Credit Crunch Looms For Asia

西方的信贷危机制造了亚洲的经济危机。现在的问题是，经济危机是否会引发亚洲自己的信贷危机。亚洲企业债券的前景也迅速变得暗淡起来。收益和经济形势的恶化意味着评级将会下降，融资成本将会上升。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)表示，在亚洲，其下调评级所占的比例已经从1年前的26%上升至74%。这个比例仍然低于西方国家，但差距正在缩小。未来三年内，标准普尔公司给予评级的3,370亿美元亚洲企业债券将陆续到期。债券市场仍在继续发挥功能，近期内需要再融资的债券质量依然较高。在标准普尔给予评级的债券中，未来三年到期的债券里只有190亿美元债券来自于获得投机级评级的公司，而美国的这个数量为7,000亿美元。迄今为止还没有知名亚洲公司违约的情况。不过，破产数量正在增加。据Teikoku Databank称，在日本，今年1月份破产企业留下的债务额比上年同期增长了122%。其他的不利迹象还包括，韩国友利银行(Woori Bank)选择接受更高成本的融资，而不是花费宝贵的现金在到期前偿还4亿美元的后偿债券。上周有人担心韩国银行将会陷入“三月危机”之中，原因是它们将缺乏足够的资金来偿还美元债务。但分析师说，由于政府高达1,000亿美元资金的支持，这不会爆发危机。其他政府也在努力提供帮助。台湾放宽了企业融资的规定，包括公司可在债权人同意的情况下重新设定可转换债券的条款。澳大利亚也明确表示政府将对银行提供支持。不过这些天来，与政府“有干系”并不总是件令人欢迎的事。印度的主权信用评级仅略高于垃圾级，目前正受到下调评级的审查。这一前景已经损害了有国家背景公司的前景，如果成为现实将会产生更加广泛的影响。Andrew Peaple相关阅读信贷市场再次亮起红灯 2009-02-24全球金融体系浮现持稳迹象 2009-02-12 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年02月26日10:52', 'AIG'));美国国际集团英文名称：American International Group Inc.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：AIGdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月26日10:52', 'WF'));Woori Finance Holdings Co.  (ADS)总部地点：韩国(South Korea)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：WFdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年02月26日10:52', '053000.SE'));Woori Finance Holdings Co.总部地点：韩国(South Korea)上市地点：韩国证交所股票代码：053000


A credit crunch in the West created an economic crisis in Asia. Now, the question is whether economic crisis will spark Asia's own credit crunch.The outlook for Asian corporate debt is dimming fast. Collapsing earnings and economic conditions mean ratings are on the way down and financing costs rising.Standard & Poor's says its downgrade ratio -- the proportion of downward ratings moves -- has risen to 74% in Asia from 26% a year ago. It is still below levels in the West, but catching up. This is happening as some $337 billion of Asian corporate debt rated by S&P comes due in the next three years.Debt markets continue to function, and the debt that will need refinancing in the short-term remains of good quality. In S&P's coverage universe, only $19 billion of the amount coming due in the next three years is from speculative grade-rated companies, compared with $700 billion in the U.S. There has been no high-profile Asian corporate default so far.Still, bankruptcies are stacking up. In Japan, the amount of debt left behind by insolvent firms was 122% higher in January than it was a year before, according to Teikoku Databank.Other signs of weakness include South Korea's Woori Bank opting to accept a higher cost of funding rather than expend precious cash to call a $400 million subordinated bond ahead of its maturity.Last week came concerns that Korean banks will face a 'March crisis' in which they would lack sufficient funds to meet U.S. dollar obligations. There won't be a crisis, analysts say, thanks to as much as $100 billion in government backing.Other governments are trying to help. Taiwan has eased rules on corporate fund raising -- including allowing companies to reset convertible-bond terms if creditors agree. Australia has offered its banks explicit government backing.Government links aren't always as welcome these days, though. India's sovereign credit rating, hovering just above junk status, is under review for a downgrade. The prospect is already hurting the outlook for state-linked companies and will have a more widespread effect if it becomes a reality.Andrew Peaple