Debt Concerns Put Brakes On Lending

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)一直在想尽办法让金融机构重新恢复放贷，而投资者也对显示美国金融机构放贷额增长的消息着了迷。美联储的数据显示，虽然银行资产负债表上的现金水平已经比一年前提高了近两倍，但过去三周美国银行业的贷款增速每周都在下降。这显示银行仍不准备放贷，或者它们的客户对借钱没有兴趣，也可能两者兼而有之。由于目前正值经济衰退，努力压缩成本的企业往往不愿意增加负债。正是由于这个原因，往往是经济衰退的最严重时刻过去好几个月后，美国商业银行的贷款增速才开始反弹。截至2009年2月份，银行贷款和融资租赁折合成年率的增速为2.86%，创下2002年9月以来的最低水平。野村证券(Nomura Securities)的首席经济学家瑞斯勒说，当经济处于困境时，企业最不想做的就是给自己增加固定成本。虽然美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)将2000-01年那场经济衰退的结束时间定确定为2001年11月，但贷款增长率直到2002年3月才触底反弹。此前的一场经济衰退结束于1991年3月，但贷款增长率直到1992年7月才开始走高。虽然贷款能够为经济活动提供动力，但经济活动也要达到一定水平才能推动贷款需求的增长。Miller Tabak的首席债券市场策略师克雷申奇(Tony Crescenzi)说，当企业准备增加员工，或者当生产开始稳定下来时，融资需求将会增长。投资者要想观察到贷款增速反弹的早期迹象，就不应只盯着贷款数据，更要关注一下库存水平以及企业高管有关市场需求改善销售额增长的言论。David Gaffen相关阅读美国企业CFO预计经济衰退还将持续14个月 2009-03-05美国企业利润增速远未恢复正常 2009-02-13美国企业盈利状况仍不容乐观 2009-02-09 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月08日11:52', 'SGR'));Shaw Group Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：SGR


The Federal Reserve has been determined to jump-start lending by financial institutions, one way or another, and news of improvement in this area has become an obsession with investors, as well.While cash levels on bank balance sheets have nearly tripled from a year ago, loan growth has declined in each of the past three weeks, according to Fed data. That suggests banks still aren't ready to lend, their customers aren't interested in borrowing, or some combination.Amid a recession, cost-conscious companies are often loath to add debt to their balance sheet. That is a reason loan growth at the nation's commercial banks tends not to rebound until several months after recessions hit their trough. As of February 2009, growth in loans and leases was rising at a 2.86% annual rate, the slowest rate of growth since September 2002.After 'tough economic times, the last thing you want to do is saddle your balance sheet with fixed costs,' says David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. The 2000-01 recession officially ended in November 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, but the growth rate in loans didn't bottom out until March 2002. The previous recession ended in March 1991, but loan growth didn't bottom until July 1992.Loans can fuel economic activity, but it takes a certain level of economic activity to fuel demand for loans. When companies are ready to expand payrolls, and 'if production stabilizes, the need for financing grows,' says Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak.For early indicators of a lending rebound, investors should focus less on loan data than on inventory levels, along with commentary from executives about improved demand or rising sales.David Gaffen