桥水基金对2020年的经济分析

最近新冠疫情的爆发一定程度上加大了全球经济的不稳定性。中国股市最近也是大涨大跌，经济小白实在是搞不懂，于是搜索了一下桥水基金对新的十年的经济预测，毕竟他们成功提前几年预测到了08年的美国经济危机，并且有分析过历史上几乎所有的经济危机的案例，我认为历史是会重演，只有掌握历史才能应对当下。

整个经济分析有13页的PDF，其中以下这段有写道预测美国会进行财政宽松。

我想是不是因为衰退快要来临，新冠疫情在此时全球爆发导致的可能的停工停产会不会进一步加强衰退？毕竟经济危机主要是因为债务增长高于业务增长导致的入不付债。

Over time, we’d expect to see a march toward expansionary fiscal policy nearly everywhere. We expect policy makers will need to shift to what we’ve been discussing for a long time—what we call “Monetary Policy 3”—which is essentially coordinated monetary and fiscal policy aimed directly at supporting spending, with central banks monetizing fiscal deficits. This is likely whether from the right (through higher military spending or lower taxes) or from the left (through more direct spending on infrastructure or social programs). So far, there has been a palpable shift in the policy conversation in favor of more fiscal easing, but much less action. While political obstacles may slow it down in the near term (in particular, the divided government in the US), the trajectory seems clear.

file:///C:/Users/Richard%20Hung/Desktop/Bridgewater-Associates-2020-Strategic-Report.pdf

怕自己对整个报告的解读有误有于是在谷歌上进行了相关信息解读的搜索，查到其实在2019年9月彭博社的报道中就有提到瑞 达利欧预测到2020年美国会迎来经济衰退约25%，本次经济cycle的长期债务在2020年将会达到顶峰。

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-05/ray-dalio-sees-25-chance-of-recession-this-year-and-in-2020

无论是创业还是投资都要在经济形势下顺势而为，看来要研究一下做空了。

每日一更.68

2020.02.28