同一个中国，同一个梦想？麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Co.)的分析师们说，情况并非如此。该公司认为，有22个“中国”，它们都有各自不同的渴望。当然，这家咨询公司不是“分裂主义分子”──北京对任何被视为会挑战其主权的人都会使用这一称呼。麦肯锡之所以将中国划分为22块，是为了让其客户更好地认识到，中国各地的消费模式存在巨大差异。该公司分析师马思默(Max Magni)说，中国是一个复杂的地方，它是一块大陆，而非一个国家。在麦肯锡最新进行的调查中，该公司研究人员依照产业构成政府政策人口特征和消费偏好等标准考察了中国815座城市。麦肯锡在其《2009年中国消费者年度研究报告》中将中国划分为22个城市群，每个城市群是指以一座城市为中心的人口居住区。麦肯锡此举旨在强调，中国存在着众多各不相同的市场。麦肯锡是基于自己在2008年12月至2009年3月间对中国58座城市15,000名消费者的当面访问得出上述结论的。该公司上个月又公布了另一份有关中国消费情况的长篇报告。其结论是，虽然2020年时中国有可能成为世界第三大消费市场，但届时中国的私人消费开支仍然只会占国内生产总值(GDP)的36%，这一比例是所有大国中最低的。麦肯锡解读中国(McKinsey Insights China)在其有关中国城市群的报告中说，此次全球金融危机以不同的方式影响着中国不同的城市，那些希望从中国消费者身上赚钱的企业应该了解到哪里去赚钱，以及如何赚钱。麦肯锡称，营销人员要想在中国市场上做得更好，应该在一个城市群做大做强，而不是在全国遍地开花。推动中国各地市场出现差异化的是城市化，未来15年内中国预计将有3.50亿人移居到城市。马思默说，中国的复杂性之巨大是我们在世界其他地区从未见到的。中国各地的消费模式差别很大。比如，麦肯锡的分析师们发现，在相对富裕且居民主要为广东本地人的广州市，消费者对某些品牌的忠诚度要远高于距该市仅几个小时车程的深圳市，同在广东省的深圳是一座汇聚了全国各地移民的人口熔炉。媒体也会推动人们做出消费选择。上海约62%的消费者说，当地电视频道比全国性电视频道对他们的影响更大，而80%的昆明消费者则说，他们更关注全国性的电视台。麦肯锡预计，从目前到2015年期间，在中国100座大中城市中，包括广州在内49座城市的GDP和消费增速会落后于全国平均水平。上海的这两项增速预计会达到全国平均水平，而北京则会超过全国平均水平，这座城市的消费水平在2008至2015年期间有可能增长一倍。这一市场细分可能是重要的。麦肯锡的分析师们说，由于当前这场金融危机，许多公司都渴望能在中国市场立竿见影地获利，而不想在这里进行或许不能迅速赚钱的战略性投资。麦肯锡分析师援引该公司一位客户的话说，长期内赚钱的最佳方式就是短期内赚到钱。James T. Areddy（“中国日志”（China Journal）关注全球第一人口大国的发展变化，《华尔街日报》获奖团队数十位记者倾情献稿，Sky Canaves主笔。欢迎读者发送邮件至[email protected]或在下面评论栏中发表评论和建议。）
One China? One dream?Not so, say McKinsey & Co. analysts. The firm counts 22 Chinas, each of them with different aspirations.Of course, the consulting firm isn't being 'splittist' ─ the term Beijing uses to deride anyone seen to challenge its sovereignty.Instead, McKinsey's count is the latest attempt to give its clients insight into what it finds are deep differences in consumer patterns throughout the world's most populous nation.'China is a complicated place,' says McKinsey analyst Max Magni. 'It is a continent, not a country.'For their latest survey, McKinsey researchers studied 815 Chinese cities along lines including industry composition, government policy, demographic characteristics and consumer preferences. The 22 city clusters population areas anchored by a city it identified in the 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study are meant to underscore how the nation has many markets.Its findings are based on face-to-face interviews with 15,000 consumers in 58 cities between last December and March 2009.The firm last month published another large report on consumerism in China that concluded that it could become the third largest consumer market by 2020, but that private consumption expenditure remains only 36% of gross domestic product, the lowest of any large country.For its 'cluster' report, McKinsey Insights China says the global financial crisis has affected different cities in different ways, and that companies hoping to tap into the Chinese consumer should understand both where and how to play. The firm says marketers would do better to build a defensibly large market position in one city, rather than small positions over a wide area.Driving the differentiation between markets within China is its urbanization, with 350 million people likely to move to urban areas over the coming 15 years. 'There's a magnitude of complexity (in China) we've never seen in the world,' says Mr. Magni.Consumption patterns can vary widely. McKinsey analysts found consumers in the relatively well-off and largely Cantonese city of Guangzhou, for instance, to be far more loyal to certain brands than those who live just a few hours drive across the same province in the national melting pot city of Shenzhen.Media also help drive decision making. About 62% of those in Shanghai say they are influenced more by local television channels than national ones, while 80% of those in Kunming say national broadcasters hold their attention.Guangzhou is one of the 49 cities among the biggest 100 that McKinsey determined are likely to lag behind the average GDP and consumption growth through 2015. Shanghai will about match averages, and Beijing could exceed them, possibly seeing its levels of consumption doubling between 2008 and 2015.The breakdown could be important.The financial crisis, McKinsey analysts said, has made many companies keen to tap China for profits immediately, rather than set down strategic stakes that may or may not immediately make money.One of the firm's analysts quoted a client as saying, 'the best way to be profitable in the long term is to be profitable in the short term.'James T. Areddy