A German study suggests that people who were too optimistic about their future actually faced greater risk of disability or death within 10 years than those pessimists who expected their future to be worse.
德国的一项研究表明，那些对未来过于乐观的人在10年内实际面临的残疾或死亡风险比那些预计未来会更糟的悲观者更大。
The paper, published this March in Psychology and Aging, examined health and welfare surveys from roughly 40,000 Germans between ages 18 and 96. The surveys were conducted every year from 1993 to 2003.
这篇论文发表在今年3月的《心理学与老龄化》期刊上，对大约40000名年龄在18岁至96岁之间的德国人的健康和福利调查进行了研究。这些调查从1993年至2003年每年进行一次。
Survey respondents were asked to estimate their present and future life satisfaction on a scale of 0 to 10, among other questions.
调查对象在其他问题中，被要求从0到10给他们现在和未来的生活满意度打分。
The researchers found that young adults (age 18 to 39) routinely overestimated their future life satisfaction, while middle-aged adults (age 40 to 64) more accurately predicted how they would feel in the future. Adults of 65 and older, however, were far more likely to underestimate their future life satisfaction. Not only did they feel more satisfied than they thought they would, the older pessimists seemed to suffer a lower ratio of disability and death for the study period.
研究人员发现，年轻人（18岁至39岁）经常高估他们未来的生活满意度，而中年人（40岁至64岁）能更准确地预测他们未来的感受。不过，65岁及以上的成年人更可能低估他们未来的生活满意度。他们不仅感受到未来比想象的更满意，而且研究期间年长的悲观主义者残疾和死亡的比例似乎更低。
“We observed that being too optimistic in predicting a better future than actually observed was associated with a greater risk of disability and a greater risk of death within the following decade,” wrote Frieder R. Lang, a professor at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg.
“我们注意到，在预测未来过于乐观，超出实际，会导致在接下来的十年内残疾和死亡的风险更大。”纽伦堡埃朗根大学得教授弗里德• R•郎写道。
Lang and his colleagues believed that people who were pessimistic about their future may be more careful about their actions than people who expected a rosy future.
朗和他的同事们相信，那些对自己的未来感到悲观的人可能比那些期望美好未来的人对自己的行为更加谨慎。
“Seeing a dark future may encourage positive evaluations of the actual self and may contribute to taking improved precautions,” the authors wrote.
“对未来失望可能会鼓励对真实自我的积极评价，并有助于采取更好的预防措施,” 作者写道。
Surprisingly, compared with those in poor health or who had low incomes, respondents who enjoyed good health or income were associated with expecting a greater decline. Also, the researchers said that higher income was related to a greater risk of disability.
令人惊讶的是，与那些健康状况不佳或收入较低的人相比，健康状况良好或收入较高的受访者预期下降幅度更大。此外，研究人员说，收入越高，残疾风险越大。
The authors of the study noted that there were limitations to their conclusions. Illness, medical treatment and personal loss could also have driven health outcomes.
该研究的作者指出，他们的结论存在局限性。疾病、医疗和个人损失也可能导致健康问题。
However, the researchers said a pattern was clear. “We found that from early to late adulthood, individuals adapt their expectations of future life satisfaction from optimistic, to accurate, to pessimistic,” the authors concluded.
然而，研究人员说，模式很明确。“我们发现，从成年早期到晚期，个体对未来生活满意度的期望从乐观、准确到悲观。”