Dan Gilbert - The Psychology of Your Future Self
（视频链接 ↓↓↓）
未来自我的心理_未来自我的心理_网易公开课
十年前，你是一个什么样的人？十年后，你觉得你会成为一个什么样的人？
心理学家Dan发现，人们会严重低估自己十年之后的变化。
（一起来看看Dan的精彩演讲）
At every stage of our lives we make decisions that will profoundly influence the lives of the people we're going to become, and then when we become those people,we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.
在人生的各个阶段，我们都会做出意义重大的决定。但当我们成为“过来人”了，我们并不总是对过去做过的决定感到高兴。（谁没后悔过？我当时要是那样就好了，现在就能怎么怎么地了。"我当时真应该好好学习用功读书，不至于混到现在，只是一个没有文化的房地产大老板......"）
young people pay good money to get tattoos removed that teenagers paid good money to get. Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people who young adults rushed to marry. Older adults work hard to lose what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.On and on and on.The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,why do we make decisions that our future selves so often regret?
年轻人花很多钱洗去青少年时花了很多钱才做上的纹身。 （所以宁可纹机器猫也不能纹女友的名字）；中年人急着跟年轻时迫不及待想结婚的人离婚。（毕业十年，正直离婚高峰。强烈要求把当年的红包返现。）老年人很努力的挥霍着还是中年人时不停工作所赚的钱。（这就像是出国旅行换的外币，第二天的要回国了，不想办法赶紧用掉怎么行？！难道让我再来一趟么？！一场再也回不去的异乡之旅～）
没完没了。为什么我们会做出让自己将来常常后悔的决定？
Now, I think one of the reasons --I'll try to convince you today —is that we have a fundamental misconception about the power of time.
讲者认为我们对时间的力量，有错误的理解。
What I want to convince you today is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,an illusion that history, our personal history,has just come to an end,that we have just recently become the people that we were always meant to be and will be for the rest of our lives.
那么我们的错觉是什么呢？我们每个人的过去，都已经结束了， 我们已经成为了我们应该成为的那种人， 在余下的生命中也都会如此。
Here's three values.Everybody here holds all of them,but you probably know that as you grow,as you age, the balance of these values shifts.
Here's what we found.First of all, you are right, change does slow down as we age, but second, you're wrong,because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think. At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set, people vastly underestimated how much change they would experience over the next 10 years.We call this the "end of history" illusion.
讲者做了调研，结果是：首先，你们对了，随着我们年龄的增长，变化会减缓。 第二，你们错了， 因为这种变化并不像我们想象的那么慢。在我们的数据库从18岁到68岁的每一个年龄段中， 人们大大低估了在未来的10年， 他们会经历的变化。
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things. For example, personality. Many of you know that psychologists now claim that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality: neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.
现在不仅仅是价值观了。其他的方面都也有变化。比如说，人格。
人格可以分为五个基本维度： 神经质性，经验汲取度， 协调性，外向性 和道德感。
结论是同样的，即人们都低估了在未来的十年中， 他们的人格会发生多大的改变。
Now we asked people to predict for us, to tell us how much money they would pay right now to see their current favorite musician perform in concert 10 years from now, and on average, people said they would pay 129 dollars for that ticket.
And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay to see the person who was their favorite10 years ago perform today, they say only 80 dollars. Now, in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number, but we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we overestimate their stability.
这个调查很有意思，人们愿意付129美元去看他现在最喜欢的音乐人10年后的音乐会。
但是，人们只愿意付80美元，去看他们10年前喜欢的人现在的演出。（80美金相当于540.88毛人民币，我也不愿意掏了，五百多块，两罐奶粉呢！看什么演出？！）
我们沉浸于当前的喜好中，愿意为它付更多的钱， 因为我们高估了它们的持久性。
Time is a powerful force. It transforms our preferences.It reshapes our values.It alters our personalities.
时间是一种强大的力量。它改变了我们的喜好。 它重塑了我们的价值观。 它改变了我们的人格。
Human beings are works in progress that mistakenly think they're finished. The person you are right now is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary as all the people you've ever been.The one constant in our life is change.
人类还处在发展变化的过程中，却错误地以为不会发生任何改变了。 现在的你， 只是处于过渡中，转瞬即逝， 暂时的状态而已， 就像所有那些过去的你。 在我们的生命中唯一不变的就是， 变化。
总而言之，就是变！变！变！
人们总是会低估十年后的自己。不妨做个实验，如果你现在28岁，看看相较于18岁的你，改变了多少？性格、脾气、价值观、择偶标准、处世哲学、最喜欢吃的东西、最讨厌的人......反正我是全都变了。
接下来，再做个事情：想象，努力想象，十年后的你自己，是个什么样的人。她的容貌、她的气质、她的成就，她正在告诉你，现在该做什么，明年该做什么，以便怎样一步一步地变成“她”的样子 ～ 按照Dan的说法，十年之后，你只会得到一个比你现在的想象，更不一样的，你自己！
