Coping with the 100-year-life society如何应对百岁人生社会

More than half of Japanese babies can expect to live to 100. This prospect would have horrified today’s pessimists. They worry that, as the country ages and its population shrinks, health bills will soar, the pension system will go bust, villages will empty and there will be too few youngsters to care for the elderly.

预计超过半数的日本婴儿能活到 100 岁。这一前景可能会吓坏当今的的悲观主义者们。他们担心的是，当国家开始老龄化，人口也随之萎缩时，医疗费用会暴增，养老金制度将会崩溃，村庄也人去楼空，而且也没有足够的年轻人来照料那些老人。

Yet for most people, not dying young is a blessing. Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, says he wants his country to be a model of how to make ultra-long lives fulfilling—and affordable. He talks of “designing the 100-year-life society”. But to achieve that Mr Abe, in his last three years in office, will have to adopt reforms that are far bolder than he currently envisages.

然而对于大多数人来说，活得长是个好事。日本首相安倍晋三表示，他希望自己所在的国家成为一个榜样，一个能让超长寿生活变得充实且负担得起的榜样；他还谈到了自己的“人生百年时代构想”。不过要达成这个目标，在安倍最后三年任期里，他得采取比现在的设想更大胆的改革了。

The key is to have enough people working to support those who no longer can. There are three ways to achieve this: persuade current workers to labour longer, encourage more women to enter the workforce and let in more immigrants.

解决问题的关键在于，需要有足够多的劳动人口来供养那些不再劳动的人。有三种方式可以达成这一目标：劝说目前工作的人延迟退休年龄，鼓励更多的女性参加工作以及接纳更多移民。

Japan has made progress on all three, but it is not enough. If Japanese people are going to live to 100 they will have to retire much later than 70. Women are too often stuck in part-time or badly paid jobs. Nearly 70,000 immigrants a year may sound like a lot, but Japan’s population is declining by almost 400,000 a year and there are a stunning 1.6 vacancies for every jobseeker.

日本在这三个方面都取得了进展，但这还不够。如果日本人能活到 100 岁，那么他们将来的退休年龄将会比 70 岁还要迟得多。女人们常常困于兼职或是薪水低廉的工作。每年近 7 万的移民听起来很多，但是日本的人口每年下降近 40 万，与此同时每一个求职者都对应着惊人的 1.6 个职位空缺。

An ageing society need not be a decrepit one. As Mr Abe notes, today’s elderly Japanese walk as fast as those ten years younger once did. But for Japan to stay solvent as it turns silver, he too must move faster than he has done thus far.

一个老龄化的社会不一定是一个年老体衰的社会。正如安倍指出的，如今的日本老人走路的速度和那些比他们年轻十岁的人一度一样。但要想让日本在变得白发苍苍时仍保持国家的偿债能力，他也必须采取比之前更迅速的行动了。

—————  文章来源 / 经济学人

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prospect/ˈprɑːspekt/
n. 前景，展望
e.g.
After you graduate top of your class at Harvard, your job prospects look great!
pessimist/ˈpesɪmɪst/
n. 悲观主义者
e.g.
optimist
soar/sɔːr/
v. 猛增，骤升
e.g.
Fireworks soar into the sky.
House prices soared a further 50%.
pension/ˈpenʃn/
n. 养老金，抚恤金
go bust
崩溃
youngster/ˈjʌŋstər/
n. 年轻人；少年，儿童
blessing/ˈblesɪŋ/
n. 好事，有益之事
e.g.
The dishwasher has been a real blessing.
sb's blessing
If he gives his permission, then you have my blessing.
fulfilling/fʊlˈfɪlɪŋ/
adj. 令人满足的
e.g.
a fulfilling career
envisage/ɪnˈvɪzɪdʒ/
v. 设想，展望
e.g.
What level of profit do you envisage?
workforce/ˈwɜːrkfɔːrs/
n. 劳动力，劳动大军
make progress
取得进展
e.g.
It's not finished yet, but we are making progress.
stunning/ˈstʌnɪŋ/
adj. 令人惊奇的；有魅力的
decrepit/dɪˈkrepɪt/
adj. 衰老的
solvent/ˈsɑːlvənt/
adj. 有偿付能力的
thus far
迄今为止
e.g.

We haven't had any problems thus far.

安倍政府的“人生百年时代构想”当传统的求学、工作、退休三段式人生，被新的多段式人生所取代，人们的工作和生活也都会面临新变化。有学者就曾反思，以单纯延长寿命为目标的现代医学和养老模式并不可取。

日本是人均寿命最长的国家之一，女性和男性平均期望寿命分别达到 87 岁和 81 岁。持续走低的出生率和一路高升的人均寿命让这个国家成为了一个典型的老龄化社会，而为了改进庞大的百岁人口群体的生活质量，去年安倍政府成立了名为“人生百年时代构想促进室”的部门，积极探讨如何为即将到来的“超高龄时代”做好准备。安倍政府还定期召开“人生百年构想”会议，邀请那些退休后不断学习、活跃在各行各业的老人们分享自己的经验。安倍政府希望以此来推动“人生百年构想”，倡导长命百岁最重要的是“活到老，学到老”，希望日本的老年群体不要因为年纪变大而停止思考。

      对那些有意愿继续开展事业的老年群体，安倍政府也表示愿意提供相应的岗位，鼓励企业返聘退休员工，同时吸引更多的社会资源投入老年人事业的建设中。而对于乐于颐养天年的老年人，安倍政府也在逐步完善养老体系，例如提供更多老年人生活所需的服务，鼓励老年群体消费为拉动内需贡献力量。