科技英文_2_Kurzweil_Singularity的目录笔记

总目录

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图书信息：
The Singularity is Near / 《奇点临近》
作者：Ray Kurzweil
初版时间：Originally published in 2005
Amazon

这本书前几天刚看完。虽说此书年月已久，Kurzweil的一些预言已经被证实不大准确，但是从他预言的潮流、世界发展的总体架构看，此书放到今天仍然值得一读。

本书这类似总结、似预言的书籍，我认为大致可以归类成科技哲学类，尤其是在最后一章中，对一些经典质疑的驳斥，哲学意味尤甚。而既然成书的角度是提纲挈领性质，对于书籍最好的把握方式，就是精读一遍目录。

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Chapter 1 The Six Epochs

• The Intuitive Linear View Versus the Historical Exponential View

• The Six Epochs
  • Epoch 1: Physics and Chemistry.
  • Epoch 2: Biology and DNA.
  • Epoch 3: Brains.
  • Epoch 4: Technology.
  • Epoch 5: The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence.
  • Epoch 6: The Universe Wakes Up.

笔记：

• 指数增长/exponential growth：如果用指数增长的角度看，Kurzweil认为很多目前不可能的事情在未来都有可能发生。他成书的时候还没有AlphaGo给大众科普AI，现在大家都明了了AI以及其他科技的潜力。
• Kurzweil用exponential growth的角度看，奇点会出现在2045年前后。
• Epoch 5 也就是 Epoch 3 中的brains性能和 Epoch 4 中的 technology性能达到平衡后的产物。一旦两者平衡了，又会产生出何种混合的新事物？按照Kurzweil的推算，我们有生之年可以得见。

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Chapter 2 A Theory of Technology Evolution

• The Law of Accelerating Returns

• The Nature of Order.
• The Life Cycle of a Paradigm.
• Fractal Designs.
• Farsighted Evolution.
• The S-Curve of a Technology as Expressed in Its Life Cycle
  • The Life Cycle of a Technology.
  • From Goat Skins to Downloads.
• Moore's Law and Beyond
  • Moore's Law: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
  • The Fifth Paradigm.
  • Fractal Dimensions and the Brain.
• DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization
  • Information, Order, and Evolution: The Insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's Cellular Automata.
  • Can We Evolve Artificial Intelligence from Simple Rules?
• The Singularity as Economic Imperative
  • Get Eighty Trillion Dollars—Limited Time Only.
  • Deflation ... a Bad Thing?

笔记：

• Accelerating returns即是指慢—快—慢的这种循环往复的S curve
• Fractal theory / 分形理论：「复杂」只不过是「简单」的多重叠加。
• 科技、技术进步，市场更加公平公开透明，这些条件引发的deflation/通缩并不一定是坏事。

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Chapter 3 Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain

• The Sixth Paradigm of Computing Technology: Three-Dimensional Molecular Computing and Emerging Computational Technologies

• The Bridge to 3-D Molecular Computing.
• Nanotubes Are Still the Best Bet.
• Computing with Molecules.
• Self-Assembly.
• Emulating Biology.
• Computing with DNA.
• Computing with Spin.
• Computing with Light.
• Quantum Computing.

• The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain

• Accelerating the Availability of Human-Level Personal Computing.
• Human Memory Capacity.

• The Limits of Computation

• Reversible Computing.
• How Smart Is a Rock?
• The Limits of Nanocomputing.
• Setting a Date for the Singularity.
• Memory and Computational Efficiency: A Rock Versus a Human Brain.
• Going Beyond the Ultimate: Pico- and Femtotechnology and Bending the Speed of Light.
• Going Back in Time.

笔记：

• 作者简略介绍了计算机技术的sixth paradigm（我们现在是fifth paradigm），6th涉及到诸多前沿科技。一旦这种底层的计算机技术借助前沿科技产生质的突破，计算机的性能亦会大幅提高。
• 人脑其实也是一种机器，有其计算能力的极限、存储容量的极限。计算机计算性能达到人脑完全可能。
• 关于计算机的发展局限，作者是很乐观的。总结下来基本就是局限是暂时的，方法是可见的，打破局限只是时间上的问题。

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TBC...