试译《今日简史》18

Can you guess how long it took AlphaZero to learn chess from scratch, prepare for the match against Stockfish, and develop its genius instincts? Four hours. That's not a typo. For centuries, chess was consideredone of the crowning glories of human intelligence. AlphaZero went from utter ignorance to creative mastery in four hours, without the help of any human guide.

你能猜到AlphaZero从零开始学习国际象棋，为与Stockfish的比赛做准备，并且开发出天才本能总共花了多长时间吗？答案是四个小时。这可不是打字错误。几个世纪以来，国际象棋被认为是人类智慧的最高荣誉之一。在没有任何人指导的情况下，AlphaZero只用了四个小时就从无知状态达到了具备创造力的水平。

那么，AlphaZero从零开始学习国际象棋，用了多久才准备好与Stockfish的对局，而且发展出天才般的直觉？答案是4小时。你没看错，就是4小时。千百年来，国际象棋一直被认为是人类智慧的绝顶展现。但AlphaZero只花了4个小时，完全没有任何人类指导协助，就从一无所知变成创意十足的大师。【林俊宏】

AlphaZero is not the only imaginative software out there. Many programs now routinely outperform human chess players not just in brute calculation,but even in 'creativity'. In human-only chess tournaments, judges are constantly on the lookout for players who try to cheat by secretly getting help from computers. One of the ways to catch cheats is to monitor the level of originality players display. If they play an exceptionally creative move, the judges will often suspect that this cannot possibly be a human move - it must be a computer move. At least in chess, creativity is already the trademark of computers rather than humans. Hence if chess is our coal-mine canary, we are duly warned that the canary is dying. What is happening today to human-AI chess teams might happen down the road to human-AI teams in policing, medicine and banking too.

AlphaZero不是唯一一款具有想象力的软件。现在，许多程序不仅在基本计算方面，甚至在“创造力”方面，都比人类棋手表现得更为出色。在仅限人类参加的象棋锦标赛中，评委们一直在寻找那些试图通过偷偷从电脑获得帮助来作弊的棋手。其中一种抓获作弊的方法是监控棋手的原创水平。如果棋手走了一步非常有创造性的棋路，评委们通常会怀疑这不可能是人类的棋路，一定是电脑的棋路。至少在国际象棋中，创造力已经是计算机的标志，而不是人类的标志。因此，如果把国际象棋比作我们“矿井中的金丝雀”，我们就会适时收到警告：金丝雀正在死亡。今天发生在人类-人工智能象棋队身上的事情，将来也可能会在警务、医学和银行业发生。

AlphaZero绝不是市面上唯一能够拥有想象力的软件。现在许多程序已经不只在单纯的运算次数上超越人类棋手，就连“创意”也不在话下。现在在限定人类参加的国际象棋比赛中，裁判会不断注意是否有棋手偷偷用计算机作弊。而抓到作弊的方法之一，就是观察棋手所展现的原创性高低。如果有人走了极具创意的一步，裁判常常会怀疑这不是人走出来的，肯定是计算机走出来的。所以，至少在国际象棋这个领域，创意已经不是人类的专利，而是计算机的专利！以前会用金丝雀来侦测煤矿里是否出现有毒气体，而如果国际象棋是我们的煤矿金丝雀，我们已经收到警告：这只金丝雀正面临死亡。而现在发生在人类与人工智能国际象棋组合上的事情，未来也可能发生在警务、医药和银行业。【林俊宏】

Consequently, creating new jobs and retraining people to fill them will not be a one-off effort. The AI revolution won't be a single watershed event after which the job market will just settle into a new equilibrium.Rather, it will be a cascade of ever-bigger disruptions. Already today few employees expect to work in the same job for their entire life. By 2050, not just the idea of 'a job for life', but even the idea of 'a profession for life'might seem antediluvian. 

因此，创造新的工作岗位并对员工进行再培训，以填补这些岗位空白，并不是一蹴而就的。人工智能革命不会是单一的分水岭事件，在此之后，就业市场就会进入一个新的平衡。相反，将来会有大量更为严重的混乱。如今，很少有员工会终身从事同一份工作。到2050年，不仅仅是“终身工作”的想法，甚至“终身职业”的想法也可能会显得过时。

因此，创造新的工作、让劳动者接受再培训而重新就业，并不是能够一劳永逸的方法。人工智能革命不会是一个单一的分水岭，可别以为在这之后就业市场就会达到新的平衡状态。相反，破坏只会像雪崩般扩大。现在已经很少有人认为自己能够一辈子都做同一份工作。而到了2050年，别说同一份工作，就连同一个专业领域也不太可能让人待一辈子。【林俊宏】

Even if we could constantly invent new jobs and retrain the workforce, we may wonder whether the average human will have the emotional stamina necessary for a life of such endless upheavals. Change is always stressful, and the hectic world of the early twenty-first century has produced a global epidemic of stress. As the volatility of the job market and of individual careers increases, would people be able to cope? We would probably need far more effective stress-reduction techniques - ranging from drugs through neuro-feedback to meditation - to prevent the Sapiens mind from snapping. By 2050 a 'useless' class might emerge not merely because of an absolute lack of jobs or lack of relevant education, but also because of insufficient mental stamina.

即使我们能够不断创造新的就业机会，并对劳动力进行再培训，我们也可能想知道，普通人是否有足够的情感毅力来承受这种无休止的动荡。改变总是充满压力的，二十一世纪初的繁忙已经导致了全球性的压力流行病。随着就业市场和个人职业的波动加剧，人们是否能够从容应对?我们可能需要更有效的减压技术——从药物到神经反馈再到冥想——来防止人类思想崩溃。到2050年，可能会出现“无用”阶级，不仅是因为他们完全找不到工作或缺乏相关教育，还因为他们的精神耐力不足。

就算我们真的能够不断创造出新工作，让劳动者接受再培训，但像这样生活永无宁日，一般人的精神又是否能撑得下去？变化总会带来压力，21世纪初的纷纷扰扰，已经造成全球性的压力蔓延。而随着就业市场和个人职业生涯的波动不断加剧，人类是否真能应对？或许，人类将会需要更有效的减压方式（从药物、神经反馈到冥想等），来避免智人精神崩溃。到2050年，“无用阶层”的出现可能不只是因为找不到工作、没受过相关教育，还可能因为精神动力不足。【林俊宏】