Travel, Tourism Vulnerable To Swine Flu Fears

猪流感造成的恐慌可能让脆弱的全球经济陷入更严重的动荡，随着紧张万分的消费者和企业推迟支出计划，旅行和旅游也会受到打击。Associated Press周一，一位从墨西哥城回到加州的游客戴着口罩。亚洲股市周一走低，投资者又回忆起了2003年上半年从中国扩散至几十个国家的非典型肺炎最初带来的伤害。已经受到全球衰退严重打击的航空公司的股价出现暴跌，投资者预想到了取消出行计划将给航空公司造成的损失。与此同时，随着中国俄罗斯等国暂停从墨西哥和美国的部分州进口猪肉，保护主义的苗头也初步显现。猪流感疫情的爆发正值世界努力走出金融危机之际。近几周来美国经济刚刚开始显现出下跌步伐趋缓的迹象。但全球爆发猪流感疫情很可能会阻碍经济复苏，尤其是那些依赖于贸易和旅游的新兴经济体就更是如此。虽然这场危机短期内可能制约墨西哥经济的发展，但猪流感对全球经济的影响将在很大程度上取决于病毒扩散的范围，持续的时间，以及影响到的人口数量。各国政府近年来已经先后投入了数十亿美元预防传染病，最近全球应对疾病威胁的经验给人们带来了一些希望，即目前的危机对整体经济的损害有限。在人们对禽流感感到担忧的时候，美国国会预算办公室2006年时曾估计，类似于1918年西班牙流感规模的流感疫情可能让美国的国内生产总值下降约4.25%。国会预算办公室还说，程度较轻的疫情将使GDP下降约1%。当年的西班牙流感共导致5,000多万人丧生。但预计疫情将对一些具体行业产生短期影响。例如，3M公司说，正在尽力满足对N95口罩需求的飙升。该公司发言人说，这种口罩已经无法满足订单，这意味着公司手头没有足够的产品向所有订购口罩的客户发货。与此同时，航空公司称取消订票的数量很少，世界卫生组织(WHO)在声明中说，它并未发布任何限制旅行的警告。不过，欧盟卫生专员瓦西里欧(Androulla Vassiliou)敦促欧洲人推迟不重要的前往墨西哥和美国部分地区的旅行；俄罗斯台湾和香港表示，它们将对显示出猪流感症状的旅客进行隔离。恐慌的投资者周一大肆抛售航空类股，他们担心航空公司的财务状况会受到进一步的打击。美国主要航空公司放宽了对乘客更改进出墨西哥的现有预订的限制。Sudeep Reddy / Sarah Nassauer相关阅读美国已有40个 诊人患猪流感病例 2009-04-28猪流感恐慌加剧全球经济困境 2009-04-28世卫组织提高猪流感大流行警告级别 2009-04-28亚洲吸取以往教训 积极迎战猪流感 2009-04-28 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月28日12:01', 'MMM'));3M公司英文名称：3M Co.总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：MMM


Fears over swine flu threatened to knock a vulnerable global economy into deeper turmoil, hammering travel and tourism as nervous consumers and businesses delayed spending plans.Asian stock markets sank Monday as investors recalled the initial damage from an outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, a virus that spread from China to dozens of countries in early 2003. Airlines, already hit hard by the global recession, saw their shares tumble as investors braced for losses from canceled travel plans. Meanwhile, early signs of protectionist measures emerged as China, Russia and other nations halted pork imports from Mexico and some U.S. states.The virus threat comes as the world tries to dig itself out of a crippling financial crisis. In the U.S. in recent weeks, signs had started to emerge that the economy's pace of decline was slowing. But a global flu pandemic would likely impede recovery from the recession, especially for emerging economies dependent on trade and tourism.While the crisis is likely to restrain Mexico's economy in the short term, the broader global economic impact from swine flu will depend largely on how far the virus spreads, how long it lasts and how many people are affected. Governments have invested billions of dollars in recent years preparing for infectious diseases, and recent global experiences with disease threats offer some hope that the current crisis will pass with limited damage to the overall economy.Amid worries about avian flu, the Congressional Budget Office in 2006 estimated that a flu pandemic on the scale of the 1918 Spanish flu, which caused more than 50 million deaths, could push U.S. gross domestic product down by about 4.25%. A milder pandemic would reduce GDP by about 1%, the CBO said.But short-term effects are expected to hit specific industries. For example, 3M Co. said it is racing to meet surging demand for it N95 respiratory masks. A spokeswoman said the masks are on back order, meaning the Minnesota company doesn't have enough on hand to ship to all the customers who want them.Airlines, meanwhile have reported only a small number of cancellations, and the World Health Organization released a statement saying it had not issued any warnings to limit travel.Still, European Union Health Commissioner Androulla Vassiliou urged Europeans to postpone nonessential travel to Mexico and parts of the U.S., and Russia, Taiwan and Hong Kong said they would quarantine visitors showing symptoms of the virus.Spooked investors dumped airline shares Monday, fearing a further hit to airline finances. Major U.S. airlines relaxed restrictions for passengers seeking to change existing bookings to or from Mexico.Sudeep Reddy / Sarah Nassauer