巴菲特谈投资、谈人生

来自巴菲特和比尔在老巴母校的访谈报道，下面摘录部分自己感兴趣的内容。
BUFFETT: Find what turns you on. Find what you have a passion for. If somebody said to me when I was getting out of Columbia, you know, that Bill's business was going to be the one that would be exciting, you know, I don't think I'd have done so well. [LAUGHTER] But I knew what turned me on. I had a professor, Ben Graham, I offered to go to work for him for nothing. He said, "You're overpriced." Nonetheless, I went into the business. [APPLAUSE] I will guarantee, you will do well at whatever turns you on. There's no question about that. Don't let anybody else tell you what to do. You figure out what you are doing. [APPLAUSE]
巴菲特： 寻找你感兴趣的领域，你对其拥有激情的领域。如果我当年离开哥伦比亚大学的时候，有人告诉我比尔的IT业会有不错的前途，我不认为自己会在这个行业中表现出色。[笑]但我知道，什么吸引我。我有位导师，本•格雷厄姆，我曾经提出为他免费工作，但他对我说，"你高估了自己"。不过，我还是投身于商界。[掌声]我保证，只要什么领域令你着迷，你就能在该领域取得成功。这点是毋庸置疑的。别让其他人告诉你该做什么。你应该自己去找。[掌声]

BUFFETT: Becky, if you had a wonderful farm and you knew the next 50 years there would be five droughts but there would be 45 good years, I mean, you would not become paralyzed thinking about the five drought years. You would recognize that you've got a system that works very well over time, and that's our American economic system.
巴菲特：Becky， 如果你有一个不错的农场，你知道今后50年将有5年旱灾、45年好光景，我的意思是说，你不会因为5年旱灾而萎靡不振。你就会觉得我们处在一个运转良好的系统里，这就是我们的美国经济体系。

BUFFETT: What's going to happen tomorrow, huh? [APPLAUSE] Let me give you an illustration. I bought my first stock in 1942. I was 11. I had been dillydallying up until then. I got serious. [LAUGHTER] What do you think the best year for the market has been since 1942? Best calendar year from 1942 to the present time. Well, there's no reason for you to know the answer. The answer is 1954. In 1954, the Dow … dividends was up 50%. Now if you look at 1954, we were in a recession a good bit of that time. The recession started in July of '53. Unemployment peaked in September of '54. So until November of '54 you hadn't seen an uptick in the employment figure. And the unemployment figure more than doubled during that period. It was the best year there was for the market. So it's a terrible mistake to look at what's going on in the economy today and then decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on it. You should decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on how much you're getting for your money, long-term value you're getting for your money at any given time. And next week doesn't make any difference because next week, next week is going to be a week further away. And the important thing is to have the right long-term outlook, uate the businesses you are buying. And then a terrible market or a terrible economy is your friend. I don't care, in making a purchase of the Burlington Northern, I don't care whether next week, or next month or even next year there is a big revival in car loadings or any of that sort of thing. A period like this gives me a chance to do things. It's silly to wait. I wrote an article. If you wait until you see the robin, spring will be over.
巴菲特： 谁知道明天会发生什么，哈？[掌声]让我给你举一个例子，我在1942年买了我的第一只股票，那年我11岁，我磨磨蹭蹭到那时才买，我开始认真了。[笑]你认为对于股市自1942年以来那是最好的一年吗？从1942年到现在的最好的一年，是哪一年吗？你大概没法知道答案。答案是1954年。1954年，道指...分红达50％。现在如果让你看一下1954年，我们生活在一个经济衰退中稍好点的时期。经济衰退是从1953年7月开始的，失业率于1954年9月的达到顶峰，因此，直到1954年11月你仍没有看到上扬的就业数字。在这一时期失业人数增加了一倍以上，对于股市，这是最好的一年。所以根据当时的经济情况来决定是否买入或卖出股票是一个可怕的错误。决定你是否买进或卖出股票的基础是你通过自己的钱想赚得多少钱，是在任何特定时间为你的钱获得的股票的长期价值，下周的情况与现在没有任何区别，下周就是一个星期后的今天而已。而最重要的是要从正确的长期观念，来评估你购买的企业。那么一个可怕的市场或一场可怕的经济衰退就是你的朋友。我不关心下周会怎样，在作出的伯灵顿北方铁路的交易上，我不关心下周或者下个月，甚至明年会有一个汽车运载行业大的复兴或者之类的事情，反而是像这样的时期给了我一个机会做交易，等待是愚蠢的，我写过一篇文章，如果你等待的话，直到你看见知更鸟才行动，春天已经结束了。

QUESTION: Mr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, thank you for being here tonight. I am Ibrahim Dolly, first year here at Columbia. I came from Portugal. I have a question for both of you. You both knew early in your careers what you wanted to do in your life. What advice do you have for those of us who are a little bit unclear?
提问：巴菲特、盖茨先生，感谢二位今晚莅临。我叫Ibrahim Dolly，哥伦比亚大学新生，来自葡萄牙。我想同时问您们两位一个问题，在一生当中您们很早就知道自己想要的工作，在这方面，对于象我们这种有点稀里糊涂的学生，您们有什么好的建议吗？

BUFFETT: First of all, I'd say marry the right person. [LAUGHTER] And I'm serious about that. [APPLAUSE] It will make more difference in your life. It will change your aspiration, all kind of things. It's enormously important who you marry. Beyond that, I would say that do what you would do if you were in my position, where the money means nothing to you. At 79, ... I work every day. And it's what I want to do more than anything else in the world. The closer you can come to that early on in your life, you know the more fun you're going to have in life and really the better you're going to do. So don't be driven where you think the last dollar is presently or anything of that sort. And then also go to work, if possible, for an organization or an individual that you admire. I mean I offered to go to work for Ben Graham because there was nobody I admired more in the business than him. I didn't care what he paid me. When he finally did hire me in 1954, I moved from Omaha to New York and I didn't know what I was getting paid until I got my first paycheck. But I knew I wanted to work for Ben Graham. And I knew I would jump out of bed every morning and be excited about what I would do and I would go home at night smarter than I was in the morning. Go to work at a job that turns you on and a person that turns you on and institution. [APPLAUSE]
巴菲特： 首先，我要说的是找个合适的人结婚。[笑]这可不是开玩笑。[掌声]它将使你的生命迥然不同，它将会改变你的梦想，以及所有的东西，记住，和谁结婚是极其重要的。除了这点外，我会问，如果你处在我的位置，你会做什么，也就是钱对你没有任何意义的时候。现在，我79岁了，每一天都在工作，而且这是世界上我最想做的事。在你越早的人生当中，你离这种状态越近的话，你就会懂得生活的更多乐趣，也生活地更幸福，所以不要被眼前的利益所驱使，然后也去上班，如果可能的话，最好为你钦佩的一个组织或个人工作。我的意思是我提到的要为本•格雷厄姆工作，因为那时在商业领域除了他没有人能令我如此钦佩的。我不关心他付给我多少薪水，当他最后终于在1954年聘请我时，我就从奥马哈直接来到纽约了，直到我领第一次工资之前，我都不知道自己的待遇是多少。但是我知道我想要为本•格雷厄姆工作，我知道每天早上我会跳着起床，对于每天要做的事情充满期待，而且当我晚上回家的时候我会变得比早晨更聪明。找一份让你兴奋的工作吧，为某个激起你热情的人或者某个机构工作。[掌声]

QUESTION: Hi, I'm Brian Seedabalker. I'm a second-year student. Mr. Buffett, it's great to see you again. I was on the trip to Omaha last month. Thank you for hosting us. My question is, how would you recommend an individual investor who follows the Graham and Dodd philosophy to allocate their capital today?
提问：您好，我叫Brian Seeda balker，大二学生。巴菲特先生，很荣幸再次见到您，上个月的奥马哈之行感谢您的款待。我的问题是，对于遵循格雷厄姆和多德投资哲学进行投资的个人投资者，今天您有何建议？

BUFFETT: Well, it depends whether they are going to be an active investor. Graham distinguished between the defensive and the enterprising and that. So if you are going to spend a lot of time on investment, you know I just advise looking at as many things as possible and you will find some bargains. And when you find them, you have to act. It doesn't -- it hasn't changed at all since I was here in 1950, 1951. And it won't change the rest of my life. You start turning pages. When I got out of school, I turned every page in Moody's 10,000-some pages twice, looking for companies. And you have to find them yourself. The world isn't going to tell you about great deals. You have to find them yourself. And that takes a fair amount of time. So if you are not going to do that, if you are just going to be a passive investor, then I just advise an index fund more consistently over a long period of time. The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Most of you don't look like you are overburdened with cash anyway. [LAUGHTER] Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. And you don't want to pay too much for them so you have to have some discipline about what you pay. But the thing to do is find a good business and stick with it.
巴菲特： 好的，这要看他们是否是一个积极型的投资者？格雷厄姆把投资者分为防御型和进取型两种类型。所以如果你要花很多时间做进取型投资者的话，你知道，我会建议尽可能多多阅读你能找得到的大量资料，你将找到好的投资标的，一旦你找到了，立即行动。这种方法没有改变-从我那时的1950年、1951年起它就没有改变过，并且在我以后的人生当中也不会改变。你要开始一页一页地阅读，当我离开学校时，我为了寻找适合投资的企业把1万多页的穆迪手册每一页从头看到尾，读了两遍，而且你必须自己来寻找它们，世界是不会告诉你伟大的交易的，你必须自己找到它们，而这需要相当多的时间。所以，如果你不打算这样做，如果你只是想做一个防御型的投资者的话，那么我建议你长期持续投资指数基金。还有一件事情我要告诉你，持有现金是最糟糕的投资，虽然大家都在谈论现金为王之类的事情，不过你们的大多数看起来不象现金过剩的样子。[笑]随着时间的推移，现金将会贬值，但是好企业将会随着时间增值。如果你不想对它们付价过高，那么你必须遵守一定的纪律，但是你要做的是必须找到这样子的好企业并牢记这一点。

BECKY: Does that mean you think we are through the roughest times? You had always kept the cash word around, too.
BECKY：这是否意味着你认为我们渡过了最糟糕的时期？而且你也总是持有很多现金啊。

BUFFETT: We always keep enough cash around so I feel very comfortable and don't worry about sleeping at night. But it's not because I like cash as an investment. Cash is a bad investment over time. But you always want to have enough so that nobody else can determine your future essentially. The worst -- the financial panic is behind us. The economic spillout which came to some extent from that financial panic is still with us. It will end. I don't know if it will end tomorrow or next week or next month. Or maybe a year. But it won't go on forever. And to sit around and try and pick the bottom, people were trying to do that last March and the bottom hadn't come in unemployment and the bottom hadn't come in business but the bottom had come in stocks. Don't pass up something that's attractive today because you think you will find something way more attractive tomorrow.
巴菲特： 我们手上始终持有足够多的现金，我觉得很舒服，不用担心晚上睡不着觉。但这并不是因为我喜欢持有现金，随着时间的推移持有现金是糟糕的投资。但是重要的是你总要有足够多的现金以避免别人可以决定你的未来。最糟糕的-金融恐慌已经过去。在某种程度上因金融恐慌导致的经济不景气还在我们身边，但它总会结束的，我并不知道是在明天或下周或下个月结束，也许一年，但这不会永远持续下去的。与其坐下来预测底部，就像今年3月份那样，那时候失业的底部没有来，经济的底部也没有来，可是股票的底部来了，还不如现在就行动，不要因为明天你会发现更有吸引力的东西，而错过了今天有吸引力的东西。

BUFFETT: It's always interesting when Bill and I appear together, they don't figure they can do what Bill does, but they know they can do what I do. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] We did both have a passion. We were doing what we did because we loved it. We weren't doing it to get rich. We probably felt if we did it well, we would get rich. But we'd have done it, you know, if somebody was slipping bread in under the door, you know, to keep us going. And so I think that passion for it is enormously important. I was lucky enough to have a couple of great teachers, particularly one great teacher. I had a great teacher in life in my father. But I had another great teacher in terms of profession in terms of Ben Graham. I was lucky enough to get the right foundation very early on. And then basically I didn't listen to anybody else. I just look in the mirror every morning and the mirror always agrees with me. And I go out and do what I believe I should be doing. And I'm not influenced by what other people think.
巴菲特： 我发现我和比尔一起出现的时候总是很有趣，他们总是觉得比尔做的他们做不了，但是他们觉得我做的他们都能做。[笑][鼓掌]我们的确都有很激情，我们做我们热爱的事，我们不是为了发财而做这些的，也许我们觉得如果我们做的很好，我们会发财的。但我们已经做了，你知道，如果有人正在往门后塞面包，你知道，我们将会继续。所以我认为激情是极其重要的，我非常幸运，我有两位伟大的导师，特别伟大的导师。我父亲是我伟大的人生导师，另一位伟大的导师是我的专业导师格雷厄姆。非常幸运我很早就有了一个良好的基础，然后我基本上可以不听从任何人的吩咐做事，我只是每天早晨看看镜子，而它总是同意我，我走入社会后只需做我认为我应该做的事，而且其他人想什么不会影响到我。

QUESTION: Hi, I'm Josh Austin. I'm a second-year MBA student. My question is for you, Mr. Buffett. Value investors, such as yourself, believe that fundamental analysis, deep fundamental analysis is critical to intelligent investing. However, you have said several times in the past that you have made very rapid capital allocation decisions, sometimes in less than five minutes. I was wondering exactly which data gave you confidence in your decision.
提问：您好，我是Josh Austin，MBA二年级学生。我想问巴菲特先生，象您这样的价值型投资者相信基本面分析，而深入地基本面分析对聪明投资是至关重要的，然而，您曾在过去多次说过您做投资决策是很短暂的，有时候甚至5分钟都不到，我想知道到底是哪些数据给了您快速决策的信心？

BUFFETT: Well, that's 50 years of preparation and five (minutes) of decision making. [APPLAUSE]
巴菲特：是的，这就是 50年准备、5分钟决策。[掌声]

BECKY: Can you just look at the spreadsheet? Can you look at an annual report and make a decision like that?
BECKY：您就是仅仅看看数据表吗？您看一份年度报告就能作出那样的决定吗？

BUFFETT: Yeah. Sometimes I can. Just take Coca-Cola, for example. I sampled the product for 60 years and then I saw a couple of key ingredients, you know, that essentially tipped the scale in terms of buying it back in 1988. But the good big decisions, they don't take any time at all. If they take time, you're in trouble.
巴菲特：是的，有时候我可以。比如可口可乐就是。我品尝了60年它的产品，然后我查看了它的几个关键指标，你知道，最重要的是1988年它回购自己的股票起了决定性的作用。但是 大的好决策根本费不了多少时间，如果决策过程很费时间的话，你就处境不妙了。