Can Rally Last On Diet Of Junk?
垃圾为王。自股市从3月初的12年来低点开始反弹以来，最大的赢家都是跌幅最大的股票，在许多投资者看来，这些股票未来的风险依然很大。赢家主要以金融类股为主，它们中的许多在短短1个半月时间里就上涨了一倍多。Bloomberg News纽约证交所交易大厅里的交易员们尽管在股市大幅下跌后，这种由垃圾股引领的反弹实属正常，但有些人说，这种反弹应转性为由优质公司领涨。否则，在经济持续低迷和收益令人失望的情况下，反弹可能会夭折。最起码，这样的反弹令许多投资者感到惊讶。人们普遍持有的观点是，股票反弹时的最佳投资目标应是那些有资源渡过长期经济困境的优质公司。但是，这次的赢家都是那些基本面不好的公司，它们不是负债很高就是股本收益率很低。尽管与反弹中那些涨幅最大的股票失之交臂，但关注“优质”公司的人士说，他们还会坚持这点。加州的理财顾问霍坎森(Neil Hokanson)指出，到目前为止，走势最强的一直是金融类股和消费类股。当我们看看这些领域的实质基本面时，我们看不出达到这种乐观程度的任何理由。股市对这种怀疑毫不理会，而是维持住了3月9日以来的大部分涨幅。在此期间，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上涨了23%，标准普尔500指数上涨了28%。标准普尔500指数中的金融类股上涨了76%，包括汽车和餐馆在内的非必需消费品类股上涨了43%。金融类股的涨幅如此之大，以至于它们引领了整个标准普尔500指数的上涨，尽管它们在该指数中所占的权重比过去下降了许多。对标准普尔500指数反弹贡献最大的五只股票中，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)拥有庞大金融子公司的通用电气(General Electric)富国银行(Wells Fargo)和美国银行(Bank of America)都榜上有名。与此形成对比的是，科技类股的涨幅为34%。许多投资者曾预计，由于资产负债状况良好，科技类股应会在反弹中领涨。金融类股和消费类股反弹的原因之一是，许多股票的价格在反弹前实际上都跌到了崩溃的境地。但是，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)向金融体系注入资金的积极举措，以及政府采取的其它措施，也有助于金融类股免于出现最坏的情况。同时，过去几周里的经济数据一直“不坏”，也就是说，经济衰退的步伐正在放缓。汤森路透(Thomson Reuters Co.)的数据还显示出另一个积极的信号，即美国上市公司第一季度的收益好于此前大幅下调后的预期。上周末，福特汽车(Ford), 美国运通公司(American Express)亚马逊(Amazon)和微软(Microsoft)等各行各业的公司都公布了让投资者感到欣慰的报告。标准普尔500指数成份股公司已经有35%公布了第一季度业绩，人们由此预计该指数成份股公司第一季度的经营利润会下降35.3%，而4月1日时的预期为下降36%。不过，分析师在继续下调对今年二季度和今年剩余时间的预测。一些人说，在那一趋势逆转之前，股市很难持续长时间的上涨。对截至6月份的一个季度，现在作出的收益预测是下滑33.7%，而本月初作出的预测为下降31.7%。全年来说，现在预计收益将下降10.6%，而4月1日作出的预测是下滑8.4%。在金融类股反弹之际，对金融企业收益的预测却进一步下调。现在的普遍预测是，金融企业二季度利润下滑45%，较4月1日作出的预测多了5个百分点。不过，很多金融类股的反弹令人瞩目。比如，E*Trade Financial自3月9日以来涨了319%，花旗集团(Citigroup)涨204%，Huntington Bancshares涨了200%。从某种程度上讲，这样一种突如其来的反弹上涨并不出人意料。2003年，在上次的熊市之后，首先反弹的正是那些跌幅最大的股票。Shields & Co.首席技术分析师格里兹(Frank Gretz)说，跌的最惨的通常也是涨的最多的。不过格里兹也指出，最近沃尔玛(Wal-Mart Stores)和麦当劳(McDonald's)等行业领头羊的表现与小型竞争对手之间的差异很大。沃尔玛和麦当劳自3月9日以来只分别涨了0.8%和3.8%。与此同时，Ross Stores涨了33%，华馆(P.F. Chang's China Bistro)则涨了近一倍。巴克莱(Barclays Capital)全球量化股市战略负责人罗丝曼(Matthew Rothman)研究了前100只表现最好的大公司股票在3月10-4月9日间的情况，他发现其中的一个共性是股价都不到5美元。大型机构投资者在这些股票中的持股也相对较少。罗丝曼说，出现反弹的都是些品质让人非常怀疑的公司；这些公司的名字让人得有极大的勇气才敢在反弹之前投资其中。罗丝曼说，另一方面，有证据表明垃圾股的涨势可能仍有延续的空间。根据他的估计，质量不太高的股票最近进一步下跌，而优质股票则开始有显得股价过高。不过罗丝曼认为，股市涨势不会持续下去。他说，上次的熊市之后，下挫严重的价值股出现了持续多年的上涨；与那时候不同的是，这次信贷泡沫的破裂对股市好转带来了更大的挑战。不过并非所有的人都持怀疑立场。Shields的格里兹说，尽管只有部分类股上涨，但反弹是普遍的。他说，只要大部分股票都参与其中，这就是股市成功上涨的关键。Tom Lauricella相关阅读公司业绩好于预期限制美股向下回调空间 2009-04-27远离银行股的十个理由 2009-04-24美国股市依然在顽强上涨 2009-04-20科技股涨势将接受收益报告考验 2009-04-20低期望值推动下的股市上涨 2009-04-20
Trash is king.The biggest winners since the stock market bounced off 12-year lows in early March have been the most beaten-down names, which, in the eyes of many investors, also have the riskiest outlooks. This winners list has been dominated by financial stocks, many of which have more than doubled in value in just a month and a half.While such a junk-stock rally after a massive selloff isn't unusual, some say the rebound is going to have to change in character to be led by higher-quality companies. Otherwise, it could falter amid continued economic weakness and earnings disappointments.At the very least, the rally caught many investors flat-footed. It had been a widely held view that the best place to be whenever stocks recovered would be high-quality companies with the resources to tough out an extended difficult economic environment. Instead, the winners have been those with the shakiest fundamentals, such as high levels of debt or low return on equity.Despite missing the biggest gainers in the bounce, those with a 'quality' focus say they are sticking with it.'By far and away the strength has been in financials and consumer' stocks, notes Neil Hokanson, a Solana Beach, Calif., adviser. 'And when we look at the underpinnings in both of those areas we don't see any reason for that level of optimism.'Defying such skepticism, the stock market is holding on to most of the gains chalked up since March 9. In that time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 23% and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has gained 28%.Financial stocks in the S&P 500 are up 76% and consumer-discretionary names, which include autos and restaurants, are up 43%.The gains in financials have been so outsized that they have led the overall S&P 500 higher even though they comprise a much smaller part of the index than in the past. Four of the five biggest contributors to the S&P 500 rally have been J.P. Morgan Chase, General Electric (with its big finance division), Wells Fargo and Bank of America.In contrast, technology stocks, which many investors have expected to lead a rally because of their generally strong balance sheets, are up 34%.One reason for the bounce in financial and consumer stocks is that many had essentially been priced for extinction. But the aggressive steps by the Federal Reserve to pump cash into the financial system, along with other government efforts, have helped take those worst-case scenarios off the table. Meanwhile, on the economic front the catchphrase in the last few weeks has been 'less bad,' meaning that the pace of the economic decline is lessening.Another positive has been that first-quarter earnings are coming in a touch better than sharply reduced expectations, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Late last week, companies as varied as Ford, American Express, Amazon and Microsoft each came out with reports that investors found reason to cheer. With 35% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported, first-quarter operating earnings are now expected to post a 35.3% decline, compared with the 36% drop expected on April 1.Tom Lauricella
Trash is king.The biggest winners since the stock market bounced off 12-year lows in early March have been the most beaten-down names, which, in the eyes of many investors, also have the riskiest outlooks. This winners list has been dominated by financial stocks, many of which have more than doubled in value in just a month and a half.While such a junk-stock rally after a massive selloff isn't unusual, some say the rebound is going to have to change in character to be led by higher-quality companies. Otherwise, it could falter amid continued economic weakness and earnings disappointments.At the very least, the rally caught many investors flat-footed. It had been a widely held view that the best place to be whenever stocks recovered would be high-quality companies with the resources to tough out an extended difficult economic environment. Instead, the winners have been those with the shakiest fundamentals, such as high levels of debt or low return on equity.Despite missing the biggest gainers in the bounce, those with a 'quality' focus say they are sticking with it.'By far and away the strength has been in financials and consumer' stocks, notes Neil Hokanson, a Solana Beach, Calif., adviser. 'And when we look at the underpinnings in both of those areas we don't see any reason for that level of optimism.'Defying such skepticism, the stock market is holding on to most of the gains chalked up since March 9. In that time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 23% and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has gained 28%.Financial stocks in the S&P 500 are up 76% and consumer-discretionary names, which include autos and restaurants, are up 43%.The gains in financials have been so outsized that they have led the overall S&P 500 higher even though they comprise a much smaller part of the index than in the past. Four of the five biggest contributors to the S&P 500 rally have been J.P. Morgan Chase, General Electric (with its big finance division), Wells Fargo and Bank of America.In contrast, technology stocks, which many investors have expected to lead a rally because of their generally strong balance sheets, are up 34%.One reason for the bounce in financial and consumer stocks is that many had essentially been priced for extinction. But the aggressive steps by the Federal Reserve to pump cash into the financial system, along with other government efforts, have helped take those worst-case scenarios off the table. Meanwhile, on the economic front the catchphrase in the last few weeks has been 'less bad,' meaning that the pace of the economic decline is lessening.Another positive has been that first-quarter earnings are coming in a touch better than sharply reduced expectations, according to data from Thomson Reuters. Late last week, companies as varied as Ford, American Express, Amazon and Microsoft each came out with reports that investors found reason to cheer. With 35% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported, first-quarter operating earnings are now expected to post a 35.3% decline, compared with the 36% drop expected on April 1.Tom Lauricella