Labor Pains Will Limit Stock Rally

虽然经济回暖的迹象推动美国股市强劲反弹，但就业市场仍然处于严冬之中。美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)周五将发布3月份就业报告，经济学家预计非农就业人数将减少673,000人。这样一来，本轮衰退中失业总人数将达到510万，为1929-1932年大萧条以来的最高水平。经济学家们认为，失业率已从8.1%上升至8.5%。小企业就业状况的极度疲软令当前的衰退对劳动者来说尤为艰难，小企业占了美国私营部门非农就业岗位的80%左右。人力资源服务公司Automatic Data Processing Inc.的数据显示，本轮衰退迄今，员工总数在500人以下的企业共削减了370万个职位，而2001年衰退期间这类企业共裁员170万人。房市和信贷市场的崩溃对小企业的打击尤其严重。全美独立企业联盟(National Federation of Independent Business)首席经济学家邓克尔伯格(William Dunkelberg)说，这些企业与住房建筑有很深的联系，而且通常需要贷款支付开支，其中80%为人力开支。去年第四季度消费开支出现萎缩时，小企业开始大规模裁员。这也意味着消费开支和建筑业的复苏能够带来就业人数的快速增加。但消费状况和房市不可能很快恢复到泡沫时代的水平。这样一来就等于遏制了就业的复苏，股市也会受到同样的影响。Mark Gongloff相关阅读美国股市还有反弹空间吗？ 2009-04-03错过股市上涨时机怎么办？ 2009-04-02全球股市终于分道扬镳 2009-04-02牛熊交锋之时该关注哪些股票？ 2009-04-02


While signs of economic spring have helped spark a roaring stock-market rally, it is still deep winter in the job market.The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its March jobs report Friday, and economists expect to see nonfarm payrolls down 673,000 jobs. That would bring job losses in this recession to 5.1 million, the most since 1929-32. Economists think unemployment jumped to 8.5% from 8.1%.What has made this recession particularly tough for workers is profound weakness in small-business employment, which accounts for roughly 80% of the private, nonfarm jobs in the U.S.Companies employing fewer than 500 have cut 3.7 million jobs so far in this recession, compared with 1.7 million at this point in the 2001 recession, according to data from payroll firm Automatic Data Processing.Small businesses have been particularly stung by the collapses of housing and credit. They are heavily involved in home construction and often need credit to pay expenses, 80% of which are labor, according to William Dunkelberg, chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Business.When consumer spending dried up in the fourth quarter of last year, small businesses drastically cut payrolls. That suggests a rebound in spending and home construction could lead to some fast hiring.But consumption and housing won't return to their bubble-era levels soon. That will keep a lid on hiring -- and on stocks.Mark Gongloff