The Fed's Downside

面对经济困境，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)决定放手一搏。但问题是，这可能只会孳生市场恐惧，而无法提振投资者信心。这正是美联储惊人意外战术的主要风险。该机构决定收购3,000亿美元的长期美国国债和至多1.25万亿美元房地美(Freddie Mac)和房利美(Fannie Mae)发行的抵押贷款支持证券。10年期美国国债价格走高，导致收益率下挫将近半个百分点至2.53%。但两个重要的市场恐惧指标随即闪出红色警告：金价飙升6%，美元走软。一家央行发行货币收购大规模金融资产是极不寻常的。除非美联储只是暂时收购，规模足以刺激信贷市场和美国经济复苏，这种非常举动才能取得成功。任何有关美联储举措影响力正在消退的迹象都会推高市场对央行进一步买入的预期。如果美联储作出回应，其资产负债表进一步膨胀，那么就加剧市场的通货膨胀忧虑，挫伤美元人气，进一步推高金价。据巴克莱(Barclays Capital)预计，考虑到美国政府未来六个月的国债发行量，美联储计划收购的3,000亿美元约占其中的28%。要将收益率保持在更低的水准，这或许意味着美联储需要加大支出。美联储周三决定加大收购抵押贷款支持证券，表明了该机构继续支出的意愿。投资者应当追寻美元和国债收益率之间的关系。过度宽松的货币政策可能会给美元带来沉重压力。这意味着海外投资者可能会要求更高的回报，他们持有着将近一半的已发行国债总额。受到美联储拟议干预的影响，国债收益率目前处于人为的低位。这可能将投资者推向风险较高的资产──这正是美联储所希望的。但这可能还会吓退海外投资者，而美国不断膨胀的财政赤字需要他们的资金。Peter Eavis相关阅读零利率时代美联储还能做些什么？ 2009-03-18央行对抗危机 时机与规模是关键 2009-03-16美联储研判下一步注资举措 2009-03-11 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年03月19日10:23', 'FNM'));Fannie Mae总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：FNMdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年03月19日10:23', 'FRE'));Freddie Mac总部地点：美国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：FRE


The problem with desperate measures: They can end up stoking fear, not confidence.That's the main risk with Federal Reserve's shock and awe tactic of buying $300 billion in longer-term Treasurys and up to $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities issued Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.The 10-year Treasury jumped, causing the yield to fall almost half a percentage point to 2.53%. But two key fear indicators immediately flashed red: Gold soared 6%, and the dollar weakened.It's highly unusual for a central bank to print money to buy large amounts of financial assets. Such unorthodoxy succeeds only if its purchases are temporary - and sufficient to kick start credit markets and the economy.Any sign their impact is fleeting would raise expectations of further buying. If the Fed responds and balloons its balance sheet further, inflation fears intensify, hurting the dollar and pushing gold even higher.The Fed's $300 billion would account for around 28% of government issuance in the next six months according to Barclays Capital. To keep yields low beyond that might mean even heavier spending. The Fed's decision Wednesday to ratchet up the purchase of mortgage-backed securities underscores its willingness to keep spending.Investors should track the relationship between the dollar and Treasury yields. Ultra-loose monetary policy can debase the currency. That means foreigners, with around half of all outstanding Treasurys, could demand higher returns.Yields are now artificially low because of proposed Fed intervention. That might push investors into riskier assets - something the Fed wants. It could also scare foreign investors, who are needed to fund the ballooning fiscal deficit.-By Peter Eavis-0-Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.