Planning for Retirement 1
Walter wants to retire within the next few years.
He's been working at the same company for over fifteen years as an accountant.
During that time he's been saving his money and paying off his debts.
However, even with his savings and investments, he isn't sure that he'll have enough money for retirement.
If he doesn't, he'll have to keep on working, which depends on the company.
For now, the company is okay, but it's no longer growing as fast as it used to.
Whether or not he can keep on working will also depend on his health.
Fortunately, he's in good health, but he knows that that could change at any time.
If he fell down or had a stroke, it could force him to stop working.
If that happened, he would have to rely on his savings and other assets to survive.
Sooner or later, he knows his health will decline and he'll have to stop working.
So he needs to prepare.
Most of his wealth is in the form of company stock and the value of his home.
Both of these are at risk.
The company stock may go down, and the value of his home may also fall.
The company he works for is a pharmaceutical[ˌfɑːrməˈsuːtɪkl]制药的 company.
It develops new drugs, which is a risky business, and sells them worldwide.
It's expensive to develop new drugs, and it can take a very long time to get a new drug approved.
Without government approval, it can't be sold, which can result in a huge loss.
Another threat to the company comes from foreign competition, which is getting stronger.
The company has also started to move some of its research and production facilities overseas.
Salary levels are lower there, and the quality of foreign workers is getting better.
As a result, the company has reduced its local hiring and is no longer giving large bonuses.
One thing he is considering is to sell his shares in the company.
He could begin to sell a little at a time and reinvest the money somewhere else.
But where would he invest?
He doesn't know much about investing, and several of his friends have lost a lot by making bad investments.
Investing in real estate or the stock market could be very risky.
Planning for Retirement 2
In the best case he would make a lot of money.
If that happened, he could finally retire and enjoy a comfortable life.
On the other hand, in the worst case, his investments could result in a huge loss.
If that happened, he wouldn't be able to enjoy his retirement.
He wouldn't be able to travel or do any of the things he has dreamed about doing.
So, now he has to decide what he should do.
Should he begin to sell his stock in the company, or should he wait until he actually needs the money?
If he sold now, he would have to decide what to do with the money.
His investments could turn out well, or they could turn out to be a disaster.
On the other hand, if he decides to wait, everything will depend on the company.
The one advantage he has with this option is his being on the inside of the company.
This is especially true because, as an accountant, he has access to the company's financial data.
If things start to go badly, he can begin to sell his stock and avoid a big loss.
Otherwise, it's probably safer to keep his stock and hope that the company does well, even if its growth rate declines.
So for now, that's probably what he should do.
If you were he, what would you do?
Vocation Plans
W: So, where should we go on a vacation? What about Africa?
M: Africa? No, that's not for me. Why do you want to go to Africa?
W: I'd like to get out and see the wildlife, the drama of nature. We could see some of the great migrations.
M: Wow, you are an adventurer. What about food and diseases? What about terrorism?
W: Sure, something bad could happen, but if we never take any risks we won't have an interesting life. I don't want to have a boring life.
3. Sure, something bad could happen, but if we never take any risks we won't have an interesting life.
M: So, you think I'm boring then, right?
W: Well, you're certainly not the most exciting person. You play things safe and secure.
M: I don't mind taking a few risks, but it's got to be worth it. Watching animals migrate is something I can see in a documentary. And I don't like the idea of being around predators[ˈprɛdətərz]捕食性动物 like lions and hyenas[haɪˈinəz]鬣狗.
W: OK, my brave man. What would YOU like to do?
M: Well, I've been thinking about it. I think it would be nice to go to Paris in the fall and visit some museums. We could go to a concert and maybe see a ballet.
W: Uh! We've been to Paris before. There's nothing exciting about it and I'm tired of museums.
W: Any other ideas?
M: One place that might be interesting is in south America, Machu Picchu. It's an abandoned city way up in the mountains of Peru.
W: Yes, I've heard of it. That might be interesting.
M: Should we look into it?
W: Sure, you look into it, and I'll get some information about trips to Africa.
M: So, your heart is really set on Africa, isn't it?
W: Yes, it really is. I need something exciting in my life now. All I do is work and be with you. I need a change. Don't you ever feel that way?
M: OK, I hear you. Let's go to Africa! And don't blame me if you get sick along the way.
W: Great, you are not so bad after all. I can always depend on you.
M: Be careful! Maybe one of these days I'll surprise you.
Is Online Dating Killing Love?
A fair maiden is guarded by a dragon. A handsome prince must slay杀死 the dragon to save her. Then, magically, they fall in love and live happily ever after.
Traditional stories tend to emphasize the fantastic, magical side of love. Fate plays matchmaker媒人. Strangers see each other from across a room and instantly瞬间 know that they are destined to be together. It isn't difficult to imagine two strangers coming together and falling in love despite their differences. It suggests that love is challenging, uncertain, and incomprehensible.
But with more people using online dating services, a very different kind of love has emerged: one that is scientific, convenient, and self-directed. It minimizes risk and provides a choice, like on a menu. There is anonymity[ˌænəˈnɪməti]匿名 and the avoidance of immediate rejection立即被拒. Meeting terms条款 are negotiated online.
Online dating also allows the setting of preconditions前提条件. Computer algorithms[ˈælgəˌrɪðəmz]算法 exclude undesirable traits特征 such as the wrong hair color, race, or age. But they also exclude randomness. They reduce the chances of meeting someone different, or someone who could challenge one's romantic ideals. Instead, they find the partner we think we want and exclude everyone else. As a result, we could be missing the opportunity of a lifetime, to meet someone we would never have expected to fall in love with.
Perhaps this new way represents a more efficient form of romance. Traditional ideas of love may be enchanting - but are they useful? Loneliness and boredom are less exciting than chance encounters, but they represent the more realistic side of love. All too often people have suffered through bad dates and humiliations羞辱. If they could just choose what they wanted, wouldn't it save time and reduce suffering?
However, by choosing partners based on our preconceived先入为主 ideas, we may be indulging in沉溺于 our illusions幻想. Instead of letting ourselves grow with someone, love becomes more about looking for ourselves in the other. What if we don't know ourselves as well as we think? Perhaps love isn't about knowing what we want. Perhaps it's about being open to unimagined possibilities.
Sports Injuries
Sports injuries are injuries that happen to athletes participating in sporting events. In many cases, these types of injuries are due tooveruse过度使用 of a part of the body. For example, runner's knee is a painful conditionassociated with running, whiletennis elbow网球肘【(因玩网球等造成的)肘部发炎】 is a form ofrepetitive重复的 stress injury at the elbow. Other types of injuries, such as a broken bone, can be caused by hard contact with something.
Injuries are a common occurrence in professional sports, and most teams have a staff of trainers and close connections to the medical community.Controversy争议 has arisen at times when teams have made decisions that could threaten a player's long-term health for short-term gain.
Sports injuries can be classified as被归类为… eithertraumatic[traʊˈmætɪk]创伤的 or overuse injuries. Traumatic injuriesaccount for（比例）占 most injuries in contact sports such as soccer, rugby and American football. This is of course due to thedynamic and highcollision nature of these games. These injuries range frombruises擦伤 andmuscle strains肌肉拉伤 tofractures骨折 and head injuries.
A bruise is damage to small blood vessels which causes bleeding within thetissues组织. A muscle strain is a small tear撕裂 of muscle fibers and aligament韧带 sprain is a small tear of ligament tissue. The body's response to these injuries is the same in the initial five-day period immediately following theincident-inflammation炎症. Inflammation[ˌɪnfləˈmeɪʃn] is characterized[ˈkærəktəraɪzd] by pain,localized swelling局部肿胀, heat, redness and a loss of function. Inflammation is the firstphase阶段 of healing, and typically lasts for around five days. However, too much of aninflammatory 炎症性的 response can mean that the healing process will take longer, and a return to activity is delayed. Sports injury treatmentsare intended to是为了… minimize the inflammatory phase of an injury so that the overall healing process is accelerated.
Talking about Modals 1
Now that you're studying English at a high level, let's get a better understanding of modals.
By now you should already have a good understanding of what they mean.
Here are the modals which are used to express degrees of certainty.
These modals are used for making predictions, judgements and speculations.
They indicate how much a speaker knows about the likelihood of an event.
First, the modal "will" expresses certainty, as in " If you heat water, it will boil."
Based on what is known, the speaker is CERTAIN it will happen.
The modal "may" expresses possibility, as in "It may rain this evening, but I'm not sure."
Based on what is known, the speaker asserts that the event is possible rather than certain or impossible.
The modal "can" expresses potentiality, or ability, as in "He can afford it, but he may decide not to buy."
The modal"shall" is a bit different from the others.
"Tina shall be there" means the speaker is determined that Tina will be there.(We shall overcome all obstacles!)
In other words, the speaker is determined to get her to come and will try to influence events to make it happen.
We would never say: "It shall rain."
Nobody can make it rain, so whether or not it rains is beyond anyone's control.
If someone were to say that, it would seem as if they were claiming the power to control or influence nature.
Note that the question "Shall I open the door?"invites the person who is asked to make the decision.
Whether or not the door is opened depends on the person's answer.
In contrast, "Will I open the door?" asks for a prediction rather than a decision.
Note that these modals can be weakened or removed from reality by the use of their past tense form.
"We would go if we had more money, but we don't."
This sentence expresses the speaker's certainty of going IF they had more money, which they don't.
So the certain prediction exists, but in an imaginary or unreal situation.
The modal "might" expresses less possibility than "may", so "might go" is less likely than "may go".
The modal "could" expresses less potential than "can", and is often used in conditionals.
"If he could come" expresses less potential than "If he can come".
The sentence,"If he could come, we would all be happier" expresses the feeling that in fact he can't come.
Talking about Modals 2
Here is the second set of modals.
These modals express degrees of logical force or social expectation.
Note that none of them has a past tense or weakened form.
The first one,"must" indicates logical or social necessity.
It expresses the strongest logical or social force.
The modals "should" and "ought to" assert that something is probable or expected, but not necessary.
The modal "had better" expresses advisability.
In other words, if someone "had better" do something, they should do it or there may be negative consequences.
Therefore, "had better" has the feeling of a threat, as in "You had better be there."
This isn't the same as "You should do it", which means you are expected to do it, but without an implied threat if you don't.
One interesting rule is that no more than one modal can be used with any verb.
There are no exceptions to this rule.
Therefore, it's incorrect to say: "He will must be there."
To avoid breaking this rule, there are other words that have the same meaning, but are not modals.
In the case of "must", for example, we use "have to" as in "He will have to be there."
Similarly, we cannot say "He may can come."
Instead, we say "He may be able to come."
One last thing to note about modals.
They use the same form regardless of what the subject is.
If the grammatical subject is l, it, we or they, we use the same form, will.
We would never say "He wills be there."
But with non-modal forms, such as "have to" we must change the form to match the subject.
"He has to be there" and "I have to be there".
A Fight between Lovers
A: What's wrong? You look awful.
B: My boyfriend and I have just had another fight. I think I'm going to break up with him.
A: Hey, you've said that before. Calm down. Is that really what you want to do?
B: Yeah, I think so. I don't see any future in our relationship.
A: Is there anyone else you're interested in?
B: No, but there are some guys on the Internet who have sent me messages.
A: What? you've been online?
B: Sure, just for fun. It's nice to know that I can meet people if I want to.
A: Does your boyfriend know about it?
B: No, if he knew it, he'll be furious. He can be very jealous, and he has a violent temper.
A: Anyway, what was your fight about?
B: Oh, it's just the way he talks to me. He never shows any interest in what I'm doing or in what I'm feeling. If I have a bad headache or anything he says nothing.
A: So who started the fight?
B: He came over and wanted to kiss me, and I turned away. I told him I didn't feel anything for him right then. So then he got angry and we both blew up引爆.
B: Now we're not talking to each other.
A: Oh, is that all? That kind of thing is normal. Maybe you're overreacting.
B: No, it's just that I'm beginning to realize that I don't feel anything for him anymore. Our relationship is getting cold. I don't feel appreciated.
A: Well then, maybe you should break up for a while and start seeing other man. But be careful. If I were you, I wouldn't start seeing anybody else until I break up first.
B: Why do you think so?
A: If he sees that you're serious about breaking up, he may change.
B: Maybe, but I doubt it.
A: It could be that he feels the same way about you. Maybe he has lost interest. So it's best to find out. You need to have a serious conversation with him.
B: Hmm,you're right. Maybe it's time to really find out.
The Love Lab
How we communicate with our romantic partners can have a strong impact on the quality of our relationships. Psychologists John and Julie Gottman run the "Love Lab", where thousands of couples have been studied over the last 30 years. The purpose of their research is to determine the factors that lead to happy and unhappy relationships. From their data, they have concluded that contempt蔑视, criticism, defensiveness, and stonewalling拖延 are the most significant factors that can hurt a marriage or relationship.
Among these, contempt is the biggest predictor预测 of divorce. People who feel contempt for their partner often convey disapproval without addressing the issue提及问题. They sometimes label their partner with insulting辱骂 words such as "lazy" "stupid" or "emotional", which is particularly damaging.
Many couples try to address issues by criticizing their partner's flaws缺点 or mistakes directly. Being too direct with criticism can hurt your partner's self-esteem自尊心. Some people may react to criticism by becoming defensive and focused on winning the argument, rather than on improving themselves. Others may react to criticism by stonewalling, where they refuse to acknowledge and respond to their partner for a period of time. Unfortunately, fighting back or ignoring your partner can make it difficult to determine the root of your problems. If your partner feels that they aren't valued, it may lead to increased dissatisfaction with the relationship.
The Gottmans maintain that being aware of these factors in communication is the first step to improving a relationship. It is important to acknowledge that all relationships have issues. The goal shouldn't be to avoid these issues, but to learn to resolve them. In particular, we should avoid communicating in ways that hurt our partner's self-esteem. It is better to discuss problems in a way that is less confrontational对抗性的 and can better help your partner sympathize赞同 with your perspective观点. For example, rather than saying "Why are you ignoring me? It's rude!", one could say "l feel hurt and undervalued when I don't get a response from you." By being conscious of how we communicate with our partner, we can begin to build a healthier relationship.
The Lost City of the Incas
Machu Picchu马丘比丘 is one of the world's most impressive historical sites历史遗迹. It was built around 1450 by the Incas 印加人, who ruled most of South America at that time. They called themselves children of the Sun, the powerful god they worshipped崇拜 as the source of light and life.
Located in the Andes Mountains安第斯山脉 of Peru, at 8,000 feet above sea level, the"City of the Incas" was mysteriously abandoned just 100 years after its construction. This was when the Spanish were beginning their conquest征服 of the Inca Empire, in the 1530's. There is no evidence that the Spanish invaders ever attacked or even reached the mountaintop city, so many believe that the city's inhabitants居民 deserted the site because of a small pox epidemic天花疫情.
The city was almost forgotten until 1911 when it was discovered by an American historian, Hiram Bingham, after he heard rumors of its existence. Bingham was led to the site by local farmers and was amazed by what he saw, which seemed like an unbelievable dream. He wondered if anyone would believe what he had found. Though the surrounding jungle had overgrown长满 the site, what remained was impressive. The city had been built on a remote and nearly inaccessible mountaintop, often shrouded笼罩 in clouds. Forty rows of farming terraces梯田 hugged the steep mountainside, each over 10 feet high and linked together by over 3000 stone steps. Among the city were what appeared to be neighborhoods of homes and exquisite精致的 stone buildings that are thought to be temples. Even today, the mystery remains as to the purpose of these temples, how the city was used and what its citizens did.
Despite its remote location, Machu Picchu has become one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world. Every year, thousands of people travel to Peru to admire its magnificent stonework and breath taking design. What they see is a wonderful harmony between the city and the landscape around it that is captivating.
The Murder of Caesar
In this course, we have tried to prepare you to understand and discuss important topics that are often in the news.
Sometimes the news is good news, but all too often we learn of problems and crises 危机 (crisis的复数).
Once in a while, an event is extraordinary and will change the world.
In this lesson, we focus on an event that changed history forever.
This historic event was the assassination[əˌsæsɪ'neɪʃ(ə)n]暗杀 of the Roman leader, Julius Caesar.
We will never know how history might have been different had this event not taken place.
But we can speculate猜测 what caused it and how it might have been prevented.
One of the most famous assassinations in history was the assassination of Julius Caesar.
At the time of his death in 44 B.C., he was the leader of the Roman Empire.
His title was "Dictator for Life终身独裁者" which meant he had absolute authority for as long as he lived.
He had gained this power through his successes as a military commander指挥官.
In fact, some historians consider him to be one of the greatest military commanders in history.
Once gaining power, he fought against corruption腐败 and began to restructure the government.
For example, he increased the number of senators参议员 and changed how they were chosen.
Instead of being elected, they could be appointed, even if they were not from Rome.
These actions reduced the power of individual senators and shifted the power to Caesar himself.
In doing so, he created many enemies, especially among the aristocracy [ˌærɪˈstɑːkrəsi] 贵族阶层.
However, he also had many admirers赞赏者 who supported his efforts to end corruption.
Caesar was stabbed to death刺死 by a group of Roman senators on March 15, 44 B.C.
He was scheduled to leave Rome 3 days later to fight in another war.
He had appointed members of his army to rule the Empire while he was away.
This action angered many in Roman senate who didn’t want to take orders from听命于… Caesar's subordinates下级.
He should have been aware that many of the senators hated him, but he dismissed his security force not long before the assassination.
If he hadn’t dismissed 解雇 it, the assassination attempt might not have succeeded.
On the day of his assassination, it is reported that Caesar may have been handed a warning note as he enterd the senate.
If he did receive such a note, he didn’t read it.
It seems as if he was in a state of denial否认 and refused to recognize the danger that was facing him.
Once he had entered the senate, he was surrounded by senators holding daggers, or knives.
The first blow打击 hit Caesar in his neck and drew blood.
Then the other senators joined in and stabbed him repeatedly until he fell to the floor and died.
In total, he suffered 23 knife wounds.
With his death, power shifted to his adopted son, Octavian, who vowed revenge against 报复 the assassins.
Eventually, several of the leading assassins刺客 were either killed or committed suicide自杀身亡.
After a power struggle权力斗争, Octavian strengthened his position as leader and ruled the Empire for many years.
In the end, Caesar's attempts to end corruption failed.
JFK Assassination
One of the most historic events of the 20th century was the assassination of US President, John Kennedy.
Kennedy was the 35th president of the United States, serving as担任 President from January 1961 until November 1963.
During his time in office the US entered the space race太空竞赛 with the Soviet Union.
Kennedy pledged许诺 that the US would land a man on the moon by the end of the decade.
Unfortunately, he never lived to see this happen.
In October of 1962, the US and the Soviet Union came dangerously close to entering a full-scale nuclear war全面核战争.
This event was known as the Cuban Missile Crisis古巴导弹危机.
Kennedy's skillful handling of处理 the situation, along with that of his Soviet counterpart, Nikita Khrushchev赫鲁晓夫, helped save the world from a nuclear catastrophe[kəˈtæstrəfi].
Following this event, his approval rating in the United States improved from 66% to 77%.
To many, he was considered to be the type of leader who could build a better world.
On November 22, 1963, Kennedy's presidency 总统的职位（任期） came to a sudden and tragic end.
He was shot and killed while riding in a motorcade汽车行列 in the city of Dallas达拉斯, Texas德克萨斯州.
Kennedy and his wife were sitting in an open car, waving to a large crowd of people when he was shot.
They were sitting in an open car, with no protection, because the sky was clear.
It had rained until about 10 a.m., but then the sun came out.
If the sky hadn't cleared, there would have been a bubble top, or clear roof, on the car.
This would have prevented the assassination.
Kennedy wanted it down so that he could be closer to the crowds who were there to greet him.
Another factor that contributed to the assassination was the route of the motorcade through the city.
The route was published several days earlier in the local newspapers.
The motorcade was to pass through downtown Dallas and round a sharp corner急转弯 near the building where the assassin worked.
From that building, there was a clear view of the president's car.
If the route had been different, the assassination probably wouldn't have taken place.
The president was struck by two bullets, but it was the second one that probably killed him.
That was the fatal致命的 shot.
It opened a massive wound in his head.
Sitting beside him, his wife's last words to her husband were: "Jack, Jack, can you hear me? I love you Jack."
The assassin's quick shots were incredibly难以置信地 accurate 精确的.
If the fatal shot had been off by just a little, Kennedy might have survived.
So if any of these factors had been different, history would have changed.
Kennedy's death disillusioned使不再抱幻想 many Americans who had been inspired by his vision for the future.
With his death, a whole generation of Americans woke up to a reality where their dreams for a brighter future had been shattered粉碎.
Taking care of elderly
A: I'm sorry to hear about your father. I hope he died peacefully.
B: Emm, he knew it was coming, and he had a good life. He’ve been sick for about a year. Luckily, there wasn't much pain.
A: So how was your mother?
B: She isn't taking it well. Even though she knew it was coming, she has a hard time without him. She says the house seems so empty, and she feels useless.
A: I can imagine. Does she have many friends?
B: She has a few, but she's never been very social. Maybe she'll get out a bit more now, but I don't think that's very likely. She is also beginning to lose her memory.
A: Oh, that's too bad. My mom is losing her memory too. Sometimes she doesn't know who I am. She mixes me up with my sister.
B: Does she live by herself?
A: She did until about a year ago. Then we had her come and stay with us.
B: How is that working out?
A: It was okay at first, but now with her memory problems, it isn't working. We are thinking about putting her into a senior living community. It's expensive, but it can provide her with the support she needs.
B: We may have to do that too. My husband and mother don't get along at all. He can't relax when she is around. When I mentioned it to him, he said he would consider it, but only if it were for a very short time.
A: Well, I'm sorry you have to deal with it. It doesn't seem like there are any good choices.
B: Emm, I'm afraid that's right. We are getting older, too. There's another reminder of our mortality. We are no longer children, so now it's our turn to take care of our parents.
A: The way I see it, it's a reminder for us to enjoy life what we can. If you'd like, I can send you information about some senior communities.
B: Please do, we need some making plans.
A: There are waiting lists to get into some of them, so you shouldn't wait to apply.
The Murder of Caesar
Should a good leader be loved or feared? This question is as relevant to leaders today as it was to Julius Caesar when he took control of Rome in 44 BC. How Caesar treated his enemies is a valuable lesson on forgiveness, arrogance自大, and absolute power.
After Caesar seized power夺取政权, he had to decide how to handle those who opposed him. Roman politics had always been bloody. The previous dictator独裁者 had murdered 5 ,000 of his rivals and confiscated没收 their property after coming to power执政. Caesar's enemies expected a similar punishment.
But Caesar was determined not to rule through fear. If he were to reform the government, he would need the support of the people. So he made a fateful 致命的 decision: rather than punish or kill his enemies, he offered them mercy仁慈 and incentives 鼓励. He didn't seize their property, and he even rewarded some of them with high-ranking government positions.
However, not all of his enemies wanted to be forgiven. Caesar's rivals came from the aristocracy上层社会. Many had held power in the senate for centuries. By expanding and reforming the senate, Caesar had shifted power away from the aristocracy and taken it for himself. The high-ranking positions he had given as rewards had no real authority. For the aristocracy, to live without power was not forgiveness, but humiliation耻辱.
Caesar should have known that many senators hated him, but his arrogance seems to have blinded him. After he made himself dictator for life, he proclaimed宣告 himself a god and consolidated巩固 more power. These actions infuriated 激怒 his enemies and even his allies同盟国. However, he still considered many senators to be his loyal friends. He even dismissed his personal security force.Ironically讽刺地, when he was assassinated, it was his good friend, Brutus, who led the plot阴谋.
Perhaps it is better for a leader to be feared. If Caesar hadn't let his rivals live, he might not have been murdered. But was forgiveness the problem? Caesar's reforms took power from the aristocracy, and his arrogance angered both friends and enemies. Perhaps if he hadn't been so arrogant, or acted like a god, he would have survived.
Urban Elderly Care in India
Lack of adequate care for senior citizens老年人 is a real issue in India that cuts across超越 economic and social strata阶层. Many of us have personally lived through and experienced it with our parents andelders. Most senior citizens, especially those who live independently, are unable to get the care and trusted support they need. As a result, they compromise on让步 their needs and lifestyle. Their children or caregivers are forced to spend disproportionate time, and/or resources to support them. So much so, that many women are forced to stay away from the workforce to take care of elders at home. The imminent即将来临的 demographic人口统计学的, economic and social changes that accompany the growing population of senior citizens, together with the rising aspirations渴望 of the young, leading to more women in the workforce, are rapidly driving up the magnitude重要性 of this problem.
If we look at numbers, India is home to 115 million elderly, which is more than 8% of the population. Many of us don't realize it, but that puts India into the category范畴 of "aging' countries. While India's overall population will grow by about 40% from 2006 to 2050, the population of the oldest elderly, 80 plus, will grow 500 % over the same period. This should be enough to make one take notice.Engaging with与……打交道 the elderly will become one of the biggest areas of work in the country. Some may see this as a challenge and some as a huge opportunity.
Businesses have attempted to address处理 this only sporadically零星地, with emotional advertising that features a poignant深刻的 conversation involving an elderly grandparent. But there has been very little effort to provide products and services. The reasons for such apathy冷漠, especially among entrepreneurs企业家, are not difficult to guess. Many feel that the elderly are cynical愤世嫉俗的, not open to experiment and not willing to spend. Investors see bigger opportunities for exponential指数的 growth in addressing young, upwardly向上地 mobile consumers. Still, I'm left with the question of why aren't more products and services designed for the elderly? I sense a problem looking for a solution.
Aging Population
The world’s population is growing at a rate of a little more than 1% per year.
However, not all segments of the population are growing at the same rate.
This graph shows that the rates of growth have 3 different groups, children, adults and the elderly.
As you can see, while the population of children is fairly constant, the elderly population is increasing at the fastest rate.
This is due to very low birth rates in developed country and birth rate declines in most developing countries.
As a result of these trends, the world’s population is aging.
Between 2015 and 2050, the percentage of world’s population over 60 is expected to nearly double.
In 2015 there were 900 million people over 60; in 2050 the number should be around 2 billion.
Aging populations are becoming a huge problem in many countries, especially developing counties.
It used to be that many elderly people lived with their family and helped take care of the next generation.
They had a place to stay and people to help take care of them when they needed assistance.
Now however, many elderly people, or senior citizens, are left on their own.
This is partly the result of people having fewer children, and also because of the massive urbanization大规模都市化.
Young and middle-aged adults have left the rural 乡下的 areas for economic opportunities only available in large urban centers.
As a result, there is no one to care for the elderly who are left behind to live on their own.
This is especially true in developing countries.
With an aging population, health problems become a growing concern.
Some of the leading conditions that accompany aging include vision problems, hearing loss, diabetes糖尿病 and dementias痴呆症 such as Alzheimer's disease阿尔茨海默病.
These problems can lead to disabilities that make it difficult to live without assistance.
With diseases such as Alzheimer's, people lose their memory and are unable to recognize their own children.
Worldwide, more than 46% of people aged 60 and over have disabilities.
Getting meals and medical care, for example, becomes both expensive and difficult.
As a result, the cost of providing services to the sick and disabled can become a huge problem.
Dependency Ratio 赡养比率／抚养比率
In economics, the dependency ratio shows the relationship between the number of people not in the labor force and those in the labor force.
Those not in the labor force are the dependent part of the population.
Those in the labor force are the productive part of the population.
A high dependency ratio means that there are fewer working people to support health, social security and education services, which are used by the dependent sectors of a population.
This number is calculated by adding together the total number of young and old people and dividing that number by the number of working age people.
Sometimes the dependency ratio is presented in two parts.
One part focuses on the ratio between children and the working age population.
This is the dependency ratio for the young.
The other is the ratio between the elderly and the working age population, which is the dependency ratio for the old.
It shows the ratios at 3 different points of time, 2000, 2015 and 2050.
Here are some dependency ratios for the old in 5 countries, China, India, Japan, the US and the UK.
Note that the greatest percentage change from 2015 to 2050 is for China.
The dependency ratio nearly triples from 13.1 to 39.
The other counties show gains, but as a percentage increase, they are less.
In Japan, the ratio increases from 43.6 to 71.8 which is less than double.
The life expectancy预期寿命 for Japan in 2050 is predicted to be 93, which is the highest of these countries.
A high life expectancy obviously increases the dependency ratio.
And note that the dependency ratio ignores the fact that those counted in the elderly segment of a population are not necessarily dependent.
An increasing proportion of them are working, and many of those in the working age segment may not be working.
So this way of calculating the dependency ratio in the country can be misleading.
By pointing this out, we can see the danger of using such numbers to make policy without understanding how they are calculated.
In the end, details are important.
John's Resignation
CEO: So what is it that you wanted to see me about, John?
John: I thought it would be good for us to have a heart-to-heart conversation.
CEO: You're unhappy with how things are going, right?
John: Yes, I am. But I don't want others in the company to know. I thought we should meet outside.
CEO: Ok, so what are you thinking?
John: To be perfectly frank, I’ve decided that it doesn’t make sense for me to stay with the company. You are the CEO, but I don’t agree with how you’re handling things. I can no longer support you.
CEO: Hmm, OK, I have suspected that for quite a while.
John: I’m still happy to support the company if I can, of course, but I’d like to work elsewhere. There's a start-up that has contacted me, and I’m planning to join them as soon as I can.
Waitress: Are you gentlemen ready to order?
John: No, not yet. Could you come back in a few minutes?
Waitress: Certainly, sir.
CEO: Well, we are going to miss you. There's nothing I can say that would change your mind?
John: No, it’s too late for that. I no longer have confidence in your decisions. Your latest business plan, for example, makes no sense at all. It makes us weaker in the area where we are strong, and it takes us in some new areas where we can’t compete.
CEO: Well, that’s where we disagree.
CEO: So, if that’s the way you feel about it, I agree that it’s best that you work somewhere else. Still, I hope we can count on依靠 you when we need you for something.
John: Sure, keep me informed and let me know if and when I can be useful.
CEO: I will. So how do you propose that we should communicate this to the company?
John: I will write up something and you can review it. I’ll make it sound as positive as possible.
CEO: OK, thanks. I’m sure it will come as a shock to many. Things are already difficult enough.
John: I know and maybe I’m wrong. Maybe your plan will work. If so, I will be the first to congratulate you. Are you ready to order?
CEO: Sure, though I don’t feel like eating much.
John: Waiter.
Global Life Expectancy 预期
People today are living longer than at any point in human history.Virtually事实上 every country enjoys a higher life expectancy than it did in the 19th century. In 1870, the average person could expect to live for 30 years. By 2015 that number had increased to 71, more than doubling.
The West was the first region to see an increase in life expectancy. Scientific discoveries led to a growing awareness of germs微生物 and disease. New medicines and treatments were developed, and people adopted more hygienic卫生的 lifestyles. Public health measures were a major factor. During the 20th century, the average lifespan寿命 in the United States increased by more than 30 years, if which 25 years can be attributed to advances in public health.
Between 1900 and 1950, Europe’s life expectancy grew from 43 years to 65 years. However, this did not reflect the experience of the rest of the world, which largely remained impoverished贫困的 and underdeveloped. In 1950, Asia’s average life expectancy was 42 and the Africa’s was 36. In the following decades, living conditions in both continents improved, along with life expectancy. As Asian economies grew, people had better access to health services and greater quantities of food. In Africa however, several countries did not see significant economic growth, but still enjoyed a growing life expectancy. This was due to better access to medicines and vaccines疫苗. As of 2015, the life expectancies of Asia and Africa were about 72 and 60 years respectively.
In all countries, some facts are universal, including higher mortality死亡率 rates associated with childhood. Therefore, life expectancy increases with age. Economics condition also affect life expectancy. For example, in the UK, life expectancy among the wealthiest is several years higher than among the poorest. This may reflect factors such as diet and lifestyle, as well as access to medical care.
And finally, women enjoy an advantage over men. Females have a higher survival rate from birth to old age. Of individuals aged 110, 90% are women. In fact, for almost all animal species except birds, females have higher survival rates than males.
Virtual Heaven
If you could live forever, would you want to? The challenge of keeping your body alive seems impossible, but some scientists are working on an alternative. They want to create a digital copy of your “self” and keep that copy “alive” long after your physical body has stopped functioning.
In effect, their plan is to clone a person electronically. Unlike ordinary physical clones –which have identical完全相同的 features as their parents, but which are independent organisms生物体, each with a different conscious self有意识的自我– your electronic clone would believe itself to be you.
One plan relies on the development of nano technology纳米技术. Ray Kurzweil, a leading futurist未来主义者, predicts that within two or three decades we will have tiny transmitters发射器 that can be injected into the brain. How might this be possible? Once there they would line up排队等候 alongside neurons神经细胞 and monitor the details of the brain’s activity. They would then be able to transmit that information to receivers inside a special helmet, allowing us to map the brain.
As a further step, Kurzweil foresees using these tiny transmitters to connect you to a world of virtual虚拟的 reality. With the transmitters in place, you could think your way onto the internet. Instead of seeing pictures on a screen, you would see them in your mind. Rather than send emails to your friends, you could meet them on some virtual tropical热带的 beach and exchange messages in “virtual person”.
For a futurist like Ray, this would be heaven, a virtual heaven. Once you upload the brain onto the Internet and log on to that virtual world, your body can be left to decompose分解 while your virtual self can play games for as long as you wish.
However, there is still a problem. To exist on the net, your virtual self will have to reside on the computer of a web-hosting网站托管 company. These companies want to be paid real money, or they will delete your “self” and sell the space to someone else. With your body long gone how you pay?