Stimulus May Not Be So Helpful To India

财政刺激措施会对印度有帮助吗？它可能起到适得其反的效果。印度政府将制定新刺激计划的任务放到即将举行的选举之后。这将造成几个月的拖延，投资者因此深感失望。但是，投资者可能本就不应该对财政刺激支出的威力抱有信心。某种程度上说，印度是一个财政支出不会有效发挥作用的经济体。减税是投资者的愿望之一，但减税可能达不到直接促进消费的效果。同亚洲其它地区一样，由于缺乏良好的福利制度，印度消费者可能会将他们所获得的补贴存下来，而不是用于消费。虽然印度企业的储蓄意愿一般低于普通消费者，但他们发现目前国内外的举债环境都很严峻。他们也可能囤积减税省下的资金，而不是将其用于支出。与此同时，印度预算赤字扩大对借款成本的影响可能会破坏印度央行提振经济的努力。照目前情形看，财政紧张可能会使任何支出都受到限制。印度目前预计，2010财年的预算赤字将上升到国内生产总值(GDP)的5.5%。这个预测还没有考虑选举后推出的支出计划可能产生的影响。尽管如此，花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)依然认为印度政府的预测太过雄心勃勃了。比如，该预测假定4月份开始新财年的名义GDP增长率接近11%，乐观地认为不会比目前的增长速度低多少。因此，债券投资者对未来可能增加债券发行感到不安，这推高了政府债券的收益率。换言之，借贷的成本增加了，这将减少印度央行的减息举措所带来的好处。信用评级机构提高了警惕。惠誉(Fitch Ratings)说，在财政的可持续性方面，印度是其最为担心的亚洲国家。当前投资者也对这个问题非常敏感。因此，更多的借款和支出可能不能给印度投资者带来他们希望得到的那种安慰。Mohammed Hadi / Andrew Peaple相关阅读中国督促印度审慎克制使用贸易救济措施 2009-02-10印度计划加大支出刺激增长 2009-01-19后萨蒂扬时代哪些印度企业受人追捧？ 2009-01-13


Would fiscal stimulus in India even help? It might actually hurt.India's government chose to leave the task of assembling a new stimulus plan until after upcoming elections. It's a delay of months, so investors are disappointed.But faith in the power of stimulus spending in India may be misplaced. In some ways, the country fits the profile of an economy for which fiscal spending won't work effectively. Tax cuts are on investors' wish lists, but benefits handed directly to consumers could fall flat. Like elsewhere in Asia, Indian consumers, lacking an adequate welfare system, are likely to stuff any dole-outs in the mattress.And though Indian companies tend to save less than consumers, they now find themselves facing difficult borrowing conditions at home and abroad. They too may hoard the benefits of tax breaks rather than spend them.Meanwhile, the impact of a wider budget deficit on the cost of borrowing in India could undermine the central bank's efforts to spur the economy. As it is, fiscal restraints could keep any spending limited. The country now forecasts its budget deficit will rise to 5.5% of GDP in fiscal 2010 - that's before the impact of any spending plans that might follow the elections.But that, Citi Investment Research says, could prove ambitious. The forecast, for example, assumes nominal GDP growth of nearly 11% in the year that starts in April, optimistic given that this isn't much slower than current growth rates.So bond investors are feeling jittery about the coming increase in bond issuance, driving up yields on government bonds. In other words the cost of borrowing has increased - unwinding some of the benefits of an interest rate cutting campaign by India's central bank.Credit rating agencies are raising red flags - Fitch Ratings says India is its top concern in Asia when it comes to fiscal sustainability - something investors are particularly sensitive to these days.More borrowing and spending, then, might not offer India's investors the reassurance they're hoping for.Mohammed Hadi / Andrew Peaple