Odd Couple: Commodities, Fundamentals

“脱钩”一词曾用来描述对新兴市场摆脱发达市场实现增长的期望。现在这个词可以用在大宗商品与经济基本面上。近期大宗商品普遍出现了不俗的涨幅。纽约商交所原油期货已从12月份的低点上涨了一倍以上，达到每桶68.55美元，80美元再度被视为一个现实的目标。被视为大宗商品需求先行指标的波罗的海干散货航运指数(Baltic Dry Index)已从去年12月份的低点上涨了6倍，近期已经连续22天走高。越来越多的人对这种走势表示怀疑，他们认为全球经济才刚刚出现了一丝缓和的迹象。人们普遍预计当前的复苏缺乏后劲，因为房地产市场的低迷，美国消费者仍在继续努力偿还债务。与此同时，全球大宗商品供应相对于需求来说依然偏高。在美国能源部定于周三发布的报告中，预计美国的原油汽油和其他石油产品的库存上周都出现了下降。但是，不包括战略石油储备在内，库存仍接近10年来的最高水平。市场希望看到的除了细节，还是细节。两个强有力的因素正在发挥支撑大宗商品价格的作用，使其能够抗拒供求基本面的差异。中国就是其中之一：即使中国的经济复苏昙花一现，但它也很可能继续大肆购买大宗商品。BMO Capital Markets商品策略师米莱克(Bart Melek)说，自2003年以来，中国的黄金储备已经增长了一倍以上，目前正在增加原油铜等材料的库存，这既是为了未来的使用，也是保护巨额美元储备免受贬值冲击。全球的流动性则是另一个因素。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家费尔斯(Joachim Fels)和普拉德汉(Manoj Pradhan)说，全球货币供应量与国内生产总值的比率目前处于前所未有的高水平，这支持了他们所说的“全球流动性周期”，让现金流入到推高资产价格的投资者手中。他们说，类似的周期曾在过去10年里支撑了科技股泡沫和房地产泡沫。这些因素都表明，尽管大宗商品不是衰退的避风港，但在复苏乏力的情况下可能仍会表现活跃。Mark Gongloff相关阅读中国大宗商品进口增长的背后 2009-05-13中国在大宗商品进口问题上面临两难 2009-04-27大宗商品开出“香蕉球” 2009-04-24大宗商品走势有别 黄金依然风头不减 2009-04-03


The term 'decoupling' once described the hope that emerging markets could grow without developed markets. Now it could refer to commodities and economic fundamentals.The recent commodities rally has been impressive and broad. Nymex crude-oil futures have more than doubled from their December lows to $68.55 a barrel, with $80 a barrel again considered a realistic prospect.The Baltic Dry index of shipping costs for bulk goods, considered a forerunner of commodity demand, is up sixfold from its December low and is enjoying a 22-day winning streak.This boomlet has a growing chorus of skeptics, who make the observation that the global economy has only just caught its breath. And the recovery is widely expected to be anemic, as U.S. consumers continue to work down a mountain of debt amid a smoldering real-estate market.Meanwhile, global commodity supplies are still high relative to demand. The Energy Department is expected to report Wednesday that U.S. inventories of crude oil, gasoline and other petroleum products fell last week. But, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, inventories are still near their highest levels in a decade.Details, details, say the markets. Two powerful factors are working to support commodity prices that may resist such niceties as fundamental supply and demand.China is one: Even if its nascent economic recovery falters, it will likely keep gobbling commodities. China has more than doubled its gold holdings since 2003 and is accumulating bigger inventories of crude, copper and other materials -- both for future use and to protect against the potential decline in value of its massive dollar holdings, says Bart Melek, commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets.Global liquidity is another. The ratio of global money supply to gross domestic product has never been higher, according to Morgan Stanley economists Joachim Fels and Manoj Pradhan -- supporting what they call a 'global liquidity cycle' that puts cash into the hands of investors who bid up assets. Similar cycles supported the tech-stock and housing bubbles in the past decade, the economists say.Together, these factors suggest that commodities, while not recession-proof, might stay buoyant even in a sluggish recovery.Mark Gongloff