吴伯凡直觉与数据心得_您是“相信自己的直觉”还是依靠业务中的数据？

吴伯凡直觉与数据心得

In episode 46 of Bootstrapped.fm Ian and Andrey interview Jeffrey Way from Laracasts. It’s a great interview for lots of reasons but a section towards the end really jumped out at me.

在Bootstrapped.fm的第46集中，伊恩（Ian）和安德烈（Andrey）采访了《拉拉卡斯特》的杰弗里·韦。 由于很多原因，这是一次很棒的采访，但最后的部分确实让我惊讶。

Jeffrey said something about how people want to complicate business but very often what it comes down to is a gut feeling that something will do well. Ian went on to say how doing things based on “gut feeling” was not popular with the growth-hacking crowd who are all about data and metrics and measuring.

杰弗里（Jeffrey）说了一些有关人们如何使业务复杂化的事情，但通常归结为直觉，认为事情会做得很好。 Ian继续说，基于“直觉”的方式在受数据，指标和度量影响的增长型黑客群体中并不流行。

Like Ian I’m “big on the gut”. While I see the value of measuring and checking on the assumptions that might be behind those gut feelings, the fact remains that when I have listened to that feeling – both in terms of whether to do something, or not to do it, things have turned out pretty well.

像伊恩（Ian）一样，我“举足轻重”。 虽然我看到了衡量和检验可能存在于这些直觉中的假设的价值，但事实仍然是，当我倾听这种感觉时-无论是做某件事还是不做某件事，事情都已经转变了很好。

I do think however that those of us best placed to listen to gut feelings are perhaps on the more experienced side of the fence. We’re in most cases older than the typical startup founder, and with age comes life and industry experience. Once you’ve been around the block a few times; once you’ve earned your stripes slogging away in a job or client work; once you’ve embedded yourself in an industry and been part of it for years your gut becomes very accurate in predicting outcomes.

但是，我确实认为，最适合聆听直觉的人也许是在栅栏上经验更丰富的一方。 在大多数情况下，我们比典型的创业公司要老，随着年龄的增长，生活和行业经验也随之而来。 一旦您到过街区几次； 一旦获得收入，工作或客户工作中的条纹就消失了； 一旦您将自己融入某个行业并参与其中多年，您的直觉就会非常准确地预测结果。

The “startup lifestyle” suits the younger person. You can’t work every hour in the day and live in the office if you have a young family, or just the range of interests and commitments that develop as you grow older. I wonder how much that world loses by making itself not an option to those of us who have the experience to be able to trust the gut.

“创业生活方式”适合年轻人。 如果您有一个年轻的家庭，或者您随着年龄的增长会产生一系列的兴趣和承诺，那么您就不可能一天一小时地工作并住在办公室。 我想知道，如果我们自己没有选择权，而是拥有经验，能够相信自己的内心，那么世界将遭受多少损失。

翻译自: https://rachelandrew.co.uk/archives/2014/08/01/do-you-trust-your-gut-or-rely-on-data-in-business/

吴伯凡直觉与数据心得