Advanced manufacturing can thrive, as Grand Rapids shows
正如 Grand Rapids 所展示的那样，先进的制造业可以蓬勃发展。
Midwesterners still like to make stuff. Manufacturing may have slid , but they do more of it than other Americans. In indiana, it makes up 29% of gross state product (and employs 17% of workers). In Michigan it is 19% (and 14% of jobs). In each of the“core” eight states, it is above the national average of 12% of gdp. Companies plug into supply chains for car, aviation and retail industries, or for medical equipment, machine parts and the energy industry. Older-style work, such as furniture-making, persists.
美国的中西部人仍然喜欢制造东西。制造业可能下滑了，但他们比美国其他地方的人做的多。在印第安纳州，这是其生产总值的29%（雇佣了17%的工人）。在密歇根州，占经济总值的 19%（雇佣了14% 的人）. 核心八州的任何一个，GDP都高于美国平均值 12% 。公司参与了汽车、航空和零售行业的供应链。或者医疗设备、汽车零部件和能源供应链产业。老式的工作，像家具制造业，仍然存在。
Yet the mass employment of low-skilled workers has largely gone. That hurts those diverted to low-paid work in services. Tony Flora, a union leader in South Bend, asks “How can you provide a middle-class way of life if the jobs are serving omelettes in a restaurant?” Harvard’s Edward Glaeser observes that, as recently as 2000, manufacturing was the largest employer nationally of lower-skilled workers. Now it is one of the smallest .
然而，大量低技能工人的就业岗位已经大面积消失。这伤害了那些转向服务行业的低收入人群。South Bend 工会的领袖Tony Flora 问道：“如果你的工作是在餐厅做鸡蛋灌饼，你将如何提供一个中产阶级的生活方式？”哈弗大学的 Edward Glaeser 指出，在 2000年，制造业还是全美低技能工人的最大雇主，现在 这是最小的之一。
Paul Krugman, an economist, suggests that rising economic nationalism, confrontation with China and pandemic-induced anxiety over supply chains could nudge some manufacturing back to the Midwest. Sherrod Brown, a senator from Ohio, sees this as a golden opportunity. Any recovery would be centred on those with skills in science, technology, engineering or maths (stem). Bruce Katz and Jeremy Nowak from Brookings say stem-related jobs (mostly in manufacturing) are better paid than average, employing 9% of Americans but contributing 17% of gdp
经济学家 Paul Krugman 认为，日益高涨的民族经济主义、和中国的经济对抗、疫情引发的对供应链的焦虑，可能会推动一些制造业重返中西部。Ohio 州的参议员 Sherrod Brown 认为这是一个千载难逢的机会。任何复苏都将集中在那些拥有科学、技术、工程、数学等技能的专业人才身上。Brookings 的 Bruce Katz 和 Jeremy Nowak 表示，理工科的相关工作 （大部分在制造业）的收入高于平均水平。雇佣了 9%工人却贡献了 17% 的 GDP。
Training does not have to mean four-year degrees. Instead what is needed are vocational skills that can be taught simultaneously by companies and colleges. Scot McLemore, of Honda, praises the community college in Columbus, Ohio, noting that “there are no more skilled trades, we need multi-craft technicians”, such as the computer savvy. David Harrison, who leads the college, says his 60 trainees study for two days a week in class and work for three at a firm. “Five years ago there was no path for this, now 30 manufacturers are in the programme.” It is an attempt at a German-style apprenticeship scheme
培训并不一定意味着4年的学位。相反，需要的是同时被公司和学校培养出来的职业技能。Honda 的Scot McLemore 赞扬了哥伦比亚州的 社区大学。指出：“我们不需要很多的贸易高手，需要的是大量的专业技术专家“，比如精通计算机。该学院的负责人 David Harrison 说到， 他的60名实习生需要每周到教室里学习两天，到公司里面工作三天。五年前这是没有出路的，现在有 30家制造商加入了进来。这是一个德国学徒制式的尝试。
How can Midwesterners develop more advanced manufacturing? An example of what to avoid is in Mount Pleasant village, in southern Wisconsin. A 20m-square-foot factory complex, planned in the past two years, belongs to Foxconn, a Taiwanese giant. In 2018 Donald Trump, wielding a golden shovel, vowed it would be the “eighth wonder of the world”, employing 13,000 factory workers on high wages. Supposedly Wisconsin’s economy would gain $51bn over 15 years. He talked less about promises to Foxconn of billions of dollars in subsidies
中西部如何发展更先进的制造业？Wisconsin 州南部的 Mount Pleasant village 就是一个典型的负面例子。属于台湾巨头富士康的一个2000万平方英尺的综合厂区，已经被规划了两年。在2018年 特朗普挥舞着一把金铲子，发誓说这将是世界第八大奇迹，将高新雇佣 13000名工厂工人。据推测，Wisconsin 州在未来15年将会获得 510亿美元。但他却对承诺富士康每年数十亿美元补贴的事情，只字不提。
The project always had a Potemkin air. It was a mystery what Foxconn would make,though television screens were talked of. It was rushed through as the showpiece of a manufacturing renaissance in a swing state. But Tim Bartik, at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in Michigan, says it was misconceived. The subsidies were ten times bigger than usual as a share of future wages, suggesting the underlying economics made no sense. Foxconn now talks of innovation and research instead
这个项目总是有些 Potemkin （俄国女皇叶卡捷琳娜二世的情夫波将金，为了使拜女皇对他领地的富足有个良好印象，不惜工本，在“今上”必经的路旁建起一批豪华的假村庄。 ）的味道。富士康将会生产什么仍然是一个谜，尽管曾经讨论过电视屏幕。它作为一个摇摆方，被当作美国制造业复兴的典型案例，匆匆通过。但 Michigan 就业研究所 Upjohn Institute 的 Tim Bartik 说这是错误的。补贴作为未来工资的一部分，比一般情况高出10倍。这表明潜在的经济价值毫无意义。富士康现在转而开始讨论创新和研究了。
A better example, says Mr Bartik, is Grand Rapids, Michigan,“the most successful intensive manufacturing city in America”. It once made furniture and car parts, but since 1985 has been transformed by a project called “the Right Place”. Change came from the ground up, starting with13 businesspeople from banks and philanthropy, including the Van Andel and De Vos families, who wanted to make their home more attractive. The early idea was to get existing firms to stay, but later it became to lure newcomers. The burghers first restored the town centre.
They built a 12,000-seat arena that hosted big-name performers like Elton John. Hotels, restaurants, coffee bars and other entertainment flourished. Students flocked in. The Van Andels set up the Van Andel Institute, a bioscience cluster. Michigan State University opened a big medical school to train health-care staff. Michigan Tech University set up a branch.
Bartik 先生说，Michigan 的 Grand Rapids 是美国最成功的制造业密集型城市。那里曾经制造家具和汽车零部件，但自从1985年开始，它已经被一个叫做 “正确的地方”的项目改变了。改变是从底层开始的，最开始是银行业和慈善业的13位商人，包括Van Andel 和 De Vos 家族，他们想让自己的家乡更具有吸引力。最初的想法是想把现有的公司留下来，但是后来变成了去吸引新来者。市民们首先修复了市中心。他们建造了一个能容纳 12000人的舞台供 Elton John 等大牌明星使用。酒店、餐馆、咖啡厅以及其他娱乐设施如雨后春笋。学生们蜂拥而至。Van Andel夫妇建立了 Van Andel 研究所，一个生物科学场地。密歇根州大学开设了一个大的医疗学校去培养医疗保健人员。密歇根理工大学在这里开了分校。
Manufacturers were pressed to modernise. Birgit Klohs, a German transplant who has run the Right Place since 1987, says “We’re still a manufacturing centre, like the Mittelstand. The bulk of our success is in advanced manufacturing, in familyowned, mid-sized firms in their third or fourth generation of ownership, just like in Germany.” She seeks foreign ideas. In the 1980s a Japanese adviser showed car-suppliers Toyota’s lean techniques. She leads forays to Germany to study “Industry 4.0” (high tech in factories) or Israel to see how to work with startups.
制造商被迫进行现代化改造。来自德国的移民 Birgit Klohs 正在经营着一家公司，他说：”就像 Mittelstand 一样，我们仍然是一个制造业中心。我们成功的主要原因就是因为先进的制造业。就像德国一样，在家族企业中，中等公司在他们的第三代或者第四代。“。她在寻找外国思想。在19世纪 80年代，一个日本顾问向汽车供应商展示了 丰田的精益技术。她领队去德国学习”工业4.0“（工业高科技）或者去以色列去看如何与初创公司合作。
As important, foreign investors are urged to come to Grand Rapids. Again, the German connection helps. She says there are 136 foreign companies, including 50 from her former homeland. The city “makes a point of attracting foreign, especially German” firms, she says, “as we saw something in common”. The results are exceptional. The Grand Rapids metro area has more than 1m residents today, up from 740,000 in 2000. New types of manufacturers flourish, such as makers of medical devices and equipment. Ms Klohs’s group lists 79 suppliers of personal protective gear, such as face shields, masks, hand-sanitisers, swabs and more, currently in high demand。
同样重要的是，外国投资者被督促前往 Grand Rapids。与德国的联系再次帮助了我们。她说这里有 136家外国公司，包括50她祖国的。她说，正如我们共同看到的那样，这座城市“非常重视吸引外国，特别是德国”的公司。结果是令人意外的。Grand Rapids 都市区已经从 2000 年的 74 万 增至 100万。新型制造业蓬勃发展，比如医疗设备制造商和设备制造商。Ms Klohs 的团队列出了 79家个人防护领域的供应商，比如面罩、口罩、洗手液、棉签等当前热需的。
The city is a model for deployment of social capital. Researchers have tried to understand why some collaborative efforts succeed but not others. Part of the answer is that, as with the Mittelstand, many firms in the Midwest are owned by families with a passion for their home towns. Mr Katz says Midwesterners benefit from a “deep commitment to place”. He notes how many institutions with huge endowments there are, including MacArthur in Chicago, Heinz in Pittsburgh, the Cleveland Foundation and the Howard G. Buffett (son of Warren) foundation in Decatur
这个城市是社会资本调度的典型。研究人员试图理解，为何一些合作成功了，一些却没有。部分原因是，像Mittelstand 这样，中西部由很多这样对他们的家乡充满热情的家族企业。比尔盖茨说，中西部人受益于 “植根于地方”。他指出，有多少机构获得了捐赠，包括 …..等基金会。
One research paper contrasts the fortunes of Allentown in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, with the dim outcomes in Youngstown, Ohio, in the years since the 1970s. In Allentown the main concern, as in Grand Rapids, was to create conditions so firms would stay and grow. In Youngstown (as with Foxconn in Wisconsin) there was a narrower focus on helping a particular industry, in its case steel. The long slog of creating the right eco-system seems more likely to pay off than the short-term effort to pick a winner in a declining business.
一份研究报告对比了自1970年来， Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania 的前景，以及 Youngstown, Ohio 的暗淡。和 Grand Rapids 一样 Allentown 的关注点在创造条件，以使得公司能够稳定并发展。在 Youngstown ，人们的关注点更窄，更侧重于帮助某个特定行业，比如钢铁行业。目前来看，长期创建正确的循环生态系统的努力似乎看起来比在衰退行业选择赢家的努力更可能获得回报。