2020-04-06

00:00-01:18

How the economic machine works in 30 minutes.

The economy works like a simple machine but many people don’t understand it or they don’t agree on how it works, and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering.

经济运行像简单的机器，但是很多人不理解或者不同意它的运行方式，这导致了很多没有必要的经济困难。

I feel a deep sense of responsibility to share my simple but practical economic template. Though it’s unconventional, it has helped me to anticipate and to side step the global financial crisis and it has worked well for me for over 30 years.

我感受到很深的责任去分享我的简单但实用的经济模型。尽管它不是传统的经济模型，但是帮助我预测并避免了全球经济危机，且30多年来对我一直很有用。 

Let’s begin. Though the economy might seem complex, it works in a simple mechanical way, it’s made up of a few simple parts and a lot of simple transactions that are repeated over and over again a zillion times.

让我们开始吧。经济或许看起来复杂，但是它是以一种简单的机械方式运行的，由一些简单的零部件和许多简单的交易一遍又一遍的重复无数次。

These transactions above all else are driven by human nature and they create three main forces that drive the economy. Number one, productivity growth. Number two, the short term debt cycle. And number three the long term debt cycle.

这些交易首先由人类天性驱动的，交易产生了3个主要的经济驱动力。第一，生产力增长。第二，短期债务周期。第三，长期债务危机。

We’ll look at these three forces and how laying them on top of each other creates a good template for tracking economic movements and figuring out what’s happening now. Let’s start with the simplest part of the economy, transactions.

我们将介绍下这三个经济驱动力，以及它们是如何相互组合创造出一个好的经济模型可以追踪经济波动，并且理解发生了什么。 我们先从最简单的经济零部件“交易”开始。

翻译：单词&句子

side step: to step to the side in order to avoid something, especially being hit 

eg. step step the basketball...

suffering:  economic suffering/ pain suffering

经济学知识：

文本提到了三个主要的经济学驱动力，productivity growth , short term debt cycle, long term debt cycle ; how machines works 主要是围绕这三个驱动力展开。如果经济是一台简单的机器，那么它首先是由什么零部件组成的呢------交易。 期待后续交易和驱动力之间的配合。