BOOKS BY ROBERT J. SHILLER 行为金融学
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| Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy And Why It Matters for Global Capitalism Princeton University Press, March 2009, 264 pp. with George Akerlof Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government--simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life--such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes--and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Princeton University Press Translations: |
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| Subprime Solution: How Today’s Global Financial Crisis Happened and What to Do about It Princeton University Press, September 2008, 208 pp. The subprime mortgage crisis has already wreaked havoc on the lives of millions of people and now it threatens to derail the U.S. economy and economies around the world. In this trenchant book, best-selling economist Robert Shiller reveals the origins of this crisis and puts forward bold measures to solve it. He calls for an aggressive response — a restructuring of the institutional foundations of the financial system that will not only allow people once again to buy and sell homes with confidence, but will create the conditions for greater prosperity in America and throughout the deeply interconnected world economy. Shiller blames the subprime crisis on the irrational exuberance that drove the economy's two most recent bubbles — in stocks in the 1990s and in housing between 2000 and 2007. He shows how these bubbles led to the dangerous overextension of credit now resulting in foreclosures, bankruptcies, and write-offs, as well as a global credit crunch. To restore confidence in the markets, Shiller argues, bailouts are needed in the short run. But he insists that these bailouts must be targeted at low-income victims of subprime deals. In the longer term, the subprime solution will require leaders to revamp the financial framework by deploying an ambitious package of initiatives to inhibit the formation of bubbles and limit risks, including better financial information; simplified legal contracts and regulations; expanded markets for managing risks; home equity insurance policies; income-linked home loans; and new measures to protect consumers against hidden inflationary effects. Princeton University Press Other Editions: Translations: |
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| The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century Princeton University Press, April 2003, 400 pp. In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society's obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller's admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ''ordinary riches,'' so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future. Chinese simplified characters: Chinese People's University Press/Liang Jing Publishing Studio, China Translations: |
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| Irrational Exuberance Princeton University Press, March 2000 (paperback Broadway Books, April 2001) 2nd Edition: Princeton University Press, 2005 (paperback Currency/Doublday 2006) This first edition of this book was a broad study, drawing on a wide range of published research and historical evidence, of the enormous stock market boom that started around 1982 and picked up incredible speed after 1995. Although it took as its specific starting point this ongoing boom, it placed it in the context of stock market booms generally, and it also made concrete suggestions regarding policy changes that should be initiated in response to this and other such booms. The book argued that the boom represents a speculative bubble, not grounded in sensible economic fundamentals. Part one of the book considered structural factors behind the boom. A list of twelve precipitating factors that appear to be its ultimate causes was given. Amplification mechanisms, naturally-occurring Ponzi processes, that enlarge the effects of these precipitating factors, were described. Part Two discussed cultural factors, the effects of the news media, and of "new era" economic thinking. Part Three discussed psychological factors, psychological anchors for the market and herd behavior. Part Four discussed attempts to rationalize exuberance: efficient markets theory and theories that investors are learning. Part Five presented policy options and actions that should be taken. Hardcover 296 pages, paperback 304 pages. The second edition, 2005, added an analysis of the real estate bubble as similar to the stock market bubble that preceded it, and warned that "Significant further rises in these markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines. The bad outcome could be that eventual declines would result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well. Another long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession." Thus, the second edition of this book was among the first to warn of the global financial crisis that began with the subprime mortgage debacle in 2007. Contents, Preface and Sample Chapter and Online Data. Stock market data used in this book: Excel file (.xls), Housing market data used in this book: Excel file (.xls). Other Editions: Scribe Publications paperback 2000 (Australia and New Zealand) Princeton University Press paperback 2001 (UK only) Audible.com, audio edition 2000 New Age International (P) Limited Publishers, for India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan Translations: Arabic: Obeikan Publishers, Saudi Arabia Chinese (simplified characters): Chinese People's University Press, China/Liang Jing Publishing Studio Chinese (complex characters): China Times Publishers, Taiwan French: Valor editions, France German: Campus Verlag, Germany Greek: Livanis Publications, Greece Hungarian: Alinea, Hungary Italian: Il Mulino,Italy Korean: Maeil Business Newspapers, Korea Japanese: Diamond, Japan Macedonian: Securities and Exchange Commission, Macedonia Portuguese: Makron, Brazil Spanish: Turner Publications, Spain/Oceana Mexico Turkish: Rota Publishers, Turkey |
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| Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks Oxford University Press, 1993
It is proposed that a new class of markets, macro markets, markets for claims on aggregate income and service flows, be established. These markets would help people to manage the biggest economic risks facing society. Our existing financial markets are inadequate to deal with such risks. Our stock markets are markets for claims on corporate dividends, and yet the latter are only a few percent of national incomes, only 3 percent in the United States. The proposal here is to establish liquid international markets for claims on the other 97 percent. These would include markets for national incomes, components and aggregates of national incomes, and real estate. Establishing such unprecedented new markets presents some technical problesm which this book attempts to solve. There are proposals for perpetual futures market design, and for new index number construction methods for cash settlement of contracts. [254 pages] Contents: 1. Introduction, 2. Psychological Barriers, 3. Mechanisms for Hedging Long Streams of Income, 4. National Income and Labor Income Markets, 5. Real Estate and Other Markets, 6. The Construction of Index Numbers for Contract Settlement, 7. Index Numbers: Issues and Alternatives, 8. The Problem of Index Revisions, 9. Making It Happen, Notes, References, Index Translations: |
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| Market Volatility (ISBN 0-262-69151-5, $22.00), MIT Press, Cambridge MA, 1989. The origins of price movements are poorly known in all speculative markets: markets for corporate stocks, bonds, homes, land, commercial structures, commodities, collectables, and foreign exchange. Why do stock prices often change up or down 20% in a year's time? Why do long term bond prices sometimes change up or down as much? Why do we sometimes find "hot" markets for homes, with prices sometimes jumping or more 20% in a year, after years of stable prices? The book presents basic research on the ultimate causes of price volatility in speculative markets, on the causes that make good economic sense and on the causes that are psychological or sociological in origin. The research, conducted over the last dozen years, includes both my own work and joint research with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. About two thirds of the book consists of previously published articles. [464 pages] Chapter 26 and Online Data Contents: Introduction, 1. Stock Prices and Social Dynamics, 2. Fashions, Fads and Bubbles in Financial Markets, 3.The Stock Market: Overview, 4. Stock Market Volatility, An Introductory Survey, 5. Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends, 6. The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency, 7. The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality, 8. Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends, 9. The Dividend-Ratio Model and Expected Dividends, 10. Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends, 11. Factors and Fundamentals, 12. The Bond Market: Overview, 13. Bond Market Volatility: An Introductory Suvery, 14. The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates, 15. The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure, 16. Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models, 17. The Real Estate Market: Overview, 18. The Efficiency of the Market for Single Family Homes, 19. The Aggregate Economy, Overview, 20. Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability, 21 The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices, 22. Popular Models and Investor Behavior, Overview, 23. Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence, 24. The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets, 25. Concluding Notes, 26, Data Series, Author Index, Subject Index Translations: |
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