中国抄底囤油2.69亿吨，还有多大空间？

今年全球原油需求疲软之际，中国成了仅剩的市场亮点，油气供应商则竞相在此打开销路。海关总署近期公布的数据显示，上半年 中国原油进口同比逆势增长9.9%，累计进口2.69亿吨，这无疑将进一步巩固我国全球最大原油进口国的地位。 在大量进口的同时，中国石油储备能力是否获得了飞跃式的提升？ 全球需求持续下降，强劲的买方市场能支撑多久？ 欢迎回顾《经济学人·商论》五月刊精选文章。

《经济学人·商论》五月刊

《中国的惠顾》（Custom of the country）

Commodities
大宗商品

Custom of the country
中国的惠顾 With oil prices so low, China presides over a buyer’s market
油价如此之低，中国统领买方市场
WHEN OIL supply threatened to overwhelm storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, in April, the pain was felt as far as Chongqing. Retail investors in the Bank of China’s oil bao, or “treasure”, a speculative vehicle linked to crude futures, took a hit as the May contract for West Texas Intermediate settled at an astonishing -$37.63 a barrel on April 20th. The market’s gyrations have led to consternation in China—regulators have reportedly called for an investigation—and revealed unexpected victims. In general, though, plunging prices have served Chinese buyers rather well.
上个月，过剩的石油供应让俄克拉荷马州库欣（Cushing）的储油罐几近满溢，万里之外的重庆也感受到了同样的烦恼。4月20日，西得克萨斯中质原油的5月合约结算价跌至惊人的每桶-37.63美元，使得中国银行“原油宝”（与原油期货挂钩的投机工具）的散户遭受重创。市场波动在中国引发恐慌——据悉监管机构已经要求就此展开调查，并挖出了一些出人意料的受害者。不过，总体而言，油价暴跌对中国买家颇为有利。

In 2017 China became the world’s biggest importer of crude, surpassing America, and the second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), behind Japan. Dependence on foreign fuels has long been deemed a strategic vulnerability. But now oil and gas suppliers are toiling to secure Chinese buyers, not the other way round.
中国在2017年超越美国，成为全球最大的原油进口国，并成为仅次于日本的第二大液化天然气（LNG）进口国。长期以来，对能源进口的依赖都被视为一个战略弱点。但现在，石油和天然气供应商正在竭力争取中国买家，而不是反过来。

China’s heft was set to grow even before covid-19 kept cars parked and planes grounded. In the long term the growth of China’s population and economy make it a likely source of rising demand, even if climate change clouds prospects for oil and gas elsewhere. Companies and petrostates have worked to secure their share of China’s market: Russia’s Power of Siberia gas pipeline opened in December; ExxonMobil’s efforts include a 20-year deal to supply LNG to Zhejiang Provincial Energy Group.
即便在新冠肺炎导致车辆停开、飞机停飞之前，中国影响力增长的趋势就已明朗。尽管气候变化给其他地区的石油和天然气前景蒙上阴影，但从长远来看，中国的能源需求很可能随着它的人口和经济增长而水涨船高。油气企业和产油国已经在努力确保自己在中国的市场份额：去年12月，俄罗斯的西伯利亚力量（Power of Siberia）天然气管道开通；埃克森美孚与浙江省能源集团签署了一项为期20年的液化天然气供销协议。

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【付费文章】中国的库存储量何时见顶？长期以来，对能源进口的依赖都被视为战略弱点，中国本地油气开采又会否提速？《中国的惠顾》（Custom of the country）已发布在《经济学人·商论》五月刊，欢迎下载App双语阅读并聆听原声音频。订阅更可同步解锁商论发刊至今的2500余篇往期文章，包括1500多篇文章的英文原声音频。

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