特朗普崛起？经济学说了算
特朗普崛起？经济学说了算
本文导读：从美国经济的基本面思考为什么激进的Trump如此受选民欢迎。其根本是美国中产家庭收入早在1999年就见顶。过去20年美国的全球化虽然推动了企业盈利，但大量流入到海外的就业导致中产阶级并没有受益这个趋势。这些家庭需要依靠股票和房地产泡沫带来的资产价格提升来弥补收入的下滑。但这一次7年牛市可能结束的背景下，Trump的贸易保护主义让美国人直面过去的问题。以下是全文：
Donald Trump is inching closer to securing the Republican presidential nomination as voters cast their ballots on Super Tuesday -- an outcome that has the donor/Establishment/media nexus apoplectic and social justice warrior types despondent.
据在超级星期二上的选民投票结果显示，唐纳德·特朗普离摘得共和党总统提名的荣耀又靠近了一步——这次投票的结果无疑让捐款人、当权派和媒体愤怒不已，也使得维护社会公正的斗士们扼腕叹息。
Much has been said about Trump's look, language, demeanor, faith, fidelity to the conservative cause, stance on gun rights, women's rights, and so much more. He has been called every name in the book -- sexist, racist, bigot, fraud and fascist -- and compared with Hitler and Mussolini.
特朗普的政治观点、语言、举止、信念、对保守观念的执着，以及他看待持枪权、女性权利和其他事物的立场，都一直饱受诟病。在各类文章中他有着无数个标签——性别歧视者、种族主义人、偏执狂、欺诈犯，甚至是可与希特勒和墨索里尼齐肩的法西斯。
And yet his staying power cannot be dismissed. To my mind, it's not about banning Muslims or building walls. Trump’s rise is about his unique grasp of the most fundamental economic issue that's been hurting regular American workers for decades: the influx of foreign workers and the outflow of corporate capital expenditures that have reduced wage-raising bargaining power.
然而尽管如此，我们无法忽视这场持久的特朗普热潮。笔者认为，这与禁止穆斯林和砌筑“边境长城”并无关联。特朗普的崛起在于他眼光独到，切中要害地把握了一个基本的经济问题——一个使得普通美国本土员工们几十年来都饱受其害的问题：外来务工人员的大量涌入和公司资本开支的流出，让美国员工对涨工资的议价能力大大降低。
Trump is a guy who understands leverage in deal making. And he understands that basic supply-demand dynamics have undermined the ability of middle-class Americans to extract pay raises and keep pace with the persistent increase in the cost of living. And that's why his appeal has confounded the political pundits.
特朗普深谙交易中的杠杆作用。他也明白如今基本的供求动态已经破坏了美国中产阶级获得更多薪水以应对不停上涨生活成本的能力。所以此时特朗普的呼吁才能够撼动美国的政治权威们。
If his appeal was based on his language and bluster, America would have elevated someone like Howard Stern or Ann Coulter long ago. If his appeal was based on foreign policy concerns, why isn't a military general leading the charge? It's the economy, stupid! And the fact is that real, median household income peaked at nearly $58,000 back in 1999 and has been sliding ever since, standing now at just $53,657.
如果特朗普的呼吁仅仅基于他煽动性的言语和充满情绪的咆哮，那美国人宁愿选举出一个类似于霍华德·斯特恩或者安·库尔特的人物（编者注：前者是黄色脱口秀主持人，后者是饱受争议的电视明星）。而如果他只关注外交政策问题，那现在势头大好的也不会是他，而该是个英勇的将军。让特朗普扶摇而上的是经济啊，愚蠢的人类！事实上早在1999年后美国家庭收入的中值就冲上了58000美元的巅峰，但此后却反而一路下滑，如今只有53657美元。
This can all be summarized in two charts: The relationship between corporate profitability and labor's share of income shown above.
Cheap laborers (both undocumented unskilled and skilled H1-B guest workers) and the ability to offshore production and reimport goods into the United States have boosted earnings to record highs. Yet in a mirror-image decline, the share of income going to Middle Americans has collapsed.
究其原因可以总结为：企业盈利能力和劳动收入份额之间的关系。
廉价劳动力（包括无证不熟练工和持H1-B签证的外来熟练工）以及美国强大的境外生产能力和再进口能力，让国家收益再创新高。然而现实是流向美国中产阶级的收入份额却是一场灾难。
Politically, the backlash against this dynamic has been burning slowly for two reasons -- both of which can be traced to the ultra-easy monetary policy of the Federal Reserve over the past 20 some years.
First, easy money has fueled asset price appreciation, allowing Americans to tap home equity and stock market wealth to supplement stagnant wages and fuel their ability to spend. We saw this in the dot-com boom. We saw it in the housing bubble. And we've seen it again in the current bull market.
这种经济形势在政治上的强烈反弹一直以来都发力得很缓慢，原因有二——这两个原因都可归结于二十年来美联储过于宽松的货币政策。
第一，宽松的货币政策加剧了资产价格的上涨，促使美国人利用房屋净值贷款和股市资产来弥补他们停滞不涨的工资，刺激消费。这个原理曾在网络热潮和地产泡沫时代有所体现，如今又再次出现在这一波牛市里。
Unfortunately, the gain in household net worth has been largely relegated to the wealthy who overwhelmingly own the most financial assets -- fueling worries about rising inequality.
Second, many have turned to credit to pad stagnant incomes. Since 1999, household credit has grown from $6.6 trillion to more than $14 trillion.
然而，绝大部分家庭净资产的收益都被已经拥有大部分金融资产的富人收入囊中，加剧了日益严重的分配不均的隐患。
第二，许多人会求助信贷途径以维持收支。自1999年起家庭信贷已从6.6万亿美元增长到了超过14万亿美元。
But now, the political anger is white-hot. Trump thunders in his rallies -- which increasingly resemble rock concerts in mood and tone-- about Ford building factories in Mexico or IT workers from Disney being displaced by foreigners they are forced to train.
但现在政治领域的愤怒居然已经到了白热化的程度。特朗普在宣讲集会中声震如雷——语气语调简直是一场摇滚演唱会。他激动地反对了福特在墨西哥建厂，斥责了迪士尼迫使被解雇的美国籍IT员工在离职前还必须为持H1-B签证的外国继任者们提供培训。
Americans used to be content with this arrangement, buying suddenly cheaper imported goods with wealth and credit. But with homes filled with electronic toys, furniture and clothes, we now want our economic security back. Even mainstream economists are starting to concede that open trade has depressed American wages. The worm is turning.
美国人曾经对状况还算满足，通过家庭资产和信贷购买突然廉价的进口商品。但随着家里电子产品、家具和服装的增多，美国人如今希望恢复过去的经济安全。甚至连主流经济学家都开始认同，开放贸易挫伤了美国的工资水平。燎原的星火已经开始骚动。
The surprising enthusiasm for Democratic presidential challenger Bernie Sanders can also be explained by these dynamics -- especially his appeal to younger voters burdened by debts (mainly, student loans) and without the capital assets (homes, retirement accounts) needed to benefit from the Fed's asset inflation focus. He rails against Wall Street (the creditors). He rails against the rich (benefiting the most from the Fed). And he rails against corporate profits.
民主党竞选人伯尼桑德斯的大热也能用这些动态经济学原理解释——他特别受身负贷款压力（主要是学生贷款）以及没有资产（家庭资产或退休福利账户）的年轻选民的支持，这些年轻人需要从美联储关注资产通胀的政策中受益。他痛斥华尔街（债权人），责骂富人（从美联储受益最多的人），也抱怨公司利润。
But where Sanders and Trump differs -- and why Trump has had more success -- is that their policy prescriptions are different.
Sanders wants to treat the symptoms with palliatives like increased taxes and regulation, using the power of the U.S. government to redistribute wealth from the rich and the corporate sector to poor and middle-income Americans at the risk of further damaging America's potential growth rate by reducing entrepreneurship and economic dynamism.
但桑德斯和特朗普并不相同——政治处方的不同使得特朗普获得了更大的成功。
桑德斯的药方治标不治本，他希望增加税收与监管，以美国政府的权力对财富进行重新分配，由富豪和公司经济部门流向穷人及中产阶级。然而这套政策将降低创业和经济活力，可能产生破坏美国潜在经济增长率的副作用。
Trump is talking about attacking the root cause of the problem: Elevating free trade and corporate globalism over American nationalism and "fair" trade.
For all the looking-down-the-nose belittling of Trump supporters as low-information voters, they implicitly understand this profound truth and realize that -- with Establishment candidates in both political parties beholden to the status quo -- the ostentatious Manhattanite with ridiculous hair and no brain-to-mouth filter is best positioned to turn things around.
反观特朗普，直击病根：提倡将自由贸易和企业全球化凌驾于美国民族主义和“公平”贸易之上。
那些自持甚高并且认为川普支持者都一无所知的人们，其实潜意识里承认并且意识到了一个铁一般的事实——在两党候选人都举步维艰的现状下，这个梳着滑稽发型并且说话不经大脑的浮夸的曼哈顿男人，特朗普，已经严阵以待，誓在扭转乾坤。
来源：微信公众号 东北偏北