Memory-Chip Sector Bodes Well
存储芯片似乎已经触及其商业周期的底部。对于广泛的半导体行业来说，这是个重要的利好信号；半导体行业如今正处于迄今最为严重的衰退中。对总规模2,600亿美元的全球半导体行业来说，存储芯片所占权重只有14%。但存储芯片却是反映行业业绩的领先指标，因为作为广泛使用的产品，它们的地位类似大宗商品。存储芯片的市场低迷始于2007年初，预示了去年半导体整体行业的困境；在金融危机引发全球经济衰退之后，半导体行业的低迷状态愈加恶化。全球两大存储芯片制造商三星电子(Samsung Electronics)和海力士半导体(Hynix Semiconductor)上周五双双公布了第一季度业绩，这两家韩国公司当季的芯片业务相关亏损较上年同期有所收窄。总部位于美国加州的市场研究公司iSuppli Corp.存储芯片市场分析师Nam Hyung Kim说，从第一季度的状况来看，我不得不相信存储芯片市场已经触底。从现在开始，这个市场将进入复苏阶段。但问题是制造商还要很长的时间才能实现复苏。本月早些时候，其他芯片领域的领头羊，例如微处理器领域的英特尔(Intel Corp.)和数字信号处理器领域的德州仪器公司(Texas Instruments Inc.)先后公布了高于预期的季度财报。这也使得市场猜测低迷的半导体行业可能来到了转折点。随着计算功能逐步普及至手机，NAND闪存在存储卡数码音乐播放器和其他数码产品中的使用出现了爆炸式的增长，从2002年至2007年，存储芯片制造商经历了最长时期的上升时期。2004年三星芯片业务的营业利润率达到了41%的公司最高水平。丰厚的利润刺激三星和其他公司纷纷大举投资新建存储芯片工厂，由此带来的供过于求最终导致产品价格和利润在2007年初开始大幅下滑。在存储芯片产量飙升的同时，个人电脑和使用存储芯片的其他数码产品却遭遇了增长放缓。去年年初，小型存储芯片制造商出现亏损，到年底的时候，业界领先者三星电子也无利可图。许多制造商相应地削减了产量，目前产量远远低于产能。即便如此，Kim预计就算占全球DRAM芯片产能大约四分之一的台湾芯片制造商全部停产，这个行业也仍然产能过剩。另外一个可能有利的迹象是，存储芯片的现货市场价格过去六周大幅上扬。集邦全球电子交易市集(DRAMeXchange)的数据显示，上周五主流1G的DRAM芯片的现货均价报1.21美元，较3月11日低点75美分上涨了61%。但行业管理人士仍然持谨慎态度，因为价格上涨可能会促使制造商重新启动部分闲置产能，导致供应明显增加，从而可能再次压低产品价格和利润。三星电子芯片部门副总裁Cho Nam-seong上周五对分析师说，我们并没有看到任何需求好转的明确迹象。存储芯片制造商纷纷大幅削减资本支出以应对当前局面。分析师预计，今年DRAM芯片相关资本支出将从去年的110亿美元和2007年的220亿美元骤降至大约40亿美元，而NAND芯片相关支出将从去年的80亿美元和前年的110亿美元大幅下滑至30亿美元左右。Evan Ramstad相关阅读欧盟即将裁定英特尔存在不正当竞争行为 2009-04-23日本将取消对韩国海力士半导体所产芯片的惩罚性关税－共同社 2009-04-13苹果公司面临专利侵权诉讼 2009-04-09英特尔将推出面向服务器的发热量更低的低功耗芯片 2009-03-28台湾将缩减芯片业重组计划 2009-03-13 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日14:04', '005930.SE'));三星电子英文名称：Samsung Electronics Co.总部地点：韩国(South Korea)上市地点：韩国证交所股票代码：005930document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日14:04', '000660.SE'));海力士半导体英文名称：Hynix Semiconductor Inc.总部地点：韩国(South Korea)上市地点：韩国证交所股票代码：000660document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日14:04', 'SSNHY'));Samsung Electronics Co. (gdr)总部地点：韩国(South Korea)上市地点：NNOTC股票代码：SSNHYdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月27日14:04', 'HXSCF'));Hynix Semiconductor Inc.总部地点：韩国(South Korea)上市地点：NNOTC股票代码：HXSCF
Memory chips appear to have hit the bottom of their business cycle, an important signal for the broader semiconductor industry that is in its worst slump to date.Memory chips account for just 14% of the $260 billion global semiconductor industry. But they are a leading indicator of industry performance because of their commodity-like status as widely used products that are hard to differentiate. The memory downturn that began in early 2007 foreshadowed last year's broader industry troubles, which became worse after the financial-industry crisis led to global recession.The two biggest makers of memory chips, Samsung Electronics Co. and Hynix Corp., both of South Korea, on Friday announced smaller chip-related losses for the first quarter than they experienced a year earlier.'Looking at the first-quarter situation, I have to believe the memory market hit the bottom,' said Nam Hyung Kim, a memory-chip market analyst at iSuppli Corp. in El Segundo, Calif. 'From now, it's the recovery stage. But the problem is the manufacturers have a long way to recover.'Earlier this month, expectation-beating quarterly results from leaders of other chip segments, such as Intel Corp. in microprocessors and Texas Instruments Inc. in digital signal processors, also raised hopes that the industry's downturn may be reaching a turning point.Makers of memory chips experienced their longest upturn ever from 2002 to 2007 as computing functions spread into cellphones and NAND flash memory exploded in use for storage cards, digital music players and other gadgets. In 2004, Samsung's operating profit margin for chips was 41%, a record for the company.Big profits spurred Samsung and others to invest heavily in new factories for memory chips, creating excess capacity that began to sharply erode prices and profits in early 2007. The surge in production came as demand growth for PCs and other digital gadgets that use memory chips slowed. Early last year, small makers of memory chips tumbled into the red and, by year end, industry leader Samsung was also unprofitable.Many manufacturers cut back production in response and are now operating well below their capacity. Even so, Mr. Kim estimated that all of Taiwan's chip makers, which account for about 25% of global DRAM production, could stop work and the industry would still be oversupplied.In another potentially positive signal, spot-market prices for memory chips have risen sharply over the past six weeks. On Friday, the average spot price of the mainstream one-gigabit DRAM chip was $1.21, up 61% from its low of 75 cents on March 11, according to DRAMeXchange.But executives remained cautious as higher prices will likely trigger makers to restart some idled capacity, creating a burst of supply that would damp prices and profits again. 'We are not seeing any clear indication of demand improvement,' Cho Nam-seong, a vice president of Samsung's chip business, told analysts on Friday.Memory-chip makers sharply cut capital spending to cope. Analysts estimate DRAM-related spending will plunge to about $4 billion this year from $11 billion last year and $22 billion in 2007, while spending on NAND will be about $3 billion compared with $8 billion in 2008 and $11 billion in 2007.Evan Ramstad
Memory chips appear to have hit the bottom of their business cycle, an important signal for the broader semiconductor industry that is in its worst slump to date.Memory chips account for just 14% of the $260 billion global semiconductor industry. But they are a leading indicator of industry performance because of their commodity-like status as widely used products that are hard to differentiate. The memory downturn that began in early 2007 foreshadowed last year's broader industry troubles, which became worse after the financial-industry crisis led to global recession.The two biggest makers of memory chips, Samsung Electronics Co. and Hynix Corp., both of South Korea, on Friday announced smaller chip-related losses for the first quarter than they experienced a year earlier.'Looking at the first-quarter situation, I have to believe the memory market hit the bottom,' said Nam Hyung Kim, a memory-chip market analyst at iSuppli Corp. in El Segundo, Calif. 'From now, it's the recovery stage. But the problem is the manufacturers have a long way to recover.'Earlier this month, expectation-beating quarterly results from leaders of other chip segments, such as Intel Corp. in microprocessors and Texas Instruments Inc. in digital signal processors, also raised hopes that the industry's downturn may be reaching a turning point.Makers of memory chips experienced their longest upturn ever from 2002 to 2007 as computing functions spread into cellphones and NAND flash memory exploded in use for storage cards, digital music players and other gadgets. In 2004, Samsung's operating profit margin for chips was 41%, a record for the company.Big profits spurred Samsung and others to invest heavily in new factories for memory chips, creating excess capacity that began to sharply erode prices and profits in early 2007. The surge in production came as demand growth for PCs and other digital gadgets that use memory chips slowed. Early last year, small makers of memory chips tumbled into the red and, by year end, industry leader Samsung was also unprofitable.Many manufacturers cut back production in response and are now operating well below their capacity. Even so, Mr. Kim estimated that all of Taiwan's chip makers, which account for about 25% of global DRAM production, could stop work and the industry would still be oversupplied.In another potentially positive signal, spot-market prices for memory chips have risen sharply over the past six weeks. On Friday, the average spot price of the mainstream one-gigabit DRAM chip was $1.21, up 61% from its low of 75 cents on March 11, according to DRAMeXchange.But executives remained cautious as higher prices will likely trigger makers to restart some idled capacity, creating a burst of supply that would damp prices and profits again. 'We are not seeing any clear indication of demand improvement,' Cho Nam-seong, a vice president of Samsung's chip business, told analysts on Friday.Memory-chip makers sharply cut capital spending to cope. Analysts estimate DRAM-related spending will plunge to about $4 billion this year from $11 billion last year and $22 billion in 2007, while spending on NAND will be about $3 billion compared with $8 billion in 2008 and $11 billion in 2007.Evan Ramstad