非线性的变化总让人措手不及

We have to get better at understanding and reacting to exponential growth. 

As of Feb 11, the number of COVID-19 cases outside of China was fewer than 400. As I write this few weeks later, it's more than 400,000.

COVID-19 cases in New Zealand

We do have experience (and spotty success) managing the exponential growth that drives our biggest global challenges, including population, use of resources, and CO2 emissions. From the Industrial Revolution to the 2010s, these all have grown nonlinearly.

The growth of emissions is now slowing, thankfully. But, in part, because it was hard to envision what exponential growth of emissions would look like, we’ve reacted too late to avoid significant impacts on people and the planet. The same thing is happening now with COVID-19 as people are slow to dramatically cut contact with others, and so some unknown amount of suffering still lies ahead.

a Black Swan

Source:

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/is-the-covid-19-outbreak-a-black-swan-or-the-new-normal/