Japan's Lack Of Leaders

面临着经济危机，日本再次发现自己群龙无首。财务大臣已经因为酒后失态引咎辞职，而首相如今也是四面楚歌。Reuters日本首相麻生太郎周一公布的数据显示，日本经济出现了30多年来最严重的萎缩，而这可能只是个开始。去年第四季度日本国内生产总值(GDP)折合成年率暴降12.7%中，据摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)推算，净出口急剧下降给这一降幅贡献了10个百分点。去年12月以来的出口状况只会更糟。日本总合研究所(Japan Research Institute)预计，未来几年日本可能会蒸发两百万个工作岗位。日本需要政府大规模投资以刺激经济。日本政府已经表示，将为银行提供支撑，为企业提供援助。后续举措可能包括增加失业保险，提供更多职业培训，推出有效的公共事业项目，为节能电器和绿色能源提供减税。但即便是最温和的举措──政府去年好不容易才推出规模略超过1,300亿美元的直接财政刺激计划，也因为政治障碍而一拖再拖。执政联盟周一承诺会采取更多举措，但相比美国将近8,000亿美元和中国5,800亿美元的刺激计划，日本目前的经济刺激力度相形见绌。日本议员们周一倒是花了不少时间指责财务大臣中川昭一(Shoichi Nakagawa)在周末七大工业国(G7)财长会议的一次新闻发布会上表现拙劣，当时中川昭一口齿不清睡眼朦胧。议员们周二得偿所愿：中川昭一卷铺盖走人了。但政治僵局却依然持续。最近一次民意调查显示，首相麻生太郎(Taro Aso)的支持率跌破了10%。看来麻生太郎已经是去日无多，他的继任者将成为日本三年以来的第五位首相。这是日本政坛的惯常现象。引发最主要政治问题的官员们都来自政治世家，他们从祖辈那里继承了政坛职位──中川昭一和麻生太郎都出身于政治家庭。就在日本最需要的时候，这个国家的政坛却没有一点新血液或是新思维正在出现的迹象。James Simms相关阅读希拉里出访日本 美国做两手准备 2009-02-18日本财长酒后失态  麻生再遭打击 2009-02-17日本第四季度GDP降幅创30多年之最 2009-02-16 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月18日10:53', '601600.SH'));中国铝业股份有限公司（简称：中国铝业）英文名称：Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：上海证交所股票代码：601600document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月18日10:53', '2600.HK'));中国铝业股份有限公司英文名称：Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd.总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：香港交易所股票代码：2600document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月18日10:53', 'ACH'));中国铝业股份有限公司英文名称：Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：中国大陆上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：ACHdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月18日10:53', 'RTP'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RTPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月18日10:53', 'RIO.AU'));Rio Tinto Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月18日10:53', 'RIO.LN'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RIO


Japan again finds itself leaderless as it faces a collapsing economy. The country's finance minister has resigned after a humiliating scandal, and the prime minister is on the ropes. The country's fastest rate of economic contraction in more than 30 years, reported Monday, could be just the start of things. Plunging net exports accounted for 10 points of the 12.7% annualized drop in gross domestic product in the October-to-December quarter, according to J.P. Morgan. Since December, the export situation has only worsened. Two million jobs could evaporate in the next several years, the Japan Research Institute says. Pump priming is needed, and on a large scale. Japan has already said it will shore up banks and offer companies aid. Additional action might include increased unemployment insurance and more job training, useful public-works projects, and tax breaks for energy-efficient appliances and green energy. But political gridlock has delayed even the modest package -- slightly more than $130 billion in direct fiscal stimulus -- that the government cobbled together last year. The ruling coalition Monday promised more, but what's on the table now falls well short of the roughly $800 billion to be spent in the U.S. and $580 billion in China. Instead, the country's lawmakers spent much of Monday skewering Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa over his appearance at a weekend Group of Seven news conference where he slurred his words and appeared to nod off. By Tuesday they had what they were after: Mr. Nakagawa is packing his bags. But the political impasse lingers. A recent poll gave Prime Minister Taro Aso an approval rating below 10%. His time is running out and his successor could be Japan's fifth prime minister in three years. It's Japanese politics as usual. The officials who have caused the most political damage are political scions who inherited their jobs from their forefathers -- both Messrs. Nakagawa and Aso are from political families. There's little evidence of new blood or new thinking on the horizon just when Japan needs it most. James Simms