Property finds a pulse in Hong Kong
复活节期间，香港出现了奇怪的情况：房地产代理公司似乎东山再起，重新焕发了活力，卖房者的手机上都是它们留下的短信。房地产业是香港经济保持活力的源泉。目前香港的房价或许仍比2008年的高点下滑了三分之一，但交易正在再次涌现，此前一片沉寂的房地产业再度活跃起来。一家经纪机构说，复活节三天的销售量比过去半年还要多。问题在于，这是否真的是反弹的开始？市场还有各种悬而未决的问题，但一些分析师认为，最近中国政府宣布香港成为人民币交易离岸中心的举措可能有助于支撑香港的房地产价格。其中存在的一个风险是，公认高度动荡和投资驱动的香港房地产市场可能只是在跟随股市的反弹。信心在香港可能瞬息万变，随着熊市反弹的转瞬即逝，这种交易的热潮或许也会迅速消退。毕竟，香港实体经济仍在导致工作岗位大量减少，今年第一季度的失业率已经达到了5.2%。另一个令人感到不安的原因是投机，房产和股票价格的上涨可能主要来自内地贷款热释放出的资金。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)在一份新的报告中客观分析了信贷刺激的规模。从2008年12月到今年2月，中国大陆的月贷款额比12个月前的同期高出了3倍。无可争议的是：这个贷款势头是难以延续的。对于那些担心我们正处于熊市反弹之中的人来说，德意志银行对中国面临W型复苏的预测可能不会受到欢迎。在刺激措施的提振之后，由于出口和固定资产投资的下降，我们将看到经济增长再度回落。这种预测是基于如下预期，即同此前商业周期的谷底一样，固定资产投资将回落到个位数。尽管中国推出了大规模的刺激措施，但房地产钢铁纺织品和电子产品仍不可避免地将出现明显的滑坡。过去的经验也表明，中国的出口将面临困难时期，这是因为它们将主要依赖于欧美的经济增长。德意志银行称，事实上，由于中国国内生产总值在历史上主要受到投资周期的推动，中国经济的复苏甚至可能会比亚洲其它国家落后一年。因此，如果我们考虑到中国控制信贷和国内生产总值增长，以及股市可能再度下跌的风险，香港的资产市场可能也会面临着困难时期。但是不久前将香港作为离岸人民币交易中心的举措让情况变得更为复杂了。野村(Nomura)在新的股票策略报告中说，香港的货币基础出现了爆炸式增长，这凸显出人民币交易的发展，而不是中国的银行贷款热。这正在支持房地产和资产价格。他们认为，金融市场低估了人民币交易举措的影响。这些举措中包括实施人民币2,000亿元（293亿美元）货币互换协议，并在上海和广东省的四个城市试点跨境贸易人民币结算。2008年，港澳与内地的双边贸易额超过了2,000亿美元。香港从事人民币跨境贸易结算的能力能够增加香港的人民币存款。另外，东亚银行(Bank of East Asia)上周宣布了发行人民币债券的计划。野村说，随着越来越多的企业和个人投资者愿意持有银行能够提供更高收益率的人民币存款，这也将提高香港的人民币存款基础。这或许就能解释香港的银行在瞄准这些新的存款机会的同时，为何开始变得愿意放贷了。房地产经纪商说，银行明显在更积极地发放抵押贷款。总体而言，这可能会减轻置业者对香港将陷入新一轮通货紧缩漩涡的疑虑。尽管目前几乎所有贸易数据都很难看，香港至少还会成为人民币离岸交易的一个主要中心。虽然这看起来像是北京的关照之举，但它也有助于中国走向人民币的完全可兑换。野村说，香港将从人民币离岸中心的发展中受益最多。野村不建议购买有形财产，而是推荐买进蓝筹股新鸿基地产(Sun Hung Kai Properties)的股票。Craig Stephen(本文译自Market Watch, Craig Stephen是MarketWatch的自由撰稿人。)相关阅读香港写字楼租金超出伦敦居世界首位 2009-02-26香港12月份房地产交易量较上年同期下降65.1%，至5,437笔 2009-01-05香港“负资产”房主激增 2008-11-24香港处处可见经济放缓迹象 2008-11-04
Something strange happened over Easter in Hong Kong. It was as if property agents were reborn, bursting into life and leaving a string of messages on the cell phones of flat-sellers.Prices might still be up to a third off their 2008 peak, but transactions are being seen again and previously moribund property -- the lifeblood of the local economy -- again has a pulse. One agency reported they did more sales in three days at Easter than the previous six months.The question is whether this is really the start of a rebound? There are still various market overhangs, but some analysts suggest recent moves to make Hong Kong an offshore center for yuan trading can help to shore up property asset prices.One risk is that the notoriously volatile and investment-driven Hong Kong property market is merely following the stock market rebound. Confidence can turn on a dime in Hong Kong, and this transaction flurry could dry up in the flash of a bear-market rally. The real economy is still shedding jobs fast, after all, with unemployment reaching 5.2% in the first three months of the year.Another reason to feel uneasy is speculation that much of the gain in property and stocks comes from a recycling of money from the recent lending spree by mainland Chinese. Deutsche Bank, in a new report, puts the size of the lending stimulus in perspective. Monthly lending from December 2008 to February of this year was three times higher than the same period 12 months earlier. It's hard to disagree with their conclusion -- this level of lending is simply unsustainable.And for those worried we are just in a bear rally, Deutsche Bank's forecast that China faces a W-shape recovery will be unwelcome. After the stimulus boost, we will see another dip in growth due to declining exports and fixed-asset investment.This forecast is based on expectations that, like in the troughs of previous business cycles, fixed asset investment will fall to single digits. The large declines in the big sectors of property, steel, textiles and electronics will swamp even China's massive stimulus spend.Past experience also shows China's exports will be in for a hard time, as they are a leveraged play on European and U.S. economic growth. In fact, as China's gross domestic product is historically driven by the investment cycle, Deutsche Bank say its recovery may even lag the rest of Asia by one year.So if we consider the risk of China putting the breaks on lending and GDP growth and, possibly, equities entering a new down leg, Hong Kong's asset markets could still face a rough time.But then there are recent initiatives to make Hong Kong an offshore yuan-trading center to throw into the mix. Nomura said in a new equity-strategy report that Hong Kong has seen an explosion in its monetary base, highlighting new developments in yuan trading rather than China's bank lending spree. This is supporting property and asset prices.They argue that financial markets are underestimating the impact of yuan-trading initiatives, including putting a 200 billion yuan ($29.3 billion) currency-swap agreement in place and a pilot scheme for cross-border trade settlements with Shanghai and four cities in Guangdong province. Bilateral trade between Hong Kong/Macau and mainland China exceeded $200 billion in 2008.The ability of Hong Kong to do cross-border trade settlements in yuan could swell yuan deposits held in Hong Kong. Separately, last week the Bank of East Asia (HK:23: news , chart , profile ) announced plans to issue yuan bonds. Nomura says this will also boost the yuan deposit base in Hong Kong, as more corporations and retail investors are encouraged to hold yuan deposits for which banks can offer higher yields.This might explain the new-found willingness of Hong Kong banks to lend when they eye these new deposit-taking opportunities. Property agents reported banks are becoming noticeably more aggressive offering mortgages.Together this is likely to ease fears among property buyers that Hong Kong will slide into a new deflationary spiral.And while almost all trade figures look pretty ugly just now, Hong Kong at least looks set to become a key center for what's left with this offshore yuan role. While this might look like a favor from Beijing, it also helps China move towards having a fully convertible currency.Nomura says Hong Kong will benefit most from the development of an offshore yuan center. Rather than buying physical property, it has added blue-chip developer Sun Hung Kai Properties to stocks its recommendsCraig Stephen
Something strange happened over Easter in Hong Kong. It was as if property agents were reborn, bursting into life and leaving a string of messages on the cell phones of flat-sellers.Prices might still be up to a third off their 2008 peak, but transactions are being seen again and previously moribund property -- the lifeblood of the local economy -- again has a pulse. One agency reported they did more sales in three days at Easter than the previous six months.The question is whether this is really the start of a rebound? There are still various market overhangs, but some analysts suggest recent moves to make Hong Kong an offshore center for yuan trading can help to shore up property asset prices.One risk is that the notoriously volatile and investment-driven Hong Kong property market is merely following the stock market rebound. Confidence can turn on a dime in Hong Kong, and this transaction flurry could dry up in the flash of a bear-market rally. The real economy is still shedding jobs fast, after all, with unemployment reaching 5.2% in the first three months of the year.Another reason to feel uneasy is speculation that much of the gain in property and stocks comes from a recycling of money from the recent lending spree by mainland Chinese. Deutsche Bank, in a new report, puts the size of the lending stimulus in perspective. Monthly lending from December 2008 to February of this year was three times higher than the same period 12 months earlier. It's hard to disagree with their conclusion -- this level of lending is simply unsustainable.And for those worried we are just in a bear rally, Deutsche Bank's forecast that China faces a W-shape recovery will be unwelcome. After the stimulus boost, we will see another dip in growth due to declining exports and fixed-asset investment.This forecast is based on expectations that, like in the troughs of previous business cycles, fixed asset investment will fall to single digits. The large declines in the big sectors of property, steel, textiles and electronics will swamp even China's massive stimulus spend.Past experience also shows China's exports will be in for a hard time, as they are a leveraged play on European and U.S. economic growth. In fact, as China's gross domestic product is historically driven by the investment cycle, Deutsche Bank say its recovery may even lag the rest of Asia by one year.So if we consider the risk of China putting the breaks on lending and GDP growth and, possibly, equities entering a new down leg, Hong Kong's asset markets could still face a rough time.But then there are recent initiatives to make Hong Kong an offshore yuan-trading center to throw into the mix. Nomura said in a new equity-strategy report that Hong Kong has seen an explosion in its monetary base, highlighting new developments in yuan trading rather than China's bank lending spree. This is supporting property and asset prices.They argue that financial markets are underestimating the impact of yuan-trading initiatives, including putting a 200 billion yuan ($29.3 billion) currency-swap agreement in place and a pilot scheme for cross-border trade settlements with Shanghai and four cities in Guangdong province. Bilateral trade between Hong Kong/Macau and mainland China exceeded $200 billion in 2008.The ability of Hong Kong to do cross-border trade settlements in yuan could swell yuan deposits held in Hong Kong. Separately, last week the Bank of East Asia (HK:23: news , chart , profile ) announced plans to issue yuan bonds. Nomura says this will also boost the yuan deposit base in Hong Kong, as more corporations and retail investors are encouraged to hold yuan deposits for which banks can offer higher yields.This might explain the new-found willingness of Hong Kong banks to lend when they eye these new deposit-taking opportunities. Property agents reported banks are becoming noticeably more aggressive offering mortgages.Together this is likely to ease fears among property buyers that Hong Kong will slide into a new deflationary spiral.And while almost all trade figures look pretty ugly just now, Hong Kong at least looks set to become a key center for what's left with this offshore yuan role. While this might look like a favor from Beijing, it also helps China move towards having a fully convertible currency.Nomura says Hong Kong will benefit most from the development of an offshore yuan center. Rather than buying physical property, it has added blue-chip developer Sun Hung Kai Properties to stocks its recommendsCraig Stephen