Greenspan vs. the Greenspan Doctrine

根据“格林斯潘学说”，技术先进的现代金融市场最好是让它们自我监督。不过这个学说如今有了一个越来越直言不讳的批评者。这个人就是艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)。在担任美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)主席期间，格林斯潘经常反对对市场进行监管。他曾说，成熟的市场越来越得心应手于自我分散风险把风险广泛分摊给投资者以及最适合管理风险的金融机构。这位已经退休的美联储主席现在不得不改变看法了。在周二晚间纽约经济俱乐部(New York Economic Club)晚宴上的讲话中，格林斯潘对他在催生当前这场信贷泡沫方面所发挥的作用基本未作反省。不过，他确实再次严厉批评了认为市场有自我调整倾向的看法，赞同我们需要进入一个监管更加严格的新时期。格林斯潘说，所有复杂的数学和电脑魔力根本上都是基于一个核心前提：金融机构所有者和管理者明了自己的利益，他们因此会积极地监督和管理企业的资本和风险水平，让企业保持充足的资本以避免发生无力偿债的情况。他说，2007年夏季这个前提不成立了，这让他深感沮丧。格林斯潘说，自我监督仍是防守的第一步。不过在2007年和2008年金融体系崩溃之后，我认为没有什么能够取代一套更加严格的联邦监管规定，对银行等金融机构的行为进行监督。他说，希望加强监管会以提高银行资本金要求的形式进行。他的话与去年10月自己的证词一致。当时格林斯潘承认，他对市场动荡感到极度难以置信。格林斯潘还对世界各地投资者遭遇的损失进行了冷静的评估。他认为，在考虑到全球股市下挫，房屋价格下滑和非上市企业的损失之后，全球损失将超过40万亿美元。他说，这类帐面价值的蒸发可能会严重打击全球经济活动。他还说，复苏很可能要在股价反弹的推动下才能实现。无论反弹何时出现。Jon Hilsenrath相关阅读格林斯潘：难以确定经济复苏时间 2009-02-18


The Greenspan Doctrine   a view that modern, technologically advanced financial markets are best left to police themselves   has an increasingly vocal detractor. His name is Alan Greenspan.As Fed chairman, Mr. Greenspan was a frequent opponent of market regulation. Sophisticated markets, he argued, had become increasingly adept at carving up risk themselves and dispersing it widely to investors and financial institutions best suited to manage it.The retired chairman has had to revise his views. In comments at a New York Economic Club dinner late Tuesday, the retired Fed chairman steered clear of much self-reflection on his role in the credit boom. But he did take a new swipe at the market's self-correcting tendencies and bowed his head to a new period of increased regulation.'All of the sophisticated mathematics and computer wizardry essentially rested on one central premise: that enlightened self interest of owners and managers of financial institutions would lead them to maintain a sufficient buffer against insolvency by actively monitoring and managing their firms' capital and risk positions,' the Fed chairman said. The premise failed in the summer of 2007, he said, leaving him 'deeply dismayed.'Self-regulation is still a first-line of defense, Mr. Greenspan said. But after the financial collapse of 2007 and 2008, 'I see no alternative to a set of heightened federal regulatory rules of behavior for banks and other financial institutions.' He said hoped hoped it would come in the form of tougher capital requirements for banks.His comments echoed testimony of the former Fed chairman made last October, when he acknowledged his state of 'shocked disbelief' at the market turmoil.The former Fed chief also offered a sobering assessment of the losses now being nursed by investors around the world, which he tallied up to more than $40 trillion, when accounting for global stock declines, home prices declines and losses of unlisted businesses.'The evaporation of the value of those 'paper claims' can have a profoundly deflationary impact on global economic activity,' he said. A rebound, he added, would likely be driven by a rebound in stock prices. Whenever that comes.Jon Hilsenrath