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前沿
最近看到的吴晓波的文章。
2030年前后，中国的老龄化人口将超过30%。而步入中老的“60 后”“70 后”一代将成为全球规模最大的高净值群体，养老产业替代房地产成为第一大消费产业。
吴晓波：10年后，养老就是中国最大的产业
正文
翻译自《The Economist 》August 3rd-9th 2019
翻译人：Anthony
soon after dinnertime, Xiangyang Park in central Shanghai transforms into a ballroom. Loudspeakers pump out old pop songs as elderly folk sway under the plane trees. A picture of geriatric nostalgia—until you meet Ms Shi and Mr Zhou, a couple in their 70s whose enthusiasm for the waltz is matched only by that for their smartphones. Mr Zhou reads online novels. Ms Shi watches far-flung Chinese parks come alive with their own group dancing on Huoshan, a short-video app favoured by teens. Both love WeChat, a messaging app. “I can go without food, but not without my smartphone,” Ms Shi confesses.
刚过晚饭时间 ，上海的襄阳公园变成了一个跳舞场。扬声器中放着前些年的流行音乐，老人们在梧桐树下摇曳生姿。直到你遇到石女士和周先生
，你才发现这是属于老人们的怀旧场景，他们是一对70多岁的老夫妇，对于广场舞的热情只有智能手机能与之媲美。在一个被年轻人追捧的叫做“火山小视频”的软件上，石女士看到中国各地公园的广场舞和他们的一起活跃起来。他们也都喜欢使用一个即时通讯工具，微信。石小姐承认：“我能不吃不喝，但是我不能离开智能手机”。
She and her husband remain unusual. Less than one in three Chinese over 50 reported owning a smartphone in 2016, the latest year for which the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank, has data, half the share in America. A survey by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Tencent, which owns WeChat, found that only 17% frequently paid for purchases with mobile phones; close to half had never done so.
她和她的丈夫与众不同，根据智库皮尤研究中心（ Pew Research Centre, a think-tank）的最近一年的数据显示，在2016年超过50岁的人群中，低于三分之一的拥有智能手机，占美国智能手机市场份额的一半。根据中国社科院和拥有微信的腾讯调查显示，17%的人群经常通过手机进行支付，超过一半的人从未用过手机支付。
Tech companies want to lure more Ms Shis and Mr Zhous online—and take a bigger slice of the 7trn yuan ($1trn) that Chinese seniors are expected to spend on consumer goods in 2020. To tech firms, the disconnectedness of China’s 250m-odd old, or 18% of the population, is an opportunity. Unlike the young, whose fragmented attention is fought over by thousands of apps, retirees are up for grabs. And once on the internet, they splurge. In 2017 jd.com, a big e-commerce firm, found that they spent 2.3 times as much as the average user. Their typical deposit in Yu’E Bao, an online cash-management service controlled by Alibaba, a giant internet firm, is 7,000 yuan compared with 4,000 yuan across all ages.
科技公司想吸引更多像石小姐和周先生这样的人群到线上。到2020年，中国的老年人群期望在线上商品支付中花费7万亿人民币（1万亿美元）。对经济公司来说，中国2.5亿老龄人口的断层（占18%的人口）是一个机遇。不像年轻人的碎片化的注意力被成千上万的应用分散，这些退休人员的精力还可以被争夺。一旦使用了互联网，他们就会大肆挥霍时间。在一个中国的大型的电商网站京东2017年数据是，他们比平均用户花费2.3倍更多的时间。他们在余额宝（一个线上资金管理服务，由中国互联网巨头阿里巴巴提供）的存款是7000元，而全部年龄阶段的人存款是4000元。
Early adopters may be better-off than a typical senior, rattled when shops refuse cash. But startups see rich pickings. “I Have A Partner”, a grey-dating app, debuted last year with bold fonts and voice messaging for slow typists. Tangdou Guangchang Wu (“Jelly Bean Square Dance”), which started out posting dance videos (with filters to iron out wrinkles), aspires to be a one-stop shop for the old. It reports over 200m downloads since its launch in 2015.
早期的（支付宝）使用者比通常的老年人更富有，当商店拒绝接受现金的时候，老年人们会感觉到恼火，如今创业者们看到了老年领域富裕的场景
“我有一个伴侣”，一款去年发布的为打字慢的老年人提供支持粗体字和语音消息支持的灰色约会app。糖豆广场舞，最初是发布舞蹈视频（用滤镜抹除皱纹）立志成为老年人的一站式商店，在2015年的推出以来，由超过2亿次的下载。
The big generalists hope to lock the oldies in early. The over-60s use four-fifths of their mobile data on WeChat, against 7% for those aged 18-35. In 2017 Tencent made a video of old-timers rapping about their confusion over tech to encourage children to set their parents up with WeChat Helper, an app assistant. People over 55 are now WeChat’s fastest-growing cohort. Last year Taobao, Alibaba’s online emporium, introduced a “pay-for-me” option for elderly customers to use with family members. The site broadcasts daily over 1,000 live-streaming shows aimed at them. Ele.me, a food-delivery service bought by Alibaba last year, is trialling meal and medicine deliveries for the elderly, and one-off help with things like changing light bulbs. With the over-60s’ share of the population expected to double to one-third by 2050, there is wisdom in this strategy.
大公司希望尽快锁定老年人群。超过60岁的人群中，有80%的时间是花在微信上。对于18到35岁的人群，这个数据是7%。在2017年腾讯发布了一个视频，显示老年人对于科技的迷惑，鼓励年轻人帮助父母安装微信助手（一款app助手）。超过55岁的人群是微信现在增长很快的主流人群。去年，在阿里巴巴的大型在线零售应用，淘宝上，为老年顾客引入了一个“为我支付（亲情付）”的选项，让他们和家人一同购物。网站每天会播放超过1000条直播节目针对老年人群（淘宝直播）。饿了吗作为阿里巴巴去年收购的外卖服务，正在尝试为老年人提供送餐和送药服务，以及更换灯泡等一次性服务。到2020年，超过60岁的老龄人口还将翻番，将会占到人口的1/3，在老年网络市场上创建一番事业可以说是相当明智的。