Barometers Hint At Global Financial Stabilization
即便失业人数不断上升，企业利润大幅下滑，全球市场仍隐隐出现了一丝企稳的迹象。在美国欧洲与中国，多项制造业采购经理人指数均在1月份小幅上扬，预示着制造业活动的收缩势头可能正在放缓。银行间拆款利率也在回落。一些信贷市场正在解冻。分析师说，官方利率跌至谷底，政府承诺采取大规模财政刺激计划以及各大央行重振市场的其他举措都在一定程度上缓解了金融市场的紧张状况，可能给不断下滑的企业信心带来支撑。随着政府救助举措逐渐在市场发挥作用，它们可能为全球经济开始走出危机低谷奠定基础。但眼下的企稳迹象还是处于非常低的水平，金融体系依然脆弱，预示着未来一年最多只会保持震荡走势。而且，向好的迹象还有可能再次变糟，尤其是考虑到就业不断下滑家庭收入日益减少的情况下。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻伦敦经济学家瓦特瑞特(Ken Wattret)说，我们曾经关注的一些数据过去糟糕得令人惊讶。我们现在的感觉是，经济的收缩步伐可能不会按那种速度延续下去。但这只是变得不那么糟糕而已。伦敦银行同业拆息(Libor)是反映金融行业稳健状况的一个关键指标。去年秋天雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings)申请破产之后，Libor曾一度飙升，因为银行之间都不愿互相拆借。本周三，3个月美元Libor略升至1.23%，因为市场对美国财政部的金融稳定计划感到失望；但这一利率自年初以来就一直在回落，较去年10月10日的历史最高水平4.82%更是显著下滑。同样在金融市场，高评级公司债的发行量正大幅上升，预示着市场可能正在恢复正常，重新承担起它们的关键作用──为需要资金的公司提供融资。短期公司信贷市场也出现了好转迹象。短期商业票据的利率已经下滑，各家公司已经逐渐减少了对美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)为商业票据借贷者提供的一项特别融资便利的依赖。周二在国会作证时，美联储主席本·贝南克(Ben Bernanke)指出，近几周来多项信贷指标都出现了改善，这说明美联储的救助方案正按预期发挥作用。据市场研究公司Dealogic说，自今年年初以来，世界各地的公司共发售了2,644亿美元未经政府项目担保的投资级公司债券。这个数字高于去年第四季度，当时公司平均每月销售829亿美元无政府担保的债券。尽管经济数据明显恶化，但股价自去年11月以来基本持平。周三，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上涨50.65点，收于7939.53点。Moody's Economy.com首席经济学家赞迪(Mark Zandi)说，金融体系出现了一些企稳的迹象。实体经济仍在急剧走软。美国非农就业人口已是连续3个月每月减少近60万就业岗位。欧元区16国第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)预计至多将收缩1.5%。在美国，供应管理学会1月份制造业采购经理人指数从12月份的32.9上升至35.6。尽管1月份的数据显示采购经理人依然非常悲观，但当月指数的小幅上升表明，他们的预期有望稳定在较低的水平上。欧元区制造业也出现了类似情况，Markit Economics的采购经理人指数从12月份33.9的历史低点小幅回升至34.4。1月份中国官方的采购经理人指数也连续第二个月上升。Markit驻伦敦首席经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森(Chris Williamson)说，我认为就下跌的速度而言，我们已经触底。我们看到信心已经有所回升。消费者信心调查的情况也大体类似。在美国，世界大型企业联合会信心指数已经稳定在去年10月份创出的最低点附近，尽管仍处于衰退之中，但并未进一步恶化。Joellen Perry / Jon Hilsenrath相关阅读国际能源署下调09年全球石油需求预期 2009-02-12美国12月份贸易逆差创近6年来最低水平 2009-02-11发展中国家经济快速下滑 2009-02-10美中将在金融事务上展开合作 2009-02-10航运指数上涨暗示衰退缓解？ 2009-02-10哪国将率先复苏？ 2009-02-09标普500成份股公司派息料减13% 2009-02-07
Even as job losses mount and profits plunge, some glimmers of stabilization are emerging in global markets.In the U.S., Europe and China, separate surveys of manufacturers' purchasing managers all inched upward in January, suggesting that the contraction in manufacturing activity could be slowing. The interest rates at which banks lend to one another are easing. And some credit markets are thawing.Analysts say rock-bottom official interest rates, promises of massive fiscal-stimulus packages and central banks' other efforts to revive markets have helped ease some tensions in financial markets and may help put a floor under falling business confidence. As the government rescue efforts work their way through the markets, they could lay the groundwork for the global economy to begin escaping the worst of the storm.But the current hints of stabilization come at very low levels, and with the financial system still fragile, suggesting the year ahead will be rocky at best. And the hopeful signs could still turn ugly, especially with employment falling and draining household incomes.'Some of the numbers we had been seeing were just jaw-droppingly awful,' said Ken Wattret, economist with BNP Paribas in London. 'What we're getting now is a sense that the pace of contraction won't continue at that rate. But it's really a question of being less bad.'A key barometer for financial-sector health -- the London interbank offered rate -- soared in the fall after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, because banks quit lending to one another. On Wednesday, the three-month dollar Libor inched up to 1.23% on disappointment about the Treasury Department's financial-stability plan, but has been easing since the start of the year and is down sharply since its peak of 4.82% on Oct. 10.Also in financial markets, issuance of high-rated corporate bonds is soaring, signaling that markets could be getting back on track to serving their core purpose -- providing funds to firms that need them.Short-term corporate credit markets also have shown signs of improvement. Interest rates on short-term commercial-paper financing agreements have come down, and firms have become less reliant on a special Federal Reserve facility serving commercial-paper borrowers.In testimony to Congress Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke noted that a variety of credit indicators have improved in recent weeks, a sign that some of the Fed's rescue programs are working as planned.Since the start of the year, companies world-wide have sold $264.4 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds that aren't guaranteed through a government program, according to research firm Dealogic. That is up from the fourth quarter of last year, when companies sold on average $82.9 billion of non-government-backed debt a month.Stock prices also have been relatively flat since November, even as economic news has deteriorated sharply. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50.65 points to 7939.53.'There are some signs of stability in the financial system,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.The real economy is still weakening sharply. Payroll employment in the U.S. has fallen by nearly 600,000 jobs a month for three straight months. Fourth-quarter gross-domestic-product figures for the 16-nation euro zone, due Friday, are expected to show a contraction of as much as 1.5%.In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management's January survey of manufacturing purchasing managers ticked up to 35.6 in January from 32.9 in December. The January level still implies deep pessimism among purchasing managers, but the small increase for the month suggests that their outlook could be stabilizing at low levels.A similar measure for the euro-zone manufacturing sector, the Purchasing Managers Index from Markit Economics, also nudged up in January, to 34.4 from December's record low of 33.9. China's official purchasing managers' index also staged its second monthly rise in January.'I think we've bottomed out in terms of the rate of decline,' said Chris Williamson, chief economist with Markit in London. 'We're seeing some confidence creeping back in.'Consumer confidence surveys are behaving similarly. In the U.S., the Conference Board's confidence index has stabilized near the very low levels reached in October -- still recessionary but not getting worse.Joellen Perry / Jon Hilsenrath
Even as job losses mount and profits plunge, some glimmers of stabilization are emerging in global markets.In the U.S., Europe and China, separate surveys of manufacturers' purchasing managers all inched upward in January, suggesting that the contraction in manufacturing activity could be slowing. The interest rates at which banks lend to one another are easing. And some credit markets are thawing.Analysts say rock-bottom official interest rates, promises of massive fiscal-stimulus packages and central banks' other efforts to revive markets have helped ease some tensions in financial markets and may help put a floor under falling business confidence. As the government rescue efforts work their way through the markets, they could lay the groundwork for the global economy to begin escaping the worst of the storm.But the current hints of stabilization come at very low levels, and with the financial system still fragile, suggesting the year ahead will be rocky at best. And the hopeful signs could still turn ugly, especially with employment falling and draining household incomes.'Some of the numbers we had been seeing were just jaw-droppingly awful,' said Ken Wattret, economist with BNP Paribas in London. 'What we're getting now is a sense that the pace of contraction won't continue at that rate. But it's really a question of being less bad.'A key barometer for financial-sector health -- the London interbank offered rate -- soared in the fall after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, because banks quit lending to one another. On Wednesday, the three-month dollar Libor inched up to 1.23% on disappointment about the Treasury Department's financial-stability plan, but has been easing since the start of the year and is down sharply since its peak of 4.82% on Oct. 10.Also in financial markets, issuance of high-rated corporate bonds is soaring, signaling that markets could be getting back on track to serving their core purpose -- providing funds to firms that need them.Short-term corporate credit markets also have shown signs of improvement. Interest rates on short-term commercial-paper financing agreements have come down, and firms have become less reliant on a special Federal Reserve facility serving commercial-paper borrowers.In testimony to Congress Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke noted that a variety of credit indicators have improved in recent weeks, a sign that some of the Fed's rescue programs are working as planned.Since the start of the year, companies world-wide have sold $264.4 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds that aren't guaranteed through a government program, according to research firm Dealogic. That is up from the fourth quarter of last year, when companies sold on average $82.9 billion of non-government-backed debt a month.Stock prices also have been relatively flat since November, even as economic news has deteriorated sharply. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50.65 points to 7939.53.'There are some signs of stability in the financial system,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.The real economy is still weakening sharply. Payroll employment in the U.S. has fallen by nearly 600,000 jobs a month for three straight months. Fourth-quarter gross-domestic-product figures for the 16-nation euro zone, due Friday, are expected to show a contraction of as much as 1.5%.In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management's January survey of manufacturing purchasing managers ticked up to 35.6 in January from 32.9 in December. The January level still implies deep pessimism among purchasing managers, but the small increase for the month suggests that their outlook could be stabilizing at low levels.A similar measure for the euro-zone manufacturing sector, the Purchasing Managers Index from Markit Economics, also nudged up in January, to 34.4 from December's record low of 33.9. China's official purchasing managers' index also staged its second monthly rise in January.'I think we've bottomed out in terms of the rate of decline,' said Chris Williamson, chief economist with Markit in London. 'We're seeing some confidence creeping back in.'Consumer confidence surveys are behaving similarly. In the U.S., the Conference Board's confidence index has stabilized near the very low levels reached in October -- still recessionary but not getting worse.Joellen Perry / Jon Hilsenrath