The next recession
下一次经济衰退
Another economic downturn is just a matter of time. It will be harder to fight than the last one, says Ryan Avent
下一次经济衰退仅仅是时间问题，并且将比上一次来的更加猛烈，Ryan Avent 如是表示
Just south of Indiana’s border with Michigan lies the city of Elkhart, with a population of just over 50,000. Apart from a small, shop-lined high street near where one river, the Elkhart, flows into another, the St Joseph, the city is mostly shapeless, tree-lined and suburban. Scattered around the outskirts are the factories of several of America’s largest producers of recreational vehicles (rvs). Rows of the finished products rest outside the giant sheds in which they are made.
在接近印第安纳州和密歇根州边界的一座印第安纳州城市名为 Elkhart ，城市人口勉强超过 50000 人。在 Elkhart 河和其他河流交汇的地方，除乐有一条商店林立的小型街道之外，还坐落着这个城市最杂乱、又树木林立的市郊。在这郊区杂乱的坐落着全美国最大的几家旅行房车（rvs）的生产商。在那些生产厂房的外面排列着众多已完工的车辆。
Modern rvs are impressive, leather-upholstered land yachts fitted with flat-screen televisions and gas fireplaces, the perfect vessels in which to navigate the American continent. The rv business is one of the economy’s most strongly cyclical. Sales of big-ticket items like homes and cars inevitably rise and fall with the business cycle, but rvs are especially susceptible to such swings. It is only once cars and homes have been upgraded that consumers consider splashing out on rolling living quarters. And when financial fear stalks the land, rv-makers have a particularly hard time.
现代 rvs 令人惊奇，真皮包裹的路上游艇拥有大屏电视机以及燃气炉，是游览美国大陆的完美交通工具。旅行房车生意拥有经济的最强周期性之一。高价值物品类似房产和车辆的销售量随着经济周期上升或者下降，但是旅行房车却对这个波动最为敏感。只有当车辆和房屋都得到的升级的时候消费者才会考虑大额支出来购买移动的住所。于是当经济可能硬着陆的时候，rv 生产商的日子就会显得格外难过。
In Elkhart, more than a quarter of people in employment work on rvs. When the global financial crisis in 2007-08 plunged the world economy into its worst downturn since the 1930s, employment in the city’s factories fell by nearly half. The unemployment rate almost quintupled, to 20%. Incomes and population dropped. Elkhart was among the first places President Barack Obama visited after his inauguration in 2009: it exemplified the extraordinary economic challenge facing his administration.
在 Elkhart 超过四分之一的居民在 rvs 厂商工作。当 2007-08 年的经济危机使得全球经济滑落至 1930 年代以来的最低点时，整个城市工厂的就业率下跌了将近一半。失业率翻了五倍，达到了 20%。收入和人口数量下跌。Elkhart 是 Obama 总统在 2009 年就职后最先访问的城市之一，它代表了 Obama 在任期内面临的经济挑战。
But then the city edged away from the brink. By the end of Mr Obama’s first term its unemployment rate had fallen by more than half. By the end of his second, as President Donald Trump took office, the rate had more than halved again, and earlier this year it dropped to the extremely low level of 2% as Americans started to splash out on luxuries again. Companies in the area cannot fill the jobs they advertise. The good times are back.
然而这个城市慢慢的从离开了危险边缘。在 Obama 的第一个任期结束时，失业率已经降低了超过一半，在 Obama 第二个任期结束时，也就是 Donald Trump 总统就职时，失业率再一次降低了超过一半，然后在今年初，随着美国人民开始在奢侈品上加大支出，失业率降低到了极底的 2% 。该地的公司招聘不能满足需求。好日子回来了。