每个人都该知道的经济小常识

What should everyone know about economics?

每个人都应该知道的一点经济小常识

 

I think it's about time I learned a little more about how the economy works. I don't want to become an expert, just get a rudimentary understanding. What, in layman's terms and bite-sized bullet points, are the absolute must-know things about tax codes, interest rates, inflation, national debts, bubbles and bursting and all that?
 
我认为是时候该了解一下经济是如何运作的了。我并不想变成一个专家,仅仅是有一个基本的认识。像税点,利率,通货膨胀,国债,泡沫和破裂,这些都是作为一个外行人或者是一个小点,我们应该完全了解的。

Which websites or books do you suggest for someone dipping their toe into the subject?
有什么网站或者书可以推荐给这些想要涉足这些领域的?

EDIT: This answer is now featured in Business Insider: The 10 Things In Economics That Everybody Should Know
商业圈内的人给出这样一个答案:每个人都应该知道的十件经济方面的事

I have studied economics in B-school and have built a few economic tools in my startup. Here are the top 10 things you need to know in economics:
我正在B校读经济专业,并且在刚开始时,就建立了一些经济方面的工具。

 

1.Economics has two main streams - Microeconomics and Macroeconomics. Micro deals with customer behavior, incentives, pricing, margins, etc. Macro deals with broad economies and larger things such as interest rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other  stuff you see in the business column of a newspaper. Micro is more useful for the managers and macro is more used by investors. Except for points 2 & 3, I will cover macroeconomics in other points.

经济有两个主要部分,微观经济和宏观经济。微观经济是处理客户行为,动机,价格,利润等等。宏观经济是处理更宽泛的更大的事情,比如利率,国内生产总值,以及一些其他你可以从报纸经济版上看到的东西。微观经济对管理者来说更加有用,宏观经济对投资者来说更加有用。除去2、3点,我将在其他部分讲一讲宏观经济。

 

2.Law of Supply & Demand: This is the founding block of economics. Whenever supply of something increases its price decreases and whenever supply decreases price increases. Thus, when you have excess production of corn, food prices decrease and vice versa. Think of this intuitively. You will find its applications in 1000s of places. 

供应和需求的规律:这是经济的基础。当某个东西的供应量增加的时候,价格则会下降;当其供应下降时,价格则会上升。因此,当你有粮食产量富足时,食品价格则降低,反之亦然。这是显而易见的。你将发现这在任何地方都是适用的。

3.Marginal Utility: Whenever you have more of something its use for you diminishes. Thus, a $100 would be more valuable when you earn $1000/month than when you earn $1 million/month. This is widely used in setting up prices.

边缘效用:当你有很多事情,对你来说,他的作用正在减小。因此,比起你每月赚1百万美元,你赚1000美元每月时的100美元也许会更有价值。这被广泛应用于定价的时候。

 

 

4.Gross Domestic Product (GDP): This is the fundamental measure of the size of an economy. This is conceptually equal to the sum of incomes of all people in the country or sum of the market value of all goods & services produced in that country. Right now US is the biggest economy in terms of GDP at around $14 trillion. That means, $14 trillion of value is produced in the US every year.

国内生产总值:这是衡量经济的基本方法。从理论上来说,它等于国内所有人民收入总和或者是国内生产出的产品或服务的市场价值总和。现在,美国在GDP方面是经济最强的,有14万亿美元。也就是说,每年美国会创造14万亿美元的价值。

5.Growth rate: The growth of an economy is commonly measured in terms of GDP growth rate. Since GDP is a measure of national income, this growth rate is a rough proxy for how an average person's income grows every year.

增长率:经济的增长通常用GDP的增长速度来衡量。由于GDP是衡量国家收入的标准,它的增长速度可以粗略的用来代表每年人均收入增长的情况。

6.Inflation: You already know that the price of most products now are higher than in your grandfather's time. Inflation (measured in percent) is measure of how much a bunch of products have increased in price from last year. In mature economies, annual inflation is around 2% - that means on an average the prices of stuff goes up by 2% every year. The fundamental role of central banks is to manage this rate and keep it to a low positive number. Here are  the 100 year inflation numbers in the US.

通货膨胀:你已经知道了现在大多数商品的价格已经高于了你父母的年代。通货膨胀(用百分比来代表)衡量了商品相比去年价个增长了多少。在成熟的经济中,每年的通货膨胀率大约为2%,也就是说,平均价格的涨幅每年为2%。中央银行的基本角色就是管理这个比例,并且维持它在一个较低的正数。 这里是过去100年美国通货膨胀的数字。

 

7.Interest Rates: When you loan money to somebody, you expect something extra in return. This excess is called the interest. Interest rate is a positive number that measures how much excess you will get. There are bunch of rates here. In the short term, this rate is usually set by the Central Banks. Right now it is close to zero. In the long term, this is set by the market and is dependent on inflation and the long term prospects of the economy. The mechanisms in which the central banks control the short term rates is called monetary policy.

利率:当你把钱借给别人时,当收回时,你会得到些额外的东西。这个额外的东西,就被叫做利息。利率是一个正数用来衡量你将多得多少。有很多的利率。从短期来看,这个利率通常是由中央银行设定的。现在,这很接近与0.从长期来看,这是由市场决定的,并且受通货膨胀和长期经济预期的影响。中央银行来控制短期利率的原理就叫货币政策。

8.Interest Rates vs. Inflation vs. growth: There exists almost an inverse relationship between interest rates & growth and interest rates also can affect inflation directly. Thus, when you increase interest rates inflation tend to come down, along with growth. One is good and other is bad. Thus, the constant tension on setting the interest rates. In the US, Federal Reserve sets the short term rates making it one of the most watched economic news.

利率VS通货膨胀VS经济增长:在利率和经济增长中间存在了一种相反的关系。利率也可以直接的影响通货膨胀。因此,当利率增加,通货膨胀将下降,与经济增长一致。一个好,另一就不好了。因此,常张力决定了利率。在美国,联邦反设定了短期利率使之成为了最受关注的经济新闻。

9.Fiscal Policy: Government can control the economy in a big way by adjusting its expenditure. The group of mechanisms using expenditure form the fiscal policy. When government spends more it can lead to more demand and that means more price increase. This means both high growth and high inflation. And it works in the reverse too. Thus, governments try to spend more during periods of low growth & low inflation and cut spending during periods of high growth & high inflation.

财政政策:政府可以通过调节他的开支来从大的方面上控制经济。这一堆运用开支的机制就构成了财政政策。当政府花费更多,这将带来更多的需求,也就意味着价格上涨了。这就是,高增长,高通胀。反过来也是一样的。 因此,在低增长低通胀时期,政府会尝试着花费更多;当高增长高通胀时,拦截一些花费。

10.Business cycle: Economies have their periods of booms and bust in cycles of approximately 7 years long. At the start of the cycle it is a boom, then it gets to the top, then there is a contraction leading to a recession (period of negative growth and/or increasing unemployment) and finally followed up with an expansion

商业周期:经济有他自己的繁荣期和衰退期,在一个大约7年的周期中。周期的开始是繁荣,然后走向巅峰,然后会有一个收缩,引发衰退(负增长时期/失业率增加),最终开始膨胀。

​Bonus:附加

1、Opportunity Cost: When you do an activity, you tend to equate how good the activity is when compared to the alternatives. For instance, when you are working hard a Friday night on a project, you might be thinking "man, I should be doing something else." The alternative (in this case, partying with friends) has a high value, and thus your present project better be attractive. This value of the alternative is termed as an "opportunity cost" - value of what you give up. Thus, if you quit a $120K/year paying job to do a startup, your opportunity cost of doing startup is $120K/year. Your payoff should be higher than what you give up. Hat tip: Quora User

机会成本:当你做一件事情的时候,你会去与替代品对比,并权衡这件事有多好。比如说,当你周五晚上非常努力在做一个项目,你也许会想“小子,你应该去做点别的” 。这个替代品(在这个案例中,比如与朋友聚会)有很高的价值,与你现在的项目相比,更具有吸引力。这个替代品的价值就叫做“机会成本”——你放弃的价值。因此,如果你拒绝了一个12万美元每年的工作而去重新开始,那么你重新开始的机会成本就是12万美元每年。你的报酬应该比你放弃的价值高。

 

2. Comparative Advantage:  You are running your tech startup and one day a client asks you whether you can build a website for them. Should you offer to build the website for them, or should you pass up the opportunity to a friend? How do you decide? A rational person might calculate how much time they will take to build the website, and whether they can use that time to earn more building their current startup product. Then, he/she might calculate whether the friend might be able to build the site more efficiently.

比较优势:你正在进行科技创业,一天,你的客户问你是否可以为他们建立一个网站。你应该为他们建立网站吗?还是把这个机会交给其他的朋友?你要怎么决定?一般人会去计算建立这个网站要花费多少时间,并且如果他们利用这段时间建立现在的创业产品是不是可以赚的更多。然后他可能会计算是不是朋友可以更加有效率的建立这个网站。

If the friend can build it more efficiently and you have a lot in your plate, you will pass up the opportunity. This is called the theory of comparative advantage. Your friend has an advantage here and it makes no sense for you to take up that business. Nations, businesses and people should do only those things they are better at and leave the rest to others. Hat tip: Aaron Klemm

如果朋友可以更有效率的建立网站,并且你也分了一杯羹,你也许应该移交给你朋友。这就较多比较优势理论。你的朋友是有优势的,你没必要去接手这个工作。国家、商业、人应该仅仅去做那些他们擅长的事情,并把其余的留给他人。

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