Long Haul Ahead For Germany

一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳。作为欧元区最大的经济体，德国经济显示出复苏快于预期的迹象，但德国决策者还无法对此感到欢呼雀跃。他们正在探寻手段，避免明年出现第二轮信贷紧缩。德国央行警告称，德国经济需要5年时间才能重新达到去年的经济产出水平。Bloomberg News/Landov德国的一家奔驰汽车组装厂这种谨慎态度是可以理解的。去年的信贷危机导致德国工业产值大幅下滑，暴露出德国银行业的高杠杆水平以及该国对出口的严重依赖，德国政府显然对这种状况始料未及。长期解决方案仍未实施到位。德国政府没有效仿英国和美国那样，对国内银行业实施政府主导的资本结构重新调整；也没有采取足够的有效举措推动德国经济重新实现平衡，逐渐转向倚重其消费者支出。目前取得成功的短期举措，例如汽车以旧换新项目以及补贴短期工作合约，都将于今年结束。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)认为，德国实施的短期工作项目使得该国失业率下降了3个百分点。7月份德国失业率为8.2%。尽管欧洲央行(ECB)采取了诸多举措推动信贷市场解冻，但德国中小企业仍在抱怨日益难以获得银行贷款。随着未来数月需求回升，他们需要更多资金来补充库存。考虑到美国英国和西班牙等德国最重要的出口市场料难出现强劲复苏，德国的国内需求和投资前景亦不容乐观。周三公布的德国生产者价格指数(PPI)出现了60年来最严重的降幅，显示了德国存在巨大的过剩产能，这恐怕不是经济温和复苏所能吸纳的。除非德国政府能够刺激国内需求，否则经济仍将面临通货紧缩危险。Matthew Curtin相关阅读德国第二季度GDP实现08年初以来首次增长 2009-08-13德国8月份ZEW经济预期指数大幅上升 2009-08-18德国6月份工业产值较前月下降0.1% 2009-08-07德国7月份商业景气指数高于预期 2009-07-24


Once bitten, twice shy. German policy-makers are yet to celebrate at signs the euro zone's biggest economy is recovering faster than expected. Berlin is looking at ways to avoid a second-round credit squeeze next year. The Bundesbank warns Germany is five year's away from regaining last year's level of economic output.  Such caution is understandable. The authorities were wrong-footed by the collapse in industrial output during the credit crisis, exposing German banks' high leverage and the country's overdependence on exports.  Long-term fixes are still not in place.  Germany is yet to embrace a state-led recapitalization of its banks, such as those adopted by the US and UK. Efforts to rebalance the economy towards consumer spending remain modest. And successful stop-gap measures, notably a car-scrapping scheme and subsidized short-term work contracts, end this year.BNP Paribas reckons the short-time work program has kept the jobless rate 3 percentage points below what it would have been. It was 8.2% in July. And despite all the European Central Bank's efforts to unblock credit markets, small and medium-sized German companies still complain about diminishing access to bank credit. They'll need more to rebuild inventory as demand recovers in the months ahead.It all points to a lackluster outlook for domestic demand and investment considering few predict strong rebounds in countries like the US, UK and Spain, among Germany's most important export markets. Wednesday's producer price inflation data, showing the severest decline in 60 years, is a reminder of massive excess capacity that a mild recovery won't absorb. Unless Berlin can stimulate domestic demand, a bout of deflation remains a danger.Matthew Curtin