Fed Keeps Its Helping Hand On Economy
眼下，美国经济是否已经强壮到可以靠自己的两条腿走路，不再需要联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)的帮助？经济学家经常问这个问题。近期数据清楚地显示，美国经济已经扭转急剧下滑的状态，甚至不久或许就将再次开始增长。关键的利率指标──10年期美国国债收益率已攀升到3.17%，是自去年11月以来的最高水平。10年期国债收益率影响到按揭利率，美联储一直在购买美国国债抵押贷款支持证券以及房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)的债券，以维持低水平的借贷成本，支撑美国住房市场。美联储购买国债的本意是为提高其价格，从而拉低收益率（国债价格和收益率呈负相关）。在美联储的帮助下，偏低的抵押贷款利率今年引发了一波再融资热潮，这对经济是一个积极的支撑。直到最近之前，传统观念一直认为，美联储不会让10年期收益率突破3%，冒着扼杀再融资潮的险。然而事情并非如此：在上周的政策会议上，美联储并没有采取行动，而是听任收益率上升，并未承诺购买更多美国国债。随着全球金融系统崩溃，美联储加大了债券购买计划，这些计划将其资产负债表上的贷款和其他资产规模扩大了一倍，至超过2万亿美元。美联储的资产已在这一水平附近停滞，而且资产负债表的部分项目还在收缩。自美联储3月18日宣布计划购买更多国债以来，它已放出价值2,030亿美元的短期商业票据和其他与去年的市场崩溃密切相关的债券。但这些计划作为针对市场的辅助措施仍在实施中。而且，自那以来，美联储已积累了接近2,220亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款相关债券。许多美联储观察人士怀疑，美联储不会听任10年期国债收益率升得太高，除非同时期经济出现繁荣。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)美国利率研究部门负责人查德赫里(Mustafa Chowdhury)最近对客户表示，如果花那么大的精力去助推按揭贷款再融资潮流，然后听任债券抛售破坏再融资过程，从而导致上述努力在开始阶段就被放弃，这样做没什么意义。在目前水平，10年期收益率还不至于扼杀经济。它们远低于2008年时创纪录的3.66%的平均水平。低于3%的利率水平更适合处于极度紧急状态的经济，而不是疲弱但正在趋于稳定的经济。金融体系正在趋稳，这主要得益于美联储的政策。回到原状的风险是不可想像的。美联储放开其利率支持措施的那天还很遥远。哈佛大学经济学家罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说，当金融系统显示出不需要联邦政府的担保，能够自己融资的能力时，我们会知道我们该退场了。罗格夫与马里兰大学经济学家莱恩哈特(Carmen Reinhart)一起对过去的金融危机进行了研究。他说，我们现在离那个地步还远得很。那将至少需要两三年的时间。Mark Gongloff相关阅读美联储将修改TALF贷款条款 2009-05-01美联储维持基准利率不变 称经济前景好转 2009-04-30美联储的考验：何时从市场撤资 2009-04-20贝南克：监管不应妨碍金融创新 2009-04-18美联储资产规模扩大至2.19万亿美元 2009-04-17
Is the economy strong enough yet to toddle on its own two legs, without the Federal Reserve's help?Economists are asking the question more often. Recent data make clear the economy has pulled out of its steep dive and may even expand again soon. A key interest rate, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, has climbed to 3.17%, the highest since November.The 10-year yield affects mortgage rates, and the Fed has been buying Treasurys, along with mortgage-backed securities and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt, to keep borrowing costs low and support the housing market.Fed buying is meant to push debt prices higher, driving down yields, as prices and yields move inversely. With the Fed's help, low mortgage rates have fueled a refinancing boomlet this year, a nice prop for the economy.Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that the Fed wouldn't let the 10-year yield cross 3% and risk throttling the refinancing wave. So much for that: At last week's policy meeting, the Fed stepped aside and let the yield rise without promising to buy more Treasurys.As the global financial system imploded, the Fed ramped up debt-buying programs that doubled the pile of loans and other assets on its balance sheet to more than $2 trillion.Fed assets have stalled out at about that level, and some parts of the balance sheet are shrinking. Since March 18, when the Fed announced its plan to buy more Treasurys, it has shed $203 billion of short-term commercial paper and other debt at the core of last year's meltdown.But those programs are still in place, serving as training wheels for the market. And, since that date, the Fed has accumulated nearly $222 billion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-related debt. Many Fed watchers doubt it will let the 10-year yield drift too high, unless the economy is booming at the same time.'It makes little sense to have put so much effort to engineer a mortgage-refinancing wave, only to abandon the effort when still at the beginning stages, by letting a bond sell-off undermine the refi process,' Mustafa Chowdhury, head of U.S. rates research at Deutsche Bank, told clients recently.At the current level, 10-year yields aren't exactly smothering the economy. They are well below the 2008 average of 3.66%, which was a record low. Anything below 3% may be more appropriate for an economy with its hair on fire and falling down the stairs than for a very weak, but stabilizing, economy.The financial system is stabilizing largely as a result of the Fed's policies, and the risks of a relapse are unthinkable.The day the Fed kicks its interest-rate props away is distant. 'When the financial system shows the ability to raise its own funds without a federal guarantee, we'll know we're out,' says Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who studies past financial crises with Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart. 'We're nowhere near there. It will take at least a couple of years.'Mark Gongloff
Is the economy strong enough yet to toddle on its own two legs, without the Federal Reserve's help?Economists are asking the question more often. Recent data make clear the economy has pulled out of its steep dive and may even expand again soon. A key interest rate, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, has climbed to 3.17%, the highest since November.The 10-year yield affects mortgage rates, and the Fed has been buying Treasurys, along with mortgage-backed securities and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt, to keep borrowing costs low and support the housing market.Fed buying is meant to push debt prices higher, driving down yields, as prices and yields move inversely. With the Fed's help, low mortgage rates have fueled a refinancing boomlet this year, a nice prop for the economy.Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that the Fed wouldn't let the 10-year yield cross 3% and risk throttling the refinancing wave. So much for that: At last week's policy meeting, the Fed stepped aside and let the yield rise without promising to buy more Treasurys.As the global financial system imploded, the Fed ramped up debt-buying programs that doubled the pile of loans and other assets on its balance sheet to more than $2 trillion.Fed assets have stalled out at about that level, and some parts of the balance sheet are shrinking. Since March 18, when the Fed announced its plan to buy more Treasurys, it has shed $203 billion of short-term commercial paper and other debt at the core of last year's meltdown.But those programs are still in place, serving as training wheels for the market. And, since that date, the Fed has accumulated nearly $222 billion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-related debt. Many Fed watchers doubt it will let the 10-year yield drift too high, unless the economy is booming at the same time.'It makes little sense to have put so much effort to engineer a mortgage-refinancing wave, only to abandon the effort when still at the beginning stages, by letting a bond sell-off undermine the refi process,' Mustafa Chowdhury, head of U.S. rates research at Deutsche Bank, told clients recently.At the current level, 10-year yields aren't exactly smothering the economy. They are well below the 2008 average of 3.66%, which was a record low. Anything below 3% may be more appropriate for an economy with its hair on fire and falling down the stairs than for a very weak, but stabilizing, economy.The financial system is stabilizing largely as a result of the Fed's policies, and the risks of a relapse are unthinkable.The day the Fed kicks its interest-rate props away is distant. 'When the financial system shows the ability to raise its own funds without a federal guarantee, we'll know we're out,' says Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who studies past financial crises with Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart. 'We're nowhere near there. It will take at least a couple of years.'Mark Gongloff