第三编 货币与银行
第十九章 货币、信用和利率
章节大纲
一、问题的性质
Interest accrues as the difference between what a producer pays upfront for inputs versus the total revenue he receives for the product (down the road). Up till now in the book, we have studied the forces that can change the exchange ratio between money and consumer goods, or what are called goods of the first order. Now we will investigate whether changes in the supply of and demand for money can affect the money-prices of goods of higher orders (i.e., producer goods) to a different extent.
利息源自生产者预先支付的投入费用与（未来的）产品获得的总收入之间的差额。到目前为止，在书中，我们已经研究了可以改变货币与消费品或所谓初级商品之间的交换比率的因素。 现在，我们将研究货币供求的变化是否会在不同程度上影响高级商品（即生产品）的货币价格。
Tooke, Fullarton, and other members of the Banking School thought that the banks had no power to influence prices, because any excess issue of fiduciary media would be immediately returned to them. Yet Lord Overstone, Torrens, and other members of the Currency School thought otherwise. They correctly recognized that by lowering the rate of interest, the banks could induce the public to accept more fiduciary media. This is the mechanism through which bank credit policy can influence the purchasing power of money and the rate of interest.
图克（Tooke）、富拉敦（Fullarton）和银行学派的其他成员认为，银行没有权力影响价格，因为任何过度发行的信用媒介都会立即退还给它们。 然而，奥弗斯特朗（Overstone）勋爵，托伦斯（Torrens）以及货币学派的其他成员却持不同看法。他们正确地认识到，通过降低利率，银行可以诱使公众接受更多的信用媒介。这是银行信贷政策可以影响货币购买力和利率的机制。
二、货币存量、货币需求比率变动与利率波动之间的关系
There are three senses in which variations in the stock of and demand for money can influence the rate of interest. First, in the case of metallic currency, such variations can directly affect the rate of interest by directly affecting the subsistence fund. For example, a fall in the demand to hold gold as money, will release gold into industrial purposes and thereby make the community wealthier, in the same sense as if the amount of wheat stored in silos had increased.
在三种意义上，货币存量和需求的变化会影响利率。首先，在金属货币的情况下，这种变化可通过直接影响生活基金而直接影响利率。例如，将黄金作为货币持有的需求下降，会释放黄金到工业用途中，从而使社区变得更加富裕，就如同储存在粮仓中的小麦数量增加一样。
Variations in the stock of and demand for money can influence the rate of interest indirectly and in the long run, by permanently changing the distribution of property and income. For example, a reduction in the stock of money could redistribute wealth into the hands of creditors, who tend to save more. Thus the rate of interest would be permanently lower because the overall rate of saving would have increased.
货币存量和需求的变化可以通过永久性地改变财产和收入的分配，而间接和长期地影响利率。 例如，减少货币存量可以将财富重新分配给倾向于储蓄更多的债权人。因此，利率将永久性降低，因为总的储蓄率将会增加。
Finally, variations can influence the rate of interest in the short run as prices adjust to the new realities of the stock of and demand for money. When prices are generally rising, the rate of interest tends to be higher, as entrepreneurs are willing and able to offer more to borrow money. (Nowadays this is called a purchasing power or inflation premium in the contractual rate of interest.) When prices are falling, the rate of interest tends to be lower.
最后，随着物价适应货币存量和货币需求的新现实，这种变化会在短期内影响利率。当物价普遍上涨时，由于企业家愿意并有能力提供更多的借贷资金，因此利率会趋于升高。（如今，这被称为合同利率的购买力或通货膨胀溢价。）当价格下跌时，利率会趋于降低。
三、均衡利率与货币利率的关系
When the banks issue more fiduciary media, the immediate result is a reduction in the rate of interest. Because the banks typically invest the new issue themselves, or lend it to businesses for productive investment, the subsistence fund tends to increase and the rate of interest will remain permanently lower than the original level (though not as low as it was after its initial drop). However, there is no quantitative relationship between the amount of new fiduciary media issued, and the fall in the interest rate. Indeed, no matter how much new money the banks create and lend out, they will never force the contractual rate of interest below zero percent.
当银行发行更多信用媒介时，直接结果就是利率降低。 由于银行通常会自行投资新发行的债券，或将其借给企业进行生产性投资，因此生活基金往往会增加，并且利率将永远低于原来的水平（尽管没有最初下跌后的水平低）。但是，新的信用媒介发行数量与利率下降之间没有定量关系。事实上，无论银行创造和借出多少新货币，它们永远不会迫使合同利率低于0％。
The gratuitous nature of credit refers to the fact that the banks can push down the rate of interest apparently at will. Are there any forces tending to reestablish the natural premium of present versus future goods? Wicksell argued that if the banks push the Money Rate of Interest below the Natural Rate of Interest, that forces will eventually restore the Money Rate back to the Natural Rate. But his argument for why this should occur is unsatisfactory.
信贷的无偿性是指银行显然可以随意压低利率。是否有任何力量倾向于重建当前商品相对于未来商品的自然溢价？维克塞尔（Wicksell）辩称，如果银行将货币利率推低至自然利率以下，那这种力量最终将使货币利率恢复至自然利率。但是他关于为什么会发生这种情况的论点并不令人满意。
四、信用发行银行的利息政策对生产的影响
As Böhm-Bawerk explained [see Technical Notes], the rate of interest governs the time for which resources are “tied up” in production processes. The lower the rate of interest, the longer the processes that entrepreneurs will select. In equilibrium, the money rate of interest equals the natural rate, and entrepreneurs invest resources in processes such that their fruits (consumption goods) are completed just as the available savings (subsistence fund) is exhausted. It is technically possible to lengthen the structure of production, but without additional savings, the subsistence fund will not be able to feed the workers while they labor in the longer processes.
正如庞巴维克（Böhm-Bawerk）所解释的（见技术说明），利率决定了生产过程中资源“被占用”的时间。利率越低，企业家所选的过程就越长。在均衡状态下，货币利率等于自然利率，企业家将资源投入到生产过程中，以使他们的成果（消费品）在可用储蓄（生活基金）耗尽时完成。从技术上讲，延长生产结构是可能的，但如果没有额外的储蓄，生活基金将无法在工人从事较长时间的劳动时养活他们。
When the banks lower the money rate of interest by issuing fiduciary media, they induce entrepreneurs to act as if the subsistence fund had really grown (when in fact it has not). Entrepreneurs borrow money at the lower rates, hire workers, and try to bid away resources from others to begin longer-term processes. A general boom period ensues, where most people feel prosperous.
当银行通过发行信用媒介降低货币利率时，它们会诱使企业家表现得好像生活基金确实增加了（而事实上却没有增加）。企业家以较低的利率借钱，雇用工人，并试图从其他人那里抢走资源以开启长期的生产过程。随之而来的是一个普遍繁荣的时期，大多数人都感受到繁荣。
Yet because the issue of fiduciary media doesn’t actually make society richer, the boom must necessarily come to an end. There are physically not enough savings to carry society forward, until the time when the new (longer) processes yield their final consumption goods. A bust (what we now call a recession) sets in. As the output of consumption goods declines, their prices rise. Realizing their errors, the entrepreneurs discontinue those projects that were only apparently profitable, because of the false interest rate. The prices of producer goods fall, and the money rate of interest returns to the natural rate.
然而，由于信用媒介的发行实际上并没有使社会变得更富裕，因此繁荣必然会结束。在新的（更长的）生产过程产生最终消费品之前，实际上没有足够的储蓄来推动社会的发展。一场萧条（我们现在称之为衰退）到来。随着消费品产量的下降，其价格随之上涨。企业家们意识到自己的错误，他们停止了那些由于错误利率的误导在表面看上去有利可图的项目。生产资料价格下跌，货币利率回归自然利率。
五、信用和经济危机
In practice, the bust occurs when the banks slow down their issue of further fiduciary media, thereby allowing the money rate to rise toward its proper level. Yet even if the banks stubbornly tried to hold the money rate down, eventually they would fail. The growing expansion of the quantity of money in the broader sense drives prices higher and higher, and lenders insist on greater and greater premiums in the contractual rate of interest. The longer the banks hold the money rate below the natural rate, the worse is the eventual crisis.
实际上，当银行放慢进一步发行信用媒介的速度，从而允许货币利率上升到适当的水平时，经济萧条就会发生。然而，即使银行顽固地试图压低货币利率，它们最终还是会失败。广义货币数量的不断增长驱使物价越来越高，贷款人坚持要求越来越高的合同利率的溢价。银行将货币利率控制在自然利率以下的时间越长，最终的危机就越严重。
技术说明
- Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk was a successor of Menger and a predecessor of Mises in the development of Austrian economics. One of Böhm-Bawerk’s great contributions was to explain the capitalists’ interest income as a premium given to present versus future goods. For example, suppose consumers would pay $50 for a mature Christmas tree, but would only pay $40 for an airtight claim guaranteeing them a mature Christmas tree to be delivered in twelve months. If these were the final prices as determined by consumers’ subjective preferences, then the market price for an immature tree—one that needed another year to fully develop—would be $40 as well. Assuming nothing else changed, a capitalist who invested $40 in such a tree could wait one year, then sell the mature version for $50, netting a 25 percent annual return on his capital. Thus Böhm-Bawerk explained the ability to earn interest over time as due to the underlying subjective preference for present versus future goods. A capitalist who buys factors of production invests in “future goods” which then grow in market value as they ripen into “present goods.” Also note that the term “ripen” is not reserved for agricultural products: Böhm-Bawerk would say that a capitalist can invest (say) $100,000 in lumber, shingles, labor, and other inputs which represent a future house. Over the months, as the house is built, the goods-in-process gradually become a present house, and hence command a higher market value than the initial $100,000 investment.
- 欧根·冯·庞巴维克（Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk）是门格尔（Menger）的继承者，也是米塞斯发展奥地利经济学的前辈。庞巴维克的一个伟大贡献是将资本家的利息收入解释为当前商品对于未来商品的溢价。例如，假设消费者们愿意花50美元购买一棵长成的圣诞树，但如果换成无风险的保证他们可以在十二个月内获得一棵长成的圣诞树的索取权，他们只愿意花40美元购买。如果这些价格是由消费者的主观偏好决定的最终价格，那么一棵未成熟的树的市场价格（还需要一年才能完全长成）也将是40美元。假设没有其他变化，在这样一棵树上投资40美元的资本家可以等待一年，然后以50美元的价格出售长成的树，他的资本年回报率为25%。因此，庞巴维克解释说，随着时间的推移而获取利息的能力，来自于当前商品对于未来商品的潜在主观偏好。购买生产要素的资本家投资于“未来的商品”，当它们成熟为“现在的商品”时，其市值就会增长。还要注意，“成熟”一词并不是专门用于农产品的。庞巴维克会说，资本家可以投资（例如）100,000美元在木材、板瓦、劳动力和代表未来房屋的其他投入方面。过几个月后，随着房屋的建造，半成品逐渐变成现房，因此其市值高于最初的100,000美元投资。
- In explaining the boom and bust cycle, Mises relies on Böhm-Bawerk’s capital theory. Böhm-Bawerk viewed the use of capital goods as a “roundabout” way of satisfying goals. For example, if someone wants to get coconuts from tree branches, a direct approach is to climb the tree and grab them with his bare hands. Yet a more roundabout (and physically productive) approach is to spend some time gathering sticks and vines, in order to construct a long pole. Then with this capital good, the person can knock down far more coconuts per hour of his labor. The tradeoff then is between getting more physical output per unit of labor, versus getting the coconuts sooner rather than later. (If the person is ravenous and wants to eat a few coconuts as quickly as possible, he will just climb the tree rather than search for sticks.) Böhm-Bawerk argued that the rate of interest reflected the community’s preferences for the timing of consumption as well as the technical opportunities for increased output resulting from further lengthening (or making more roundabout) the methods of production. If some people in the community saved more (by stockpiling coconuts, say), then the workers would be able to eat while production shifted out of tree-climbing and into pole-production. The savings would have augmented the subsistence fund to tide everyone over until the higher output of the more roundabout processes came online. The rate of interest in this scenario would permanently decline, and society would advance to a permanently higher standard of living, as workers could gather more coconuts per hour with the use of their new tools.
- 在解释繁荣和萧条周期时，米塞斯赞同庞巴维克的资本理论。庞巴维克认为，资本品的使用是实现目标的一种“迂回”方式。例如，如果某人想从树上获得椰子，直接的方法是爬树并徒手抓住它们。然而，一种更迂回的（而且本质上更富有成效的）方式是花一些时间收集树枝和藤蔓，以建造一根长杆。然后，有了这种资本品，此人每劳动一小时可以收获更多的椰子。这其中的权衡，是选择每单位劳动量获得更多的实际产出，而放弃尽早获得椰子。（如果这个人非常饥渴，想尽快吃到椰子，他会选择爬树而不是寻找木棍。）庞巴维克认为，利率反映了社区对消费时机的偏好，也反映了由于进一步延长（或更迂回）生产方式而增加产出的技术机会。如果社区中的一些人有了更多储蓄（例如通过储存椰子），那么工人将能够在生产方式从爬树转向长杆生产的同时有东西吃。这些储蓄本可以增加生活基金，让每个人都受惠，直到迂回生产的更高产出上线。在这种情况下，利率将永久下降，社会将永远性提高生活水平，因为工人们可以使用新工具每小时收集更多的椰子。
新术语
Interest: Income accruing to the owner of future goods as they mature into present goods, due to the higher valuation placed on present versus future goods.
利息：由于当前商品相对未来商品的估价较高，当未来商品到期成为当前商品时，其所有者应计的收入。Goods of the first order: Consumer goods.
初级商品：消费品。Goods of higher orders: Goods used to produce consumer goods. (A capital good used to produce a consumer good is a second-order good. A capital good used to produce a second-order good is a third-order good, etc.)
高级商品：用于生产消费品的商品。（用于生产消费品的资本品是二级商品，用于生产二级商品的资本品是三级商品等）Subsistence fund: A concept used by Böhm-Bawerk to denote the savings the capitalists must have first accumulated, in order to feed and otherwise support the workers as they engage in time-consuming production processes.
生活基金：庞巴维克（Böhm-Bawerk）使用的一个概念，表示资本家必须首先积累储蓄，以便在工人从事耗时的生产过程中养活他们并以其他方式支持他们。Purchasing power/inflation premium: An increase in the contractual rate of interest due to the expected rise in prices.
购买力/通货膨胀溢价：由于预期价格上涨而使合同利率上升。
研究问题
What is “the problem,” the nature of which is outlined in section 1? (pp. 339–46)
第一节中概述了问题的本质，这个“问题”指的是什么？（英文版第339-346页）Why might the distribution of income and property alter the long-run rate of interest? (p. 347)
为什么收入与财产的分配会改变长期利率？ （英文版第347页）If the Money Rate of Interest is pushed below the Natural Rate of Interest (or more accurately, the normal rate of interest), what happens to commodity prices, according to Wicksell? (p. 355)
根据维克塞尔（Wicksell）的说法，如果将货币利率被推到自然利率（或更准确地说，是正常利率）以下，那么商品价格将如何变化？（英文版第355页）What are the two main mechanisms by which the money rate of interest rises back to the natural rate, after having been pushed down by the banks? (pp. 362–63)
在银行推低利率后，利率回升至自然利率的两种主要机制是什么？ （英文版第362–363页）Explain:“Certainly, the banks would be able to postpone the collapse; but nevertheless . . . the moment must eventually come when no further extension of the circulation of fiduciary media is possible. Then the catastrophe occurs....” (p. 365)
解释：“当然，银行可以推迟破产的时间。尽管如此，当信用媒介的发行量不可能进一步扩大时，这一时刻终将到来，然后灾难就发生了……”（第365页）