原油基准价
FORTY years ago America, still reeling from the 1973 oil crisis, banned most exports of crude oil. That prohibition was lifted by Congress in mid-December. The first shipment under the new rules set sail on December 31st from the Texan port of Corpus Christi. The renewed flow of crude is already changing how oil is priced.
四十年前，美国还没有从1973年的石油危机中缓过神来，当时大部分石油出口都是明令禁止的。这条禁令最终在去年12月中旬由美国国会宣布彻底废除。禁令废除后的第一批出口原油于去年12月31日从德克萨斯海岸的科珀斯克里斯蒂起航。如今这个新动向也开始改变国际原油的定价标准。
Not all barrels of oil are alike. Crudes can be viscous like tar or so “light” they float on water. Their sulphur content ranges from the negligible (“sweet”) to the highly acidic (“sour”). Though hundreds of grades are bought and sold, traders use a handful of benchmarks to make sense of the market. Brent, from the North Sea, is the current international standard. Americans prefer to use a similar grade known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
不同批次的原油，质地也不尽相同。有些可以粘稠如柏油，有些则可以轻浮于水面。各类原油的硫含量从低（甜油）到高（酸油）不一而足。尽管市场上各种级别的原油多达上百种，交易者们却只能通过少数几个基准价来定位市场。北海的布伦特原油价是目前国际市场上的参照标准。而美国更倾向于使用另一个相似的价格标准，即众所周知的西德克萨斯中质原油价（WTI）。
WTI was once the main global benchmark. It has a number of advantages over Brent. For one thing, it arrives at the delivery point—Cushing, Oklahoma—by pipeline, and so can be sold in batches of variable size. Brent, in contrast, can only be sold by the tankerload. As Brent sees fewer, bigger transactions, generating continuous prices is tricky. The ever-shifting price of WTI can be observed directly, making it more transparent. And Brent is umbilically connected to a declining oil province. It comes from only a handful of oilfields, whereas a WTI contract can be satisfied by any suitable oil delivered to Cushing.
WTI一度曾是国际原油主要基准价。因为它有很多优于布伦特的地方。其中一个优势就是它是通过管道输送的方式直通原油运输基地——奥克拉荷马州的库欣（Cushing, Oklahoma），所以它的销售方式可以很灵活。相比，布伦特只能以油罐方式批量出售。由于布伦特只关注批次少但成交量大的原油交易，因此它给出的价格虽然稳定但相对片面。而总是处于波动状态的WTI价格则更直观、透明。而且，布伦特与产量日益贫瘠的油区联系紧密。它提供的原油来仅自于少数几个油田，但是WTI合约则对任何输送到库欣的合格原油来者不拒。
WTI had one vital flaw, though. The export ban meant that it could detach from world oil prices if America produced more crude than expected, since the surplus could not be exported. For most of the late 20th century that risk was hypothetical, as America’s output steadily declined. But in recent years the shale-oil boom revived American production. A glut of crude emerged, first at Cushing and then by the cluster of refineries on the Gulf of Mexico. That pushed American crude prices below Brent. The spread peaked in 2011 at $28 a barrel. As the price of WTI began to say less and less about the state of the world market, traders spurned it in favour of Brent. Trading in contracts linked to Brent overtook those linked to WTI in early 2012.
但是WTI有一个致命弱点。美国原油出口禁令的存在意味着WTI价格有可能与世界原油价格脱钩。当美国原油产出超过预期，而过剩的原油又不能对外出口，其结果可想而知。只不过在上世纪，这种情况只是一种假设，因为当时美国原油产出持续走低。直到近几年，页岩油产量猛增，导致美国原油产量回升。原油供应出现供过于求的局面，这个危机从库欣爆出后又蔓延到墨西哥湾炼油厂，最终迫使美国原油价格降到布伦特原油基准价以下。这次危机的在2011年达到顶峰，当时油价仅为28美元一桶。由于WTI价格越来越不能反映国际市场走势，于是被交易者们一脚踢开，转而支持布伦特基准价。至2012年前期，参考布伦特基准价的交易数量超过了WTI。
The resumption of American exports has changed all that. The two benchmarks now trade at more or less the same price. WTI has duly regained its position as the most traded oil benchmark. This back-and-forth, however, may prove a distraction compared with another shift in the oil market: its centre of gravity is moving inexorably eastwards. OPEC, a cartel of oil exporters, expects demand in Asia to grow by 16m barrels a day by 2040. If that happens, Asia would end up consuming more than 46m barrels a day—four times as much as Europe. As Asia grows, it will become the dominant force in the world market.
重新放开美国原油出口让一切又再次变了个样。两个基准价格如今大致持平。WTI及时地夺回了原油交易首席基准价的地位。但是WTI的强势回归却不能阻止国际原油市场的重心逐渐东移。石油输出组织欧佩克（OPEC）预计，到2040年亚洲原油需求量将增加1600万桶一天。如果这一天真的到来，亚洲的原油消耗量将超过4600万桶一天，达到欧洲的4倍。随着亚洲的不断发展，它终将成为世界原油市场的主宰。
A good benchmark has to reflect supply and demand for oil wherever it is used. WTI may continue to be influenced by bottlenecks in the American market. Brent reflects the market for oil in north-west Europe. That was once a positive, but as Europe’s share of global demand for oil declines, proximity to the continent is no longer the advantage it was.
一个好的基准价格必须能够反映出世界各地的原油供求情况。WTI仍然不能脱离美国原油市场的掣肘。布伦特又只反映欧洲西北地区的市场状况。曾几何时，布伦特是一个不错的基准价，但随着欧洲原油需求在国际市场上的占有率减少，仅用一片大陆地区的市场走势来指导整个世界的价格，显然已经不再合适。
That suggests that an Asian benchmark will rise to the fore. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to launch its own yuan-denominated contract this year. The new benchmark will have trouble getting off the ground. For one thing, China’s capital controls make it difficult for foreigners to buy the yuan needed to trade the contracts. The wild swings in China’s equity markets set an unnerving example for investors. But time is on its side.
有人建议将亚洲原油基准价抬出水面。上海国际能源交易中心（Shanghai International Energy Exchange）计划今年推出以人民币为结算货币的原油交易合约。新基准价在起步阶段必定会面临困境。原因就是中国的资本管制制度。当国外客户需要兑换人民币用以购买原油时，这个体制会给他们造成不小的麻烦。中国政府将羽翼伸向股市的先例，让投资者们始终无法打消对政府的顾虑。但不可否认，他们赢得了时机。