Brexit and a by-election
At a forthcoming by-election, voters don’t care about Brexit
Canvassers discover there is no Brexit dividend for Labour or the Tories
BRITONS TIRED of Brexit could do worse than head to Newport. A flick through the pamphlets of the two leading candidates in the Welsh city’s by-election, which is set for April 4th, provides a break from the endless talk about Britain leaving the EU. Labour’s candidate, Ruth Jones, makes no mention of it, instead promising more police on Newport’s mean streets. Matthew Evans, the Conservative challenger, has sidelined Brexit in favour of a simpler main message to voters in the traffic-clogged city: “Build the M4 relief road now.”
Knocking on a few doors on a street of plush houses explains why both candidates avoid the B-word. For each voter delighted by Britain’s impending departure from the EU, another despairs. After a short soliloquy extolling the virtues of Margaret Thatcher, one self-declared lifelong Conservative voter says he does not know whether he can back the party again. “My party has ripped apart our ability to trade in the world,” he moans. Others on the road have the opposite complaint: why have we not gone yet?
When it comes to Brexit, the seat of Newport West is bang on the national average. Across the country, the median constituency result was a 53.6% Leave victory. In Newport West, 53.7% voted out. Therein lies the problem for candidates both in Newport and beyond: for every voter potentially won over by a firm line on Brexit, another is likely to be repelled. For an MP in the most typical seats—slightly Leave or mildly Remain, rather than overwhelmingly either—the great political issue of the moment is something best ignored.
It adds to the impression that the Newport contest is taking place in a vacuum, sealed off from national politics. It is not just Brexit that goes unmentioned. Neither party leader features prominently. Jeremy Corbyn dropped by on March 22nd for the funeral of Paul Flynn, the Labour MP who died last month aged 84, having held the seat since 1987. Mr Corbyn stayed long enough only to star in an accidental photo opportunity with an Alsatian. “I respect him,” is all Ms Jones will say about her party leader. (She opted for endorsements from a local resident, a Welsh Assembly member and a charity manager on her leaflet, rather than Mr Corbyn.)
Theresa May, meanwhile, has gone from an ever-present fixture of the 2017 general election to being barely mentioned by Tory campaigners.
Turnout is expected to be typically low for a by-election, with estimates averaging about 40%. “There hasn’t been election fever,” concedes Mr Evans, as he shoves leaflets proclaiming his passion for traffic decongestion through the letterboxes of large houses with tidy gardens. Neither party has set much store by the seat’s fate. Labour’s strategy seems to be fundamentally defensive: hanging on to the seat would appear to be reward enough.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, have run an equally restrained campaign. Mr Flynn had an unspectacular majority of 5,658. Labour held the seat in 2017 only thanks to an unexpected surge in support for Mr Corbyn’s party during the election campaign—a red tide that may since have ebbed. But the past 18 months of shambolic government in Westminster has damaged Tory chances, fear party wallahs. “Now, of course, we probably couldn’t win a tombola,” remarks one former Tory staffer. The bookies agree and offer 10/1 on a Conservative victory.
Between them, Labour and the Conservatives mopped up 92% of votes in Newport West in 2017. This time nine other parties are battling for the scraps. The UK Independence Party, which polled 15% in the seat in 2015 but only 2.5% two years later, now faces competition from a plethora of tiny parties with the same lines on Europe and immigration. Neil Hamilton, a disgraced former Tory MP turned UKIP candidate, offers a blunt pitch to voters who are fed up with Britain’s mainstream politicians: “Kick them up the arse: vote Hamilton.” Ardent Europhiles, such as an upstart centrist party, Renew, are making a similar pitch from the other end of the political spectrum. If there is to be any Brexit dividend, it is most likely to go to minnows such as these.
This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline "Don’t mention the B-word"（Mar 28th 2019）
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