Deflated Fed Battles Prices

2002年，贝南克(Ben Bernanke)发表了一个题为“通货紧缩：确保它不会在这里发生”的演讲。它现在还是发生了。美国劳工部(Labor Department)周三宣布，美国3月份的消费者价格指数(CPI)较上年同期下降0.4%，这是半个多世纪以来美国CPI首次低于上年同期。虽然不包括食品和能源价格的“核心”CPI较上年同期上升1.8%，但从目前的情形看，未来几个月即使是那些不开车不吃喝的人也有可能感受到物价下降的影响。在本次金融危机爆发前，整个世界差不多都在致力于填塞美国人不断扩大的消费胃口。但消费者现在却开始节食了，而且很难想像他们短期内会恢复以往挥霍无度的生活方式。这就使那些以向美国人出售产品和服务为业的人都陷入了困境。为了生存，他们必须为争夺美国人剩余的消费需求展开更激烈的竞争。竞争加剧则会导致价格走低。值此信贷危机之际，持续的通货紧缩局面尤其有害。物价下跌会使借款人更难以还清债务，从而导致更多债务违约现象发生，并迫使放贷标准进一步收紧。贝南克知道这一点，他正在抗击通货紧缩。贝南克在2002年那次演讲中提出的反通货紧缩措施之一是，政府可以增加支出或减少收税，而美联储则可通过购买美国国债来为政府的这些举措提供资金。实际上，这就好似政府印出钱来直接发给美国家庭，目前的情形几乎就是如此。虽然现在还难以预料美联储与物价下跌间的斗争谁会占上风，但不难预料，无论谁取胜都不会有好结果。Justin Lahart相关阅读美国3月份CPI五十余年同比首次下跌 2009-04-15美联储黄皮书：部分地区经济下滑势头减弱 2009-04-16美联储考虑定期举行新闻发布会 2009-04-15贝南克领衔出演美联储公关大戏 2009-04-15


In 2002, Ben Bernanke gave a speech titled 'Deflation: Making Sure 'It' Doesn't Happen Here.'Now it's happened.On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that in March the consumer-price index slipped 0.4% below its year-earlier level, the first decline in over 50 years. The 'core' CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 1.8%, but it is possible that even people who don't drive or eat could see price declines in the months to come.Up until the financial crisis hit, much of the world was focused on filling U.S. consumers' widening maw. But now consumers are on a diet, and it is hard to imagine them returning to their spendthrift ways anytime soon. That leaves anyone in the business of selling goods and services to Americans in a bind. To stay afloat, they will all compete harder for the sales that are left. Stiffer competition makes for lower prices.Amid continuing credit woes, a protracted spell of deflation would be particularly unwelcome. Falling prices would make it tougher for borrowers to pay off debt, leading to even more defaults and even tougher lending standards. Mr. Bernanke knows this, and is fighting back.One of the deflation-fighting measures the Federal Reserve chief outlined in his 2002 speech was that the government could ramp up spending or lower taxes, and the Fed could buy the Treasurys issued to finance such moves. In practice, that is like printing money and handing it out to households, and it is pretty much what is happening now.When the fight is between falling prices and the Fed, it is hard to predict which will prevail. But it isn't hard to predict that the outcome will be messy.Justin Lahart