Economist 20161024

1. When a bubble is not a bubble

smack of something: to have some of the characteristics or qualities of something

Property market and the sector's auxiliary productions contributed 1/4 of China's GDP. Measures were taken to prevent bubbles in this market,  such as higher down payments and limitation on other residents for investments.

However,  the author does not entirely agree this is a bubble,  for three reasons:

1) healthy household balance sheets

2) prepayments are unlikely due to strict down payment rules and

3) usually buyers are cash rich

The author think the root cause to a heated property market is the imbalance of land supply which is in turn a political problem.




2. Rotten Foundations - in real estate as elsewhere in its economy,  China's short-term fixes mask deep structural problems

Conniption: a fit of rage or hysterics

Stoke: encourage or incite (a strong emotion or tendency)

Juxtaposing this article with the previous one is interesting. Less interestingly written and lacking solid analysis as it sounds, this article focuses on the volatility of perperty prices and again its exponential growth.

This article shares two similar points:

1) strong household balance sheet

2) limited land supply and oversupply in rural sub capital cities.

It does explain why housing investment is more appealing to investors in China.  Still,  personally I find his warning more like a false alarm.

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