房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)

上一篇计算得出的结论第二条非常反直觉!我觉得不对劲,所以将通胀率和LPR的变化关系进行了变化:

我假设通胀率=k/LPR,

其中设定k=通胀率初值*LPR初值

以上规定的理由是:通胀率和LPR成反相关,反相关系数为k

以下是中国指数,来源https://www.ceicdata.com/zh-hans/country/china

通过图中展示的曲线,我得出的结论是,通胀是在大多数时候发生的大概率事件,银行贷款利率一直在下调,消费者价格指数也大多数时候为正值,以人民币购买力计算的通胀在大放水的情况下,一定是远超贷款利率水平的。

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第1张图片

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第2张图片

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第3张图片

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第4张图片

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第5张图片

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第6张图片

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第7张图片

 

代码如下:

https://github.com/yangh2333/-House-property-/blob/master/CalculateHousingLoan

由以上公式,对上篇状况第二次仿真结果如下:

结论:

默认条件:通胀率 > LPR

1、依然是等额本息比等额本金划算

2、LPR下行,通胀率上行,最划算

3、月供的折现值,在LPR下行时还款压力在10年后变得十分轻松。但LPR上行,10000月供在最后变成4000,负担下降,但降幅不大,维持和社会基本工资相当。

本金 还款方式 LPR月利率/通胀率 月供 总还款

总折现款(按LPR通胀)

总折现款(按通胀率初值=2*LPR初值) 总折现款(按通胀率初值=4*LPR初值)
200万 等额本息 不变4.75% 10432 3755860 2000000 1240755 656617
降低4.75%匀降到0.5% 10432~7958 3172902 1461178 937689 549193
升高4.75%匀升到8% 10432~12655 4257985 2417233 1514984 766762
等额本金 不变4.75% 13472~5577 3428958 2000000 1330351 762237
降低4.75%匀降到0.5% 13472~5558 3026684 1562304 1060457 652957
升高4.75%匀升到8% 13472~5592 3736579 2303355 1549892 864233

+++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is        3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000116
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is        3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 1461178.4334697158
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is        4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 2417233.1574840792
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第8张图片

+++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*2++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is        3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 1240755.7268539048
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is        3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 937689.2259473074
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is        4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 1514984.474345467
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第9张图片

+++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*4++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is        3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 656617.5359742445
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is        3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 549193.8775695525
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is        4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 766762.211863819
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第10张图片

+++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is        3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000165
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is        3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 1562304.569583039
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is        3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 2303355.0064343777
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第11张图片

+++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*2++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is        3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 1330351.8914530918
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is        3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 1060457.4485369534
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is        3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 1549892.549813679
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第12张图片

+++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*4++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is        3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 762237.1675692783
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is        3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 652957.3554340274
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is        3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 864233.661418452
-------------end------------------------

房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式?本结果不支持切换成LPR决策?欢迎讨论(二)_第13张图片

 

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