Are the Olympic games a bad deal for host cities?
对主办城市而言，奥运会是门“坏生意”吗？
Silence fills the official merchandise shop in Tokyo's Aqua City mall. It had hoped to do brisk business selling everything from T-shirts to traditional daruma dolls to hordes of fans. But the pandemic means that the games will proceed with little fanfare.
东京 Aqua City 台场的奥运会官方商店里一片寂静；商店原本希望能够生意红火，把 T 恤、传统达摩娃娃等一系列纪念品卖给大批奥运粉丝。然而，疫情的存在意味着东京奥运会将悄无声息地进行下去。
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The outlook for the wider gains from the Olympics is similarly gloomy — but covid-19 is only partly to blame. Economists have long argued that, rather than consumption, tourism and prestige, the games leave high debt, wasteful infrastructure and onerous maintenance obligations.
同时，奥运会所带来的更广泛收益，其前景同样不容乐观；不过，新冠病毒只是造成这一局面的部分原因。长期以来，经济学家们都认为，奥运会带来的不是消费的增长、旅游业的发展和声誉的提高，而是高额的债务、基础设施的浪费，以及繁重的维护义务。
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Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg and Daniel Lunn of Oxford University find that every Olympics since 1960 has overspent, by an average of 172% in real terms. Tokyo fits the pattern.
来自牛津大学的 Alexander Budzier、Bent Flyvbjerg 和 Daniel Lunn 发现，自 1960 年以来，每一届奥运会都会超支，实际平均超支 172%。东京奥运会也不例外。
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A Tokyo government study in 2017 projected that the returns would more than make up for the costs. Part of the boost comes from the construction of new infrastructure. Another benefit usually comes from consumption around the games, on everything from tickets to food and drink. But as the competition will unfold without spectators, Tokyo stands to reap little of that.
2017 年，日本政府的一项研究推测，东京奥运会的收益会大大超过成本。一方面，部分增长来自于新基础设施的建设；另一方面，围绕这场赛事的各种消费——从门票到餐饮——通常也会带来收益。但是，由于此次奥运会将在没有观众的情况下进行，因此，东京可能从中赚不了多少。
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Much of the gain is expected to come from the woollier category of "legacy effects", such as increases in tourism and also the use of transport and other infrastructure after the tournament ends. But those projections are probably overstated to begin with, and the pandemic will erode much of them.
此外，东京奥运会的大部分收益预计将来自“遗留效应”这一较难界定的项目，包括旅游业的增长，以及赛事结束后对交通设施和其他基础设施的后续使用等。但是，那些预测可能从一开始就被夸大了；同时，新冠疫情的出现又将“侵蚀”掉其中的大部分收益。
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The number of cities bidding for the games has dwindled in recent years. Tokyo's experience seems set only to put more of them off, especially rich places with less need for infrastructure binges.
近年来，申办奥运会的城市数量逐渐减少。东京的经验似乎只会“劝退”更多城市，尤其是那些不太需要大规模基础设施建设的富裕地区。
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主编：Felicity、Jenny
品控：Felicity
审核：桃子
Photo Credit: Tauseef MUSTAFA / Eugene Hoshiko / POOL / AFP
重点词汇
brisk
/brɪsk/
adj.（生意）兴隆的，红火的；轻快的，精力充沛的
英文释义：quick and full of energy
搭配短语：a brisk pace（步履轻盈的步伐）
例句：They were doing a brisk trade in souvenirs.
hordes of
一大群人
相关词汇：horde（n. 一群人，一伙人）
英文释义：a large crowd of people
同义短语：a horde of（一大群人）
proceed
/proʊˈsiːd/
v. 继续进行，继续做……
拓展音标：/prəˈsiːd/
英文释义：to continue to do something that has already been planned or started
搭配短语：to proceed with sth.（继续进行……）
例句：He decided not to proceed with the treatment.
fanfare
/ˈfæn.fer/
n. 大张旗鼓的宣传，热议；（重要仪式上奏的）响亮短曲，号角齐鸣
例句：Huawei's new operating system Harmony OS was introduced with great fanfare.
outlook
/ˈaʊt.lʊk/
n. 前景，展望
相关词汇：look（v. 看）
词根词缀：out-（表示“向外”）
近义词：prospect（n. 前景，展望）
搭配短语：the career outlook / prospect
onerous
/ˈɑː.nɚ.əs/
adj. 繁重的，艰巨的
拓展音标：/ˈonɚ.əs/
搭配短语：an onerous task
obligation
/ˌɑː.bləˈɡeɪ.ʃən/
n. 义务，责任
搭配短语：to have an obligation to do sth.（有义务做某事）
例句：Employers have an obligation to treat all employees equally.
搭配短语：to meet / fulfill an obligation（履行义务）
overspend
/ˌoʊ.vɚˈspend/
v. 超支
词根词缀：over-（表示“过度，超过”）
派生词：overload（v. 过载）；overdose（v. 过量用药）
例句：The company has overspent its budget by $10,000.
in real terms
实际上
例句：Rail fares have increased by 10% in real terms.
相关短语：in relative terms（相对来说）
相关短语：in general terms（笼统而言）
project
/prəˈdʒekt/
v. 预计，推断
近义词：forecast（v. 预测）
例句：The unemployment is projected to fall.
unfold
/ʌnˈfoʊld/
v.（事件的）发生；（故事的）展开，呈现；展开，摊开
搭配短语：to unfold a map（展开，摊开）
例句：As the story unfolds, the audience learn more about Beth's childhood.（（故事的）展开）
英文释义：to happen, or to develop
例句：How will the pandemic unfold in 2021 and what is likely to change?（（事件的）发生）
spectator
/spekˈteɪ.t̬ɚ/
n.（尤指体育比赛的）观众
stand to do sth.
很可能做……
英文释义：to be likely to do something
例句：He stands to lose his livelihood due to the pandemic.
reap
/riːp/
v. 收获，得到；收割（庄稼）
例句：You reap what you sow.（种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆。）
例句：He reaped large profits from his investment.
woolly
/ˈwʊl.i/
adj. 混乱的，模糊的；羊毛制的
相关词汇：wool（n. 羊毛）
近义词：woollen（adj. 羊毛制的，毛的）
英文释义：vague or confused in expression or character
搭配短语：woolly thinking
搭配短语：a woolly theory
overstate
/ˌoʊ.vɚˈsteɪt/
v. 夸大，夸张
词根词缀：over-（表示“过度，超过”）
相关词汇：state（v. 陈述）
erode
/ɪˈroʊd/
v. 逐渐毁坏，削弱；侵蚀，腐蚀
英文释义：to gradually destroy something
搭配短语：to erode one's confidence（削弱某人的信心）
bid for
努力争取，尝试；投标，竞标
例句：Several companies have indicated their intention to bid for the contract.
dwindle
/ˈdwɪn.dəl/
v. 逐渐减少、缩小、减弱
英文释义：to become gradually less and smaller
例句：My savings have dwindled.
be set to
有可能……
相关短语：stand to do sth.（可能……）
英文释义：to be likely to do sth.
例句：The team looks set to win the game.
binge
/bɪndʒ/
n. 放纵，无节制
搭配短语：a drinking / shopping binge
词性拓展：binge（v. 放纵，大吃大喝，狂欢作乐）
搭配短语：binge on
例句：She would binge on junk food whenever she feels stressed.