Americans' Faith In Markets Up A Bit

芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)和西北大学(Northwestern University)的两位经济学家进行的一项调查显示，今年第一季度美国人对股市的整体信心略有上升。但在政府干预金融体系之后，股市对受访者的吸引力因其所属党派不同而异。去年12月推出的“金融信心指数”(Financial Trust Index)用于跟踪美国人对金融体系的信任度。该指数由西北大学凯洛洛商学院(Kellogg School)的萨品泽(Paola Sapienza)和芝加哥大学布斯商学院(Booth School of Business)的森格勒斯(Luigi Zingales)合作开发，用于衡量美国人对他们可投资的私营机构(银行股市共同基金和大公司)持什么态度。该指数的最新数据是依据3月份后两周对1,013人进行的调查得出的。调查显示，3月份，受访者对股市的信任度从去年12月的11%上升至13%，反映出人们的投资意愿有所提高，对投资回报的期望值也有提高。受访者中，认为股市“很有可能或有可能”在未来12个月下跌30%以上的比例有所下降(3月份为47%，去年12月为56%)。(没错，预期股市会出现剧跌的人数还是高得惊人。)政府对金融体系的干预令67%的美国人对投资各类市场的信心降低，去年12月这一比例为80%。但信心提高的主要是民主党人和无党派人士：自称民主党人的受访者中，大约有25%表示，政府进行干预后他们对投资股市更有信心了，去年12月这一比例为12%。约12%的无党派人士同样有这种感觉，三个月前为9%。共和党人则对政府干预保持警惕：政府干预金融体系令76%的共和党人对投资股市的信心下降，不过这一比例较去年12月的82%也有所下降。受访者对银行和大公司的信任度继续下滑，因这些机构的裁员数量不断增加，同时公众对其奖金的愤怒情绪也在加剧。Sudeep Reddy


Americans' overall faith in the stock market increased slightly in the first quarter, according to a survey by a pair of economists at the University of Chicago and Northwestern University. But the stock market's appeal following government intervention remains split along party lines.The Financial Trust Index, developed by Paola Sapienza of Northwestern's Kellogg School and Luigi Zingales of Chicago's Booth School of Business, was launched in December to track U.S. trust in the financial system. The latest reading, which measures attitudes toward private institutions in which Americans can invest their money (banks, the stock market, mutual funds, and large corporations), was based on a survey of 1,013 people in the final two weeks of March.Trust toward the stock market increased to 13% in March from 11% in December, reflecting a willingness to invest and higher expectations for returns, the survey found. Fewer people (47% in March vs. 56% in December) think it's 'very likely or somewhat likely' that the stock market will drop more than 30% in the next 12 months. (Yes, that's still a surprisingly high number of people expecting a sharp drop in stocks.)Government intervention in the financial system makes 67% of Americans less confident in investing in markets, down from 80% in December. But the improvement was concentrated among Democrats and independents: About 25% of people identifying as Democrats said they felt more confident investing in the stock market after government interventions, compared with 12% in December. About 12% of independents said they felt the same way, up from 9% three months ago.Republicans remain wary about the government involvement: 76% of Republicans are less confident in investing in stocks following the interventions, though down from 82% in December.Trust toward banks and large corporations continued to decline as layoffs mount and public anger over bonuses grows.Sudeep Reddy